New Delhi
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]M[/dropcap]ajority of the exit polls at the end of the fifth round of Bihar elections on Thursday predicted a close to comfortable win for Nitish Kumar-led Grand alliance, but Today’s Chankaya injected a dose of suspense by forecasting a landslide victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.
Out of seven exit polls broadcast on different TV channels , five predicted the formation of Nitiish-led government , one gave edge to the BJP, amd Today’s Chanakya gave 155 of the 243 seats to the BJP and its three allies and 83 seats to the Grand Alliance. Today’s Chanakya;’s findings were broadcast on News 24 Channels.
NewsX-CNX said the JD-U and its allies would get 135 seats and NDA would win only 95 seats.
India Today-Cicero poll predicted 113 to 127 seats for the NDA comprising BJP, LJP, HAM (Secular) and RLSP and 111 to 123 for the JDU-led alliance.
The Times Now-CVoter survey gave 122 seats to the Grand Alliance and 111 to the NDA.
The ABP News gave the BJP and its allies 130 seats compared to 108 to the JD-U-RJD-Congress alliance.
News Nation also gave the JD-U and its allies an edge, with 120-124 seats, while the BJP and its allies could get 115-119 seats.
India TV-C Voter also predicted 111 seats to the BJP combine and 122 to the Grand Alliance.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]E[/dropcap]xplaining its methodology in a press release, Today’s Chanakya said it carried out a continuous tracking poll in randomly selected assemblies during the election period and Exit Poll on the polling day of each phase. Certain post poll studies were also conducted in Phase 1 to 4 which would help to minimize the sampling error.
“Stratified sampling technique was primarily used to make homogenous subgroups. With the help of systematic random sampling, all possible sampling error was reduced to obtain a homogenous representative sample. Data were collected to the profile of all adults age 18+ including by age, sex, social class, household, work status, literacy level, etc. Proper weights were assigned so that collected data reflects the socio economic conditions of the state. Respondent Sample size was 7865. Wherever needed the tracking data was also collaborated in the outcomes to minimize the sampling error,” it said.
In the outgoing assembly, the JDU and BJP had contested elections and together and won a massive majority. The JDU had won 115 seats and BJP 91. The RJD had won 22 and Congress 04 when they contested on their own.
The JDU-BJP alliance broke in 2013 after Chief Minister Nitish Kumar announced that his party was walking out of NDA over the BJP’s decision to anoint Narendra Modi as the chief of BJP’s campaign committee for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]I[/dropcap]n the Parliament elections, the BJP won 22 of the 40 seats and its allies won nine. RJD and JDU had fought separately and won 4 and 2 seats respectively. Congress, which contested in alliance with RJD, had also won two seats while NCP 1.
| Coalition | Chanakya | Cicero | C-Voter | NewsNation | CNX | A C Nielsen | Times Now |
| MGB | 83 | 117 | 122 | 122 | 132 | 130 | 118 |
| NDA | 155 | 120 | 111 | 117 | 93 | 108 | 117 |
| Others | 3 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 5 | 8 |
We at PerformanceGurus predict a win for Nitish Kumar led MGB. Who is right and who is wrong, only time will tell.
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All the articles are being written based on an article which means if the source is incorrect most of the stories based on it would go wrong too. I for one strongly believe that NDA would win Bihar.