BJP’s victory march can be checked by both National Conference and Congress party if they join hands together.
After recording a stupendous victory in Lok Sabha polls and winning 303 seats, Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) faces the next biggest challenge of forming its own government in the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
But if the current performance of the party in the state is any indication the party is still far away from climbing the ladder of success.
If we dissect the Lok Sabha poll results at the micro level it is evident BJP secured a clear lead in 25 out of 37 Assembly segments in Jammu region.
BJP can only stop both these parties from garnering majority seats if it can further consolidate its voter base in erstwhile Doda district and improve its tally in Jammu region.
In Ladakh region, BJP won 3 out of 4 Assembly segments.
But in Kashmir valley, BJP failed to garner more than 10,000 votes on three Lok Sabha seats.
At present BJP can fairly assume its safe on at least 28 out of 41 seats but still, it is falling short of 16 seats to form its own government.
BJP’s Mission 44 plus?
To form government in the 89 member state assembly BJP need to have 44 MLA’s in its kitty.
Riding high on the crest of the Modi wave in 2014, BJP had attempted Mission 44 plus but fell short of its own target by a large margin. Party could win 25 Assembly seats on its own.
BJP, for the first time, tasted power in the state after forging an alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2015. PDP emerged victorious in Kashmir valley by winning 28 Assembly seats.
The untimely death of PDP patron Mufti Mohd Sayeed later forced BJP to do business with PDP Chief Mehbooba Mufti.
Ironically, the second innings of the alliance in the state witnessed troubled times.
In June 2018, BJP pulled the plug and dumped Mehbooba Mufti midway.
For the first six months, Governor’s rule remained imposed in the state and later President’s rule was imposed.
Can BJP align with a regional political party?
Now the question arises whether BJP can afford to go alone in the Assembly polls or enter into an alliance with any regional party. At present, the possibility of another alliance looks bleak.
BJP government’s stand on Abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A will go a long way in determining the party’s poll performance in the state, whenever Assembly polls will be held in the state.
Kashmir centric regional parties have already started reminding Prime Minister Narendra Modi that even after he emerged more powerful by winning majority of its own he cannot remove Article 35A and Article 370 from the State of Jammu & Kashmir”.
BJP’s victory march can be checked by both National Conference and Congress party if they join hands together.
At present Congress is ahead of the BJP on at least 12 Assembly segments of Jammu region and resurgent National Conference has regained its lost ground in North Kashmir by winning Baramulla seat with a healthy margin.
If both National Conference and Congress can come together they can safely come closer to securing majority seats.
To motivate its cadre on ground zero National Conference top brass has already started gearing up for the Assembly polls and giving a message to the workers that they will surely form Government in the State.
After the poll victory, Dr Farooq Abdullah reiterated his party’s commitment to grant ‘Regional Autonomy‘ to all three regions of the state to end discrimination.
BJP can only stop both these parties from garnering majority seats if it can further consolidate its voter base in erstwhile Doda district and improve its tally in Jammu region.
In addition, BJP can help Sajjad Lone strengthen his party’s base in Kashmir valley. His party garnered majority votes on two Assembly seats of Handwara and Pattan in North Kashmir.
Note:
1. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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Why are my comments awaiting moderation?
ISOLATE KASHMIR VALLEY- LADAHK IS ALREADY AUTONOMOUS BY EXECUTIVE ORDER- SIMILARLY ACTION ON JAMMU..
IN THE NEXT 100 DAYS- ISOLATE KASHMIR VALLEY.
BJP CAN PROBABLE STRENGTHEN ITS LOCAL POLITICAL STAKE- TO MAJORITY.
REMOVE 370 AND 35A- MUST SHOW BACKBONE/SPINE- BJP HAS SPELLED IT OUT- THEY ARE COMMITTED- NOW SHOW BY ACTION- THE PEOPLE IN JAMMU AND LADAHK WILL COVER THE BACK.
FEAR IS NOT THE SOLUTION- 35 A AND 370 IS THE STATUS QUO- IT HAS NOT BROUGHT ANY BENEFIT THE NON HINDU AND MUSLIM POPULATION BIT MORE OF THE SAME- TERROR AND NON DEVELOPMENT, FEAR, DEATH, ECONOMIC BACKWARDNESS, NO JOB CREATION, LACK OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT, LACK OF EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT , POLITICAL MURDER, LACK OF WOMEN PARTICIPATION IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ETC.
THE CURRENT NON BJP SUPPORTING STAKE HOLDERS WANT STATUS QUO- MORE OF THE SAME- BACKWARDNESS AT EVERY LEVEL-SOCIAL,ECONOMIC, TERROR, POLITICAL,INFRSTRUCTURE, HOUSING, JOBS, EDUCATION,QUALITY OF LIFE, EASIER ON DAILY ACTIVITIES OF LIVING BY LOCALS AND MORE.
THE NON BJP POLITICAL PARTIES- WANT POWER, AND MAKING MONEY FOR THEMSELVES- SO THEY AND THEIR FAMILIES GET WEALTHIER AT EVERYBODY ELSE’S EXPENSE.
WE CANNOT ALLOW THE VALLEY TO DECAY AND DIE- BY MAKING WRONG CHOICES BY THE FEW FOR THE FEW.
AND THE FU…..G TERROR STATE NEXT DOOR WILL CONTINUE TO INTERFERE- AND FUND THE INTERNAL/LOCAL TERRORISTS/TERROR SYMPATHIZERS – TO MAKE YOUR DAILY LIVES A PLACE FROM YOUR HELLISH DREAM.
MODI- DO NOT TURN SOFT- THIS IS NOT THE TIME. THIS IS TIME TO SHOW STRENGTH.
Considering the past performance of BJP in J&K while being part of the State Govt.,it seems very difficult for BJP to retain the seats it won in last assembly elections, particularly,if the candidates are repeated.
Sri Lanka could eliminate terrorism from its country. Can we not do it in Jammu and Kashmir?
Sir, if Jammu and Kashmir is trifurcated into Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh, will BJP be able to win in Jammu and Ladakh?