How we computed Hindu, Muslim & Christian growth – Part 3 of Hotspots series

Part 1 of this series titled Hotspots in the Hindi Belt, Part 1 – the Northern Arc lays out the areas where demographics are changing rapidly in India. In Part 2, we discussed the take away messages from this study. In this final and concluding section, we discuss the statistical details of our projections and draw Conclusions.

Section C: Statistical Details of Projections for Religious Demography

[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]F[/dropcap]or all the districts that have been named, we have computed the growth rates across different communities of significance using the constant growth, the polynomial and the logistic models.  We have analysed the results of all the three techniques separately.

Section C.1: Constant Growth Model
In the constant growth model, we have assumed that the average growth over the last 2 decades for the different communities will hold in future and have predicted the populations based on those numbers.  The populations of the various communities in the various districts have been shown above.

In the above graphs, it can be seen that Hindus fall below the 50% mark in both Purnea and Santhal Parganas.  The collapse of Hindus in Santhal Paraganas is catastrophic.  From 90% in 1951, Hindus are set to fall to 42% in 2061, a collapse of nearly 50 percentage points in 100 years.  Both Christians and Muslims are growing by leaps and bounds in the district.  Gurgaon and Bahraich-Gonda are also seeing the Muslim population percentage essentially doubling in 100 years.

Section C.2: Polynomial Model
In the polynomial model, we have fitted a cubic polynomial, minimising the square error for the different communities.  The cubic model can more accurately model the rapid rises and fall in the changes.

In the polynomial model, only the Purnea district will be Hindu minority by 2061.  In the case of the Bahraich-Gonda and Purnea, the constant growth model and the polynomial model agree more or less.  In the case of the Santhal Parganas, the polynomial model puts the Hindu population much higher (nearly 11%) higher than the constant growth model.  This, we believe, is a more accurate representation since once all the tribals have been converted (it is tribals who are converting, for the most part) in the region, the rate of growth of Christian population will subside.  In the case of Gurgaon, since the growth is inorganic in the case of the Hindus (most growth is occurring via immigration than via natural growth), the polynomial model overestimates the Hindu population.

Section C.3: Logistic Model
In this logistic model, we try to fit a logistic curve to the data points, minimising the square error in the process.  We do not believe that this technique is a good fit for the region that is showing rapid changes in populations like Gurgaon or Santhal Parganas (See reasons given in [12]) .  However, for the sake of completeness, we have included this technique in our examination too.  The logistic model may be considered a lower bound on the changes possible.

In the logistic model, we can see that Purnea becomes Muslim majority in 2051, but other regions have a Hindu population ranging from 60.1% in Santhal Parganas to 70.7% in Gurgaon.  The population of Santhal Parganas shows a massive drop in this model too.  Gurgaon also shows a sharp drop, with the Muslim population expanding from 16% in 1951 to 29% in 2061 and Bahraich shows a Muslim population rise from 20% in 1951 to 35% in 2061.

Conclusions
We have shown the number of pockets in the Hindi heartland where the Hindus are falling sharply and may well become minorities either in entire districts like old Purnea and old Santhal Parganas or local minorities in Balrampur, Mewat, etc.  We have also shown the serious security implications and the possible formation of a Mughalistan corridor.  Finally, we have shown the possible isolation of parts of the country from others.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.

References

[1] Sankar Ghosh, “Jawaharlal Nehru: A Biography”,

[2] LSS O’Malley, “Purnea District Gazetteer”, 1908

[3] CZ Guilmoto and I. Rajan, “Fertility at District Levels in India: Lessons from the 2011 census”, http://www.ceped.org/IMG/pdf/ceped_wp30.pdf

[4] “Church Happy as Conversion Bill Threatens State Government”, http://www.ucanews.com/story-archive/?post_name=/2006/08/30/church-happy-as-conversion-bill-threatens-jharkhand-states-coalition-government&post_id=27867

[5] National Geographic Journal of India 16.112

[6]  K. K. Sinha, Excavation at sravasti, 1967

[7] Minhaj -US -Siraj, “Tabakat i nasiri, Trans. History of India as told by its own historians volume 2”)

[8] Shanmukh, Dikgaj and Saswati Sarkar, “Western Uttar Pradesh and Southern Uttarakhand: Muslim Majority by 2061?” http://www.dailyo.in/politics/population-muslims-muzaffarnagar-uttarakhand-shamli-western-uttar-pradesh-hindus-sikh-demography/story/1/10631.html

[9] Shanmukh, Dikgaj and Saswati Sarkar, “A Demographic Warning for West Bengal”, https://www.myind.net/demographic-warning-west-bengal

[10] Shanmukh, Saswati Sarkar, Dikgaj and Aparna, “Will Assam be Muslim Majority in the next 40 years?” http://indiafacts.org/will-assam-muslim-majority-next-40-years/

[11] Shanmukh, Saswati Sarkar, Dikgaj, and Aparna, “Kerala and South Tamil Nadu – A Case of Hindu Fade out” http://indiafacts.org/kerala-south-tamil-nadu-case-hindu-fade/

[12] Shanmukh, Vikram, Aparna, Saswati Sarkar, and Dikgaj, “The Demographic expansion of Kashmir and the shrinking of Jammu and Ladakh” https://www.myind.net/demographic-expansion-kashmir-and-shrinking-jammu-and-ladakh#.V3UOVSF0xwc.twitter

[13] LSL O’Malley, “District Gazetteer of Santal Parganas”, 1910

[14] Sean Winchell, “Pakistan’s ISI: The Invisible Government”, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, Vol. 16(3), http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/713830449

[15] HR Neville, “District Gazetteer of Gonda”, 1905

[16] HR Neville, “District Gazetteer of Bahraich”, 1903

[17] Shail Mayaram, “Perspectives on Violence and Othering in India”

[18] Gurgaon District Gazetteer, 1883.

[19] NB Khare, “My Autobiography, or my Political Memoirs”

[20] Gangs of Mewat http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/in-mewat-govt-s-indifference-and-neglect-a-bigger-reality-than-crime/story-FaXR9hW7KNlqvSRpn0iAUL.html

[21] Partha Ghosh, “Migrants, Refugees and the Stateless”

[22] Lord Rowlatt Committee, “Seditions Committee Report”

[23] Kazi Fahmida Farzana, “The Neglected Stateless Bihari community in Bangladesh : victims of political and diplomatic onslaught” Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, Vol 2,Issue 1, 2008

[24] Encyclopaedia Britannica “Nehru-Liaqat Pact or Delhi Pact”, 1950

[25] Joya Chatterjee, “The Spoils of Partition”

[26] Braja Bihari Kumara, “Illegal Migration from Bangladesh”