Some things never cease to amaze me… India is the fastest growing nation, with increasing exports and has a strong Damocles Index of 25 and yet it is depreciating against the Dollar. Half-baked financial experts aver that this is a global phenomenon and go back to hide beneath the rock. Nothing can be further from the truth. The current run on the Rupee is created by a cabal which I had warned several months ago and the brazenness with which this group is operating (with help from inside this Government and some in the Finance Ministry) reinforces my stand that while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may be in power, it is still the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) that is ruling India.
What is the Damocles Index?
Started by Lehman Brothers as a measure of a proprietary early warning system that helps identify the risk of a financial crisis in emerging countries, it is a number that starts from 0 and can go over 100. For instance, its March 2004 report on 17 countries gave Thailand, Mexico and Poland an index rating of 0 (meaning the most stable) to three-digits[1]. A score of 100 or above indicates that the country’s economy is in crisis. If it exceeds 150, then things are critical.
What is the current rating of India?
The latest ratings issued by Nomura lists 7 countries with scores of over 100 – Sri Lanka, South Africa, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Ukraine. See the interactive graphic below for the details. Compared to these economies, India comes in at a rock solid 25.
From the above chart, it is clear that India will not have to officially devalue its currency. The perturbations that are being seen now do not cut ice (foreign outflows leaving for safer destinations – India is the safest). So what is one to conclude? As Sherlock Holmes said that “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”, there is a deliberate rigging of the foreign currency to make it appear as if India is in a precarious financial position. The investigating agencies know who the culprits are[2]. They are getting help from inside the government from individuals who might want to weaken the Prime Minister (PM). The sooner, the PM acts and nips this in the bud, the better it is for him and the country.
References:
[1] Lehman Brothers latest ‘Damocles’ Index – Apr 29, 2004, RYT9.com
[2] Whistleblower Ken Fong claims rigging of Currency Markets in NSE by a few – Aug 14, 2018, PGurus.com
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[…] Damocles index shows Rupee as being strong and yet… – Sep 12, 2018, […]
Jhootley Shaab! the chaddi buddy of Chaddidambaram. The one who seems to have met Vijay mallya too is the one main branch out of which several branches are stemming out. Becoming FM without winning an election, having UPA bureaucrats under him. Helping his cronies from industrial lobbies and what not. PM can not cat alone in purifying this curse. He should have supporting ARMs at high level. Bring Subramanya Swamy as FM and Sree Iyer as one of the advisors.
Isn’t this the usual pre election dive in rupee? As the retrospectively amended law on foreign funding suggests, every party uses foreign money. The drop in rupee helps the money go a little further because they get more rupee
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An ineresting analysis.
Gatbandhan of jiahdis- Congis- marxists- yadavs- Bannerjis have stolen enough money over the last 70 years, to pull off a stnt like this,
Falling ruppee makes no sense
India is lucky that bottom has not dropped out from rupee yet, if it continues such high monthly trade deficit it eould create balance of payment crisis in short time. Take avg $15 Billion monthly trade deficit 12 X 15 = $180 Billion trade deficit yearly. Who will fund it?? How india will finance it??
This article is complete nonsense , Indian trade deficit worse after the US in the world, How India is going to make balance of payment ??? May trade deficit > $14 Billion, June >$17 Billion, July>18 Billion, August > $18 Billion and so on ,,,,
Perhaps you can explain how much of the rising deficits are due to “hot money” leaving the country. P-Notes have been wreaking havoc and should have been banned a long time ago. The culprits are daring the Government in plain sight. Provide facts as to why this article is wrong, not empty rhetoric.
Isn’t this the usual pre election dive in rupee? As the retrospectively amended law on foreign funding suggests, every party uses foreign money. The drop in rupee helps the money go a little further because they get more rupee …
Also, I would have liked to see a plot of Damocles index over a few years’ period, going back to 1990 or earlier, if available. That would tell us a little more about how it moves.
….
Damocles Index by Nomura,
As for India, its Damocles score has fallen to 25 in the third quarter of 2018, from 56 during 2012 to 2013.
India’s most recent currency crisis occurred in 2013 and was due to weak domestic macro fundamentals and worsening external funding conditions. Since then, consumer price index (CPI) inflation has moderated to about 4.5% in 2018 from 9.7% in 2012, as has the current account deficit at an estimated -2.5% of GDP, compared to minus 5% in 2012. Furthermore, India’s central bank has a sufficient forex reserve buffer of 9.3 months of import cover versus 6.4 in 2012.
“However, given India runs a current account deficit, it remains vulnerable to bouts of global risk aversion. Higher oil prices and portfolio outflows are its key external vulnerabilities.
“Aside from these, the key risks stem from the government turning more populist ahead of the 2019 general elections (worsening domestic fundamentals) and a sharper-than-expected domestic growth slowdown (triggering equity outflows),” said Nomura.
Interesting..!!!
Dear Modi Hon ble P.M
Please remember that self uprightness is the need of the hour.TOUGNESS of hte mind is the need of the hour. You work for 18 hours day.please work 2 hours of the day withn smart ideation practice,will power decisions what may.believe in alimighty for cosmos welfare x3 times sign the critical/crisis document and release.Now domains like eonomics,political,social,engineering,medical,moeny,legal,situation effort….a reserve enrgy is needed that is good governance,ethics,you have both in you.speak the truth in amatured way that people pick up, and ask their cooperation they will give,Declare 1o point plan before election.a) good nutritious food canteen for 5000 per month people b) laptop for all boys/girls who pass preliminary CELTA exam/12 Years+c) cycle for girls student+maintennce free.govt.authorised cycle shop do free repair near the petrol station provide c) pysically challenged local tranport free/pedal mechanised cyle subidised rate d)sewing,needle work,house wiring beauty poarlour,para medical courses,women related 90 days courses free and 25,0000 rs start business in the house and earn e)youth boys sat+sunday 10 hours job near army camp related to garden,road laying,welding,cycle/moto cycle repair,motor/pump set wiring,laptaop ,mobile repair,phto copy repair,plasting painting atuomobile/house spraying/vido..photographt/event managment etcetc..30 days
coursesinduction with min 3 vocational learn,earn courses(e) 24×7 open mechanical/civil/electrical workshops industrial skill workers can come and work for export oriented 25items identified by commerce ministry,railway-air-sea..es defence EME resettlement skilled persons civil export territories man.machine-material,money suppport wings(defence corridor extension) business model..export items.labour no service tax on earnings war footing break all domains..create a new ministry export and grow india slogan and create (f) daily save money counter in post office/ATM money deposit/no with drawal for 6 months saved money+add 15% extra and motivate saving in masses/this fund reroute it for export (g) oil lubricants domestic use formual simple Indian oil/bharath oiletc run anicillary+qaulity lab and reduced the lub oilm cost and recycle..reduce the over heads.lub.oil with ISI mark sealed quality by third party cost will be 50% of branded cost..brand names indian context do not support/quality person quality india practice in consumer/durable/industrial products..cost will come down(g) take 1000 families competition who live with discipline of life,health exercises,good house keeping,good education children,good ehtics.family governance,above average achievement in life 200%+ award the nationalm ideal Indian family as role model award 25000/Rs as bonus role model family (h) Profession enginners,dcotors,lawyers,NGO call for workshop how they can contribute to society welfare.health wellness.per capita earning through services90%+10% money funding/explore-exploit population two hands,two legs,social service attitude inall community jobs/police work reduction in police station/sex /divorace counselling/matured wisdom indian thinking as human race evolution etc..India self pride to Ashoka/gupta golden periods etc history repeat itself if we follow good deeds of rules /manu nidhi chola who gave chariot for flower branch tree as support /sibi king sacrfice flesh for dow etc
Youhave capacity,competency,and carry this as strenghts,inspire,motivate,change Indian average person attitude/reduce novote philosophy/pull out the professionals for the common stream.10% pull indians in the thought process/inertia of mind break in them of british slavery yes,yes,sir,sir sir sttitude/ignore slave mentality,I can,I will,I am let us work for developed nation ,visionb,mission,goal min 15000 Rsper month earning per family we are two,we have two ,sustain and grow principles will make India to make you as second terms P.M
Bring two or three IMF/MacKenzie UK english men high caliber to audit your govt operation audit why your schemes failed to reach the common man..a introspection needed .review this without bias and appoint supreme authority from BJP and take remedial/recovery.time bound action.
If you need help in judgment i can advice you raman..I.R.M U.K risk advisor Indian risk maenpterprises expert.for people engagment/enduser grief redressal..Iso 9001 If possible appoint a DY PM above all governors fo southern state..take top 25 grievances(10 should inter border related).the appointed DyPM south will solve..retired ICS with fiance background with smart decisionmaker will help to get more votes and your public iimage will shoot up as brand leader ..a good listner..action leader image will come…Dy PM for south is key medical tratment as antidote treatment/serve as shock treatement to south..a dypm is there who is eated with us unlike you are seated from remote Dalehi..e,g primary health centre versus all India medical hospital Indelhi/nearer to public near er to the temple of voter heart is secret of success.
with best of luck/we support you totally provided you bend and listen/change yourself fully to knwo people heart and not mind of spineless pliticians corruption driven/goodas wo use democracy and steal neational wealth and create a maya nofm well wishers/can you change this appraoch and expose the mentality of al well wishers.hypocrites around nook and corner of India?????change and kill that mentality people.
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Fantastic suggestions.