EP-134 FMs of India, France, Oz to meet on Apr 13, Russia FM, John Kerry coming to India same day

Sree Iyer: Welcome to Daily Global Insights by Sri and Sree. Today is Apr 4, 2021, and this is episode number 134. Today is a holiday for many but, we at PGurus are hard at work. A lot of things happening around the world. Before I turn it over to SridharJi, here are the main points:

Chris Christie: “Biden is a liar and hypocrite” for Election Law Rhetoric

Biden calls Ukraine as Russia builds up massive troops

Foreign Ministers of India, France and Australia to meet on April 13^th

Malaysia Airforce team likely to visit India soon to assess the suitability of LCA Tejas fighter Jets

Sridhar Chityala: Good morning to everybody.

Sree Iyer: Sir, India, Australia and Japan are going to be meeting the Foreign Ministers of the three countries are going to be meeting on April 13. Now it is believed that John Kerry and Russia’s foreign minister, are going to be in India on the same day. So how do you read this? This is important because I don’t want to go through further than the three foreign ministers are meeting. We are also doing quad exercises together and now I’m hearing that John Kerry and the Russian foreign minister are going to be there the same day.

Sridhar Chityala: I think it puts to test the diplomats see and the Diplomatic skills of India. It also emphasizes the strategic importance of the geopolitical anchoring that is kind of going on. Kerry is in India to discuss the climate and the Paris Accord and support from India. The Russian foreign minister is there I don’t know to stir the pot because of the S400 and the AK-47 rifles deal that he wants to do. Or whether he has got interested in delivering some message from the Chinese, we don’t know so that you got that. As far as the Strategic agenda is concerned, it’s very clear India, France and Australia is concerned with Japan kind of tagging behind. This is a very specific Indo-pacific effort where both India and Australia have a strategic interest in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. So, therefore that agenda is very clear. So the La Perouse, which is the French named exercise that is currently underway in the Bay of Bengal and that will then extend into foreign ministers meet in terms of broadly determining the Strategic Arrangements in the region. India has logistical arrangements with France and India has logistical arrangements with Australia. So, that’s how I kind of read the situation, sir.

Sree Iyer: In United States news, Chris Christie says Biden is a liar and a hypocrite for the election law Retreat. Now, this election law is now being debated. It’s one of the hottest debated topics in the United States. Sir, now people are taking sides and mostly they are taking along partisan except that there seems to be some disagreement within the Democratic party itself Ilhan Omar says one thing and Stacy Adams is saying something, sir, what do you make of this whole process? We had a detailed hangout, yesterday viewers. You can see that too for more details. What do you make of the new development sir?

Sridhar Chityala:  I think the developments is basically what is going on here is around votes. This is very much like Indian politics. It is vote Bank politics. That’s all it is. There is nothing to do with discrimination and this that, of course, people will rationalize and argue specific communities were targeted and were deprived or were denied the opportunity to vote by virtue of practices that prevail but when you actually see that the present rule of law is very clearly laid out that everybody has an opportunity to kind of vote. So what’s going on here is around the posturing that is going on amongst the various people.

Democrats is there is an internal war going on between the progressive and non-progressive. So, this Progressive seems to be led by an AOC, Ilhan and so on. Whereas the non-Progressive who are genuinely fighting. I mean if people like Stacey Adams and so on they’re genuinely fighting for the cause of the African-American kind of community. We have neglected, we have been choosing, you know, we should be given Kind of the exercise so you’ve got this issue going on.

With regard to the specific point that you made which is namely partisan, repeatedly polls have been conducted and they say and you can kind of validate close to  75% of the Americans believe that there has to be a fair, just and consistent process. Okay, if you need to expand something but there has to be a fair, just and inconsistent process that is applied so that the elections can be conducted fairly and rationally and an outcome can be obtained.

Sree Iyer: And on this immigration news a lot of people now weighing in with their comments chat wolf says lack of enforcement accountability and willful intent behind the migrant search. I’m just going to add one more thing, sir, from AG Paxton open borders has cost taxpayers billions of dollars and Barrasso says the easiest way to get into the US Is an illegally fully funded package. So these three together looks like now I hope that these people will apply the brakes. What is going on sir?

Sridhar Chityala: I  don’t know, how are they going to apply brakes?

I think over the weekend Biden announced that he’s going to pay some $800,000 in this you know four-five families are going to be put together in hotels; they are to be located in hotels. These illegal fellows coming in and now also they have Army or me to open the third Center to put these kids, so, that’s why I use the word it’s coming with a package. So, in other words, your coming, get into the bus bring you onboard then if you don’t have accommodation, we will give you the accommodation and then we will integrate you into the communities. So it’s a full-on sweet package. This is a message to the Indians because he all this, you know, H-1B and green card and waiting and so on. All they have to do is get on to the other side of the border and then, you know say, Hey, make a case. Look, I’m at the guy, I am you know, I’m looking for a job, you know, allow me in everybody else is coming in. It seems to be the way we are going.

Sree Iyer: And again, this is just a comment don’t take our word for it and we don’t know what will get out there consequences, but, we just seeing the ludicrousness of the situation the X New York Police Department Commissioner Ray Kelly says that Mayor de Blasio has destroyed New York City. Sir, this is something that we need to do a special episode on, how New York is becoming, you know a mess from what I’m hearing and seeing and you live right there in the middle of all this stuff. You must be facing, you know, I don’t know what to describe but we should probably do a separate segment on this sir.

Sridhar Chityala: Separate o the segment is only one means that the crime rate has increased quite dramatically crime rate has increased dramatically across the country. Is extraordinarily High especially after the defunct defund police activities quite the Law and Order has gone berserk. We have one more challenge, which we were discussing, you know within the in the family now, we can smoke marijuana in the streets, it is allowed in Manhattan is allowed in New York so you can kind of stop them so it’s now legal.

Sree Iyer: Kansas GOP and state must Point mandate after the Democratic governor has extended it. So now you have these battles between the state congress and the state Governor, especially if they are on the opposite sides.

Sridhar Chityala: I think that’s what is happening is gun laws, the tax laws. Then this issue around the immigration, the issue around the funding, you are now beginning to see you know, a classic cluster of bits and pieces of disintegration that’s happening. So the states are enacting so they may not implement especially at least in the red States. So we are beginning to see the law assert kind of itself. And eventually, I think that the United States is a country that compromises, eventually, you know, there will be some sanity that kind of way coming. After this insanity may last for a month or two months or so, then you maybe me begin to see some kind of normalcy slowly coming back.

Sree Iyer: And the GOP lawmakers call for an end to Major League Baseball antitrust laws. What are these antitrust laws are and how does the situation change?

Sridhar Chityala:  I think that antitrust laws effectively basically give them a kind of differential, it gives them the rights to do what they have done as you can see. They unilaterally made the cancellation. So, if you remove some of these Provisions, then you have to go through a due process. You can’t kind of arbitrarily remove which has cost close to a hundred million dollars according to the state of Georgia as a result of the games. So they all take shelter under these antitrust laws, which is namely you can’t enforce something and you have the freedom to apply the rules as you see appropriate. So I think you will begin to see that they’re going to review some of these laws and conditions and the way you can apply this indiscriminating.

Sree Iyer: I’m just thinking out loud here sir. The state of Georgia has within its purview to sue Major League Baseball for loss of Revenue or breach of contract if in case there is a specific wording that says that you know, if there is a voting law change, then we can pull it out if there is no such thing that they may be on strong wrong here.

Sridhar Chityala: I think the lawyers in the United States are remarkable, so, they will use nuts and bolts within the antitrust laws to kind of preserve the status quo in independence and integrity. They may even come up with a clause to say MLB is incorporated in New York. So, therefore, you know, it applies the New York law. So therefore you can use those kinds of laws to make its own judicial judgment in you know, and that kind of stuff. So therefore I think these are the loopholes that are trying to kind of get rid of

Sree Iyer: And Curt Schilling says that the MLD decision to pull out the All-Star game will backfire. I think there is some backfiring already happening backlash happening. Just yesterday, I saw that Ilhan Omar was saying one thing and you be you touched upon it. So there are some disagreement grumblings going on already, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: Well, I think to look at the end of the day it is an agenda between a small minority within the Democratic party. We have not seen the centre voice from the Democratic Party rise. Historically, in the United States, Democrats have taken a central position that is why it has a vast following. We have not seen the emergence of this, right now, you are seeing the left rhetoric voice as well as the latter liberals which is medium a combination of media bunch of vested groups, as well as this Progressive, is kind of leading the agenda. Sooner or later,  we’re going to see the voice of reason from the Democratic party emerge, right because they have been you know, and then that we have not seen as yet we have not seen.

Sree Iyer: And looks like the Iron Lady is not speaking anymore. I’m talking about Nancy Pelosi.

Sridhar Chityala: Iron lady is not because she’s got all the agenda that she’s got an election and she is got the stimulus bill when she’s got you know, unfretting excess of people coming through the borders and then all the kind of stuff. So she’s kind of smiling on our way. She is also got her Silicon Valley subway near her home. So, therefore, you know, we can’t complain.

Sree Iyer: Biden calls Ukraine President as Russia begins massive troops along the border of Ukraine. This is a new development. So what do you make of it sir?

Sridhar Chityala: What is going on here is that everybody knows that, you know a Hunter Biden and Trump-Biden and Burisma and their proximity to Ukraine, you know, it’s like a pet peeve project. So the story is that you know, you just stirred the Hornet’s Nest. So what has happened and you want to talk to Ukraine and without me who the hell you think you are so you know, so they have outside Ukraine is there was no build-up outside Ukraine for the last four years and everything was kind of going on. Russians were doing their own kind of stuff and now no more Navalny. Now all of a sudden you have Russia-Ukraine, Russia-Turkey, Russia-China these kinds of issues. So there’s a buildup unwarranted build up and I think we covered this last week, you know, there was this, you know unwarranted the US You know, Sea Shield you know to pass through the Black Sea and Phosphorus Sea and you know, people are telling Russians, this is not your link and so, Russia says you’re coming to my territory and going to tell me what who I am. Okay, so they’re saying will show you action.

Sree Iyer: And in world news, Japan’s prime minister aims to calm China-Taiwan tensions on his first US Visit. So Suga is coming to the United States. And what kind of message is he bringing you to think, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: I think that he is trying to bring a message which is to say he can handle China. I think that’s the message that he’s trying to because if there is a confront we will touch on the next topic, which is so he said if there’s a confrontation, he is trying to give some kind of an assurance notwithstanding the fact that there are a lot of feathers ruffled around the thing but Suga it depends on today you get one statement yesterday. You got another statement tomorrow. Maybe we’ll give another statement. So he’s a little bit kind of rattle as to what exactly is going on, you know around especially around South China and Chinese incursions. He believes he can tackle two things one he believes he can tackle China. He also believes he can work with the Americans and the South Koreans which you know, South Koreans and Japanese working with the Americans to underneath your eyes. The Korean is not a very trivial matter, so he has a challenge on his hand. In my view, he will discuss two things strategic partnership around this chip and rare metals and in my investments and so on. I think the second is going to what is going to be the defence strategy between us and Japan in terms of Defending Taiwan and in ten tons of defending the South China Sea.

Sree Iyer: And Chinese aircraft carrier and five ships pass Okinawa on their way to the Pacific. So China also beginning to Rattle its sabre.

Sridhar Chityala: Indeed. I want to read this because I can’t kind of remember every piece of this one. So this it is Chinese aircraft carrier on Saturday Leone and five escort vessels have passed through the key waterway of Japan, on the way to the Pacific Ocean. This is the joint staff of the Japanese Defence Ministry. Look at the Armageddon. The carrier group was spotted around 8 a.m. Saturday 470 kilometres from Nagasaki Prefecture not too far from Dangelo Islands. This is the first since April 2020 that Liaoning has been known to use and pass through this waterway. Accompanying this Liaoning were Renhai Class Stealth guided-missile destroyer, two Luyang III class guided-missile destroyers, one Jiangkai II multi-role frigate and one Fuyu class fast combat support ship. It’s an Armageddon. We can put this link and these photographs of this Armageddon passing through. So what did the Japanese side do? They deployed a destroyer called JS Suzutsuki, a P-1 maritime patrol aircraft and a P-3C anti-submarine warfare patrol aircraft to gather information and monitor what exactly these Chinese vessels are doing. This is one of the most provocative moves around this region. So we should share these links and the photographs so people can get a view as to what exactly is the issue.

Sree Iyer: We will do that sir. And in other news, the Philippines defence Chief says China looks to occupy more of the South China Sea as confrontation looms. So the Philippines also is now expressing some concern, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: I think we discussed it quite a few times throughout the DGI for the last few days, which is they have their eyes set on Scarborough Shoals plus that 9 point line and I think somehow they want to get closer and closer because the reason is very sensitive to them. The Spratly Islands that they occupy is very Proximus to the Philippines, which has been contested very heavily by the Philippines and the ICJ gave a ruling which has not been followed.

Sree Iyer: The US-Iran discussions to commence in the Middle East. So this is what we talked about in the last few episodes. What do you expect especially given that rockets on midday launch land just outside the US contracts housing near Iraqi military base? So Iran is also doing this and they also want to sit down and talk peace with the US.

Sridhar Chityala: I think that what is going to happen is they’re going to sit down and basically say look we have a deal with China. We have a deal with Russia. We will do a deal with Turkey. What the hell are you going to do? Are you going to go to the United Nations? I have got people in the United Nations. I’m covered. So therefore I’m done. I’m going to go. What do you want to do now? So you’re not going to allow me to control. So then what are little puppets in Washington DC will say? Oh, Israel will now be sympathetic to Palestinians. So that’s the kind of the soft pedal compromised. The next compromise will be that leave every place, leave Iraq, leave this, leave that, leave it to us because that is the broad Shia territory. So we’re not going to see much come out. This is a very weak position. The only nation which has something on this is France. France has told Iran, do not to be belligerent and do not be misguided. Be careful. You want to come mainstream you want to do things, make sure that you are compliant. I think Iran is a trading Nation so they could be some hope for some kind of normalcy to be restored. but you know that that is not the case because there are a lot of zealots in Iran.

Sree Iyer: With so many moving parts it is difficult to say who’s orchestrating all these things like what Iran is saying, what China is doing, what turkey is doing, and what Russia is doing? So, one shudders to you know think that all these are nuclear Nations, what exactly are they thinking? Sir, this next item is going to probably get your shackles up again. The US shuts one secret Guantanamo Bay prison unit and moves the prisoners. Is the next Arab Spring and Mayhem in the offing like the great Obama did? And what about the Yezdis? Do Yezdis not fit as refugees under the American Refugee calendar?

Sridhar Chityala: No, I think I use the word very subtly here, which is to say when he came to power all the things that were going on in Guantanamo Bay were illegal and it’s not human rights compliant etc the world recognized him rewarded him etc. But what followed was a monumental catastrophic human disaster the world has witnessed and the world has seen. You saw all these fellows go back and occupied territories right from Iraq and they conducted their own dream. Right from Mosul, Mosul was completely unreachable, between Mosul to Kirkuk it became a territory going into the Northern Syrian region, and Peshmergas had to fight them. But when they overran, the world has forgotten there is a community called Yezdis, the amount of suffering that the Yezdis went through, their communities shattered, they all became slaves and so on. Not anyone in the world talks about the plight of the community and support either for the Peshmergas or for the Yezdis most notably Yezdis. They made a few cases it seems and brought them and showed them but the fact is that they remain completely neglected. I call them the dispensable community in global politics. We are willing to put up with it because we want to please either one side of this or one side of this in the process. So it’s very worrying that what’s going to happen when this jail is shut down. What are these guys doing? They are going to Cuba or somewhere else?

Sree Iyer: I’m going to take things a little faster, sir, we have a lot to cover. Blinken seeks equal treatment of Palestinians from Israel and trouble in Jordan, Jordan half prince says he is confined and lashes out at authorities. This is Prince Hamza we’re talking about. What is going on in Jordan now?

Sridhar Chityala: I think the ships to be some political battle between the half-brother and the crown prince. Usually, these kinds of things surface in that part of the world and I am sure that they will, I am not sure but more truth will come to be known but it is also worrying because it is also closer to Jordan-Palestine territory.

Sree Iyer: And in India news, Chinese Telecom gear maker Huawei will not be in any of the government 4G or 5G tenders. India’s foreign exchange reserves cross 101 billion in the fiscal year 2021 and it is likely to cross 640 billion in the fiscal year 2022. So this is your projections and looks like that’s coming right along.

Sridhar Chityala: It is, it is, I think that 750 billion is the target. I think that the way India is building up its reserves as is required, especially reducing the net difference between the imports and exports they are really building a very good set of reserves. I think we have discussed what the reserves are. This augurs well for India as a nation.

Sree Iyer: In Naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal, India has commenced doing this Indo-Pacific strategic interest and looks like now it’s in the second day today, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: It is the 3rd day. They started on 3rd April.

Sree Iyer: Malaysia Air Force team is likely to visit India soon to assess the suitability of the LCA Tejas fighter jets. So now Indian fighter jets are finding a market globally.

Sridhar Chityala: Globally and I think we have covered this extensively with so many people on India’s Defense capabilities, defence production capabilities, all these augurs well. With the Malaysia-India relationship, they must reset the course because there’s a lot of commonality between Singapore, Malaysia, and India historically. So I am glad that they are moving in the right direction and hopefully they’ll be a much wider strategic partnership than what we have seen with Mahathir Mohamad.

Sree Iyer:  Viewers, I’m going to give you a quick Global covid update as cases keep rising. I have put up the graphic. You can see that this is the situation today and we have a total of 131 million cases and 2.85 million deaths and in the reported cases and deaths you can see that the US leads the way followed by Brazil and India. These are some of the highest in terms of numbers. However, there is an interesting statistic that will blow your mind away. Look at the cases per hundred thousand for India. It is 921 and looks at the deaths per 100,000 for India – 12. Well, so clearly India is doing something right because that is how you have to do it rather than saying the numbers are big. The numbers are big, but what you have to see is how many has it affected and how effectively has the country dealt with it. So are you able to read the numbers, sir? And here this is sort of like how are things spread? You can take a quick look at it as the number start scrolling on your screen and you can see the world getting populated how this covid spread and how it has wreaked havoc and as you can see clearly the bubble size is bigger in the United States. Perhaps it was aimed at the United States. I don’t know because we still don’t know how this virus started. Although people keep saying that it is most likely this, most likely that, there is no most definitely this. So that’s where things are started and we have as you can see that the number is inching up very very fast here. But you get the idea of how the covid spread and it’s interesting to see that if you look at the equatorial band meaning all the countries in and around the Equator. The impact has not been that much. What do you think, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: Well, I think that they’re two or three reasons for this. They say that there is a natural immunity that is built into some of the communities especially with warm and hot and humid kind of climates. This virus seems to be not very susceptible to heat. So that’s one part of it. The second part of it is the food habits. Food habits also act as a natural defensive mechanism because one of the treatments that people give for viruses are the Immuno boosters because your immunity levels are very low. So maybe they getting that from the food as well and I think the third I would say, yes. Is that they probably have followed the habits for more stringently relating to many of the other people. Most of these things are because people have not followed discipline and people have been indisciplined. That is why you have seen the rise in cases

Sree Iyer: You can see the heat map on who is suffering the most in continents; Asia, Europe, North America, and so on and then you have the daily reported deaths by the country. Recently, India has had a spurt that’s why you see India has a higher number 465 and also Italy is again continuing to be very high and the United States is another one and of course, Brazil. Brazil is the most in terms of the number of deaths 2747. So now if you looked at the case growth rates you have a country-by-country split here, but overall you see that the growth of cases is the fastest in the United States and we are going to give you a link to this interactive chart and you can take a look at it yourself there. With that, I bring this to end. we can continue back to our normal course of news and the next topic that I want to talk about is Market, sir.

The US Market futures point to higher open with the SOW up 237 points, S&P up 22 points. So what is the market looking at as positive business news, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: The market is looking very positive on three fronts. One, I think that the job numbers that came in at 917,000 gave positive hope in terms of that the regeneration has started the post-impact post-covid. Many of the Republican states have started to lift the restrictions so there’s a volume of activity that is beginning to trigger. Number two. Number three. I think that we have crossed a hundred million, people are slowly beginning to get confident that the recovery will happen and it’s only a matter of time before this vaccination issue is resolved as we ramp up. So there is a general positive momentum besides the stimulus checks.

Sree Iyer: Crude now is down to 60 dollars and forty cents and there is a downward trend there. That’s a good sign and the 10-year treasury is now trading at 1.679% well below 1.7%. The 10-year treasury rate, what is the importance of that, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: The importance of that is inflation. So when the rates go up that means that there is an inflationary cycle and inflationary tendency. When you have inflation, then the rates go up, right? So that is what it is. You can’t have a 0% rate and a 10-year treasury at 1.7% or 2%. We predicted that by end of the year we expected it to be 2%. But they are kind of working together, they sent the treasurer as well as the FED Governor, they are saying that the recovery has to be deep-rooted amongst the communities. So they’re going to hold the rates while they continue to make sure that the recovery is full steam rather than half steam.

Sree Iyer: With that, we bring to close our today’s episode. We’ll be back again tomorrow bright and early. Do subscribe to this alternate YouTube channel of PGurus and we’ll be back on the main channel from next week. But this week you will be getting this, only on this channel and we will be publishing the links in our social media pages. So please do visit us and those of you who have friends and family who follow this news, please spread the word. Thank you very much and namaskar.

Sridhar Chitlaya: Thank you. Have a wonderful day.

Reference – Chinese aircraft carrier and 5 ships pass Okinawa on way to Pacific