It’s the crucial total of 48 LS seats from Maharashtra, the same MAGIC has to be repeated to maintain BJP’s National tally above majority mark.
The interesting aspect to Lok Sabha 2019 election will be the ability of BJP to keep its allies in NDA intact nationally and take them along through election.
At the moment Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis is keeping a moderate profile, doing well to keep his alliance Govt stable. But there seems to be a deep-rooted conspiracy planned to shake the foundation of BJP Shiv Sena alliance in State.
The Farmers’ Protest March towards Mumbai which generated National attention and the entry of Narayan Rane into BJP has annoyed many within the Party. The constant friction in BJP-Shiv Sena relationship is out in open. The cosiness between MNS (Maharastra Navnirman Sena), NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) and Congress planning a grand alliance to uproot BJP Govt in the State, are all alarming signals for BJP to seriously brainstorm and work out an amicable settlement with its alliance partner or it will turn out to be disastrous.
As long-term natural allies, BJP should reciprocate and accommodate Shiv Sena and clear the misunderstanding among them.
One crucial factor determining the outcome of the results in Maharashtra will be the BJP Shiv Sena alliance. In the mid 90’ Shiv Sena and BJP romped to power in State with a strong alliance and it was the Hindutva agenda which bonded them together. Shiv Sena was the big brother in the state then, with its CM nominee and BJP had Deputy CM post. Late Shri Balasaheb Thackeray, a towering personality rallied both the parties under the Hindutva umbrella. Even when they lost power in the state the alliance was intact.
Only after 2014 LS election, the bitterness exploded and they parted for Assembly election of Oct 2014. The break-up was just for few MLA Assembly seats and both could have found a solution. But they chose to fight separately. BJP piggybacking on Modi Wave in the country fared better in the election and gained more seats. In this bargain, Shiv Sena which rightfully could have given CM candidate lost out and was forced to play second fiddle when State Govt formed.
As long-term natural allies, BJP should reciprocate and accommodate Shiv Sena and clear the misunderstanding among them. Shiv Sena also should move forward and bury its hatchet once for all in National Interest.
The possible schedule for the election will be simultaneous polling for both Lok Sabha and Maharashtra State Assembly.
The MNS electorally irrelevant is now in proximity to NCP and Congress. Provoking the local issues once again, its top leader has announced ‘MODI MUKT BHARAT‘ which will help them get their core support back and a large chunk of deluded voters will also flock towards them. They have good voter base in 15-18 Lok Sabha seats around Mumbai and Western / Northern Maharashtra in 15-18 LS seats. They did play spoilt sport in 2009 LS election with about 10-12 LS seats and in the bargain, BJP Shiv Sena lost a seat with a narrow margin.
It’s the crucial total of 48 LS seats from Maharashtra , out of which NDA got 42 seats – ( BJP = 23 + SS = 18 + Independent = 1) in 2014 election . The same MAGIC has to be repeated to maintain BJP’s National tally above majority mark.
The possible schedule for the election will be simultaneous polling for both Lok Sabha and Maharashtra State Assembly.
Maharashtra LS Election 2019 can throw up interesting possibilities – equations, challenges, alliances and tie-ups. The final outcome will depend on many factors and will significantly decide the future of the Nation.
For BJP NDA Govt at centre after 2019 election it’s important the alliance stay together!!!
Note:
1. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
3 decade of work experience in International MNC.
Social Media & Political Analyst
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I have a feeling BJP will lose Maharashtra in 2019. It’s choice of CM, the autocratic nature of current BJP leadership, and the history of the Maharashtra state are three factors that will go against BJP. Perhaps, if BJP changes the CM, they might have better hopes.
There was a clear understanding between BJP and Shivasena (read Pramod mahajan and Balthakrey) that BJP will rule at the centre with SS support and SS will rule in Maharastra with BJP support. With the death of both the negotiators the BJP is playing big brotherly and SS is being mischievous. We the voters Sincerely hope that good sense prevail in them to keep the alliance intact failing which the result will be disastrous and doom for India and specifically the Hindus.
It is the duty of SHIVASENA to honor the mandate of the people.they should be honest n sincere in alliance dharm n shouldn’t try to blackmail.Sena shouldn’t forget that it’s 18 LS seats are mainly due to Modi factor,in assembly elections also even though BJP was contesting for the first time independently,it got almost double seats than sena.Allince dharma is not one way traffic.