The 2019 Indian general election and possible outcome

Several opinion polls published in the days before voting started all predict that the BJP along with its allies will be comfortably ahead of the Congress coalition

The 2019 Indian general election is being held in seven phases from 11 April to 19 May 2019 to constitute the 17th Lok Sabha. The counting of votes will be conducted on 23 May, and on the same day, the results will be declared. About 900 million people are expected to vote.

In this election, the opposition tried to put up a united front against BJP, but, failed. They even could not agree on a common prime ministerial candidate for the opposition. This has brought more focus on Modi as the undisputed leader of BJP, more so because the opposition has openly declared that their main aim is to remove Modi. In 2014, Modi became a leader by charisma and there was a Modi-wave. But in 2019, he has been hoisted by the opposition and by NOTA factor and the charisma continues.

India is currently the fastest growing economy in the world and aspires to be the 3rd largest by 2030

There are Four principal arguments against Modi:

1) People and the economy suffered immensely due to demonetization: alleged suffering due to demonetization, voters’ discontent was not perceptible at all during the UP election and it is unlikely to be so in the coming election. Economic decline is debatable as the revised data on growth rate indicate.
2) Agrarian distress: The prevailing distress situation cannot be disputed and BJP’s loss in 3 state assembly elections point to it. But, this issue may not assume much importance in the general election. Moreover, various social benefit schemes in this sector have been undertaken to ameliorate sufferings
3) Increasing unemployment: Here also there is much difference of opinion among economists. However, more significantly, job creation has been more in the service sector-self-employed and the quality of the job there is very poor. In any case, it remains the principal issue to be tackled by the government.
4) Tardy implementation of GST: There were initial hiccups indeed. But, most of these have been sorted out and there is now the maximum realisation of GST

All said and done, India is currently the fastest growing economy in the world and aspires to be the 3rd largest by 2030. This coupled with zero tolerance policy against terrorists, the chowkidar campaign, the citizenship bill and the various welfare measures taken would have turned much the voters’ support towards Modi. They feel that in the last 5 years India has had a good government with corruption free governance and development-oriented administration. They also think that at the same time, India has acquired much greater respect in the global arena.

The story of the corruption of Congress leaders is unfolding every day. Moreover, people are sick of the lies and shenanigans of Rahul Gandhi.

Several opinion polls published in the days before voting started all predict that the BJP along with its allies will be comfortably ahead of the Congress coalition, even if some of them did not give the National Democratic Alliance an outright victory. India’s lower house of Parliament has 545 seats, with a halfway mark of 272.

In 2014 election, BJP had won 282 seats. In 2019 election it is expected to lose quite a few seats in UP to SP-BSP combine and a few seats all over rest of India. However, these losses will be regained from West Bengal, Odisha, Assam, NE. and maybe Kerala. In most other states it will maintain its winnings. Thus, BJP’s 282 and its allies including AIADMK adding about 48, it together gives NDA about 330 seats

The story of the corruption of Congress leaders is unfolding every day. Moreover, people are sick of the lies and shenanigans of Rahul Gandhi. So Congress’ seats are likely to come down quite a bit. However, UPA altogether will get about 145 seats

The remaining non-aligned parties like TRS, YSRCP, BJD etc. together will get about 68 seats.

Note:
1. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

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Sudip Bhattacharyya

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