India Today’s C-Voter survey shows 2029 hinges on swing voters, not loyalists
Introduction
The latest Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey published by India Today – CVoter in August 2025 reveals something interesting, though it doesn’t say it.
On the surface, the headlines were unambiguous: if elections were held today, the NDA would win 324 Lok Sabha seats, while the I.N.D.I.Alliance would secure 208. That is a commanding lead.
But these numbers have layers.
When one moves past the topline seat count and drills into voter responses on the economy, democracy, foreign affairs, and leadership, another reality emerges.
The Indian electorate is not merely divided between two blocs; it is split into die-hard loyalists and a large issue-based assortment of voters on both sides.
This article reconstructs that segmentation using survey-reported dissatisfaction levels, explains why the official presentation makes NDA’s dominance appear sharper than it really is, and interprets what this means for future political projections.
Digging deeper…
Step 1: The Raw Numbers
MOTN August 2025 shows:
- NDA alliance vote share: ~46.7%
- I.N.D.I.Alliance vote share: ~41%
- Others/ Unaligned parties: ~12%
In terms of seats, this converts to NDA at 324, I.N.D.I.Alliance at 208 — a gap of 116. But note: the actual difference in vote share is just 5.7%.
Some of the Opposition vote share indeed gets fragmented due to disunity among them. But there’s a fair chance that some of them may patch up by the next elections in the interest of their survival.
Step 2: Using issues as a lens
The survey does not explicitly ask voters, “Are you a die-hard supporter or issue-based?”
Instead, it asks about government performance on different parameters. These can be used as proxies for issue-sensitivity:
- Economy: Only 47.8% rated performance as good or outstanding. In other words, 52.2% were dissatisfied or neutral.
- Democracy: 48% of respondents said Indian democracy is in danger.
- Foreign policy/ security (Operation Sindoor): While 54.5% rated the handling as strong, 45.5% did not.
Opposition to the NDA government, averaging across these indicators, based on issues: (52.2 + 48 + 45.5) / 3 = 48.6%. Note that these are in a narrow band of 45.5% to 52.2%.
Thus, roughly 49% of voters are issue-sensitive (evaluating government performance critically), while 51% are loyalist (less swayed by these concerns).
In the absence of any data about loyalists and issue-sensitive voters for the NDA and I.N.D.I.Alliance, let’s assume the issue-sensitive percentages to be the same across parties. This is a fair assumption, esp considering that any of these percentages are not very different across NDA and I.N.D.I.Alliance.
Step 3: Splitting the blocs
NDA (46.7% voters)
- Die-hard Modi/BJP = 46.7 × 0.51 = 23.8%
- Issue-based NDA = 46.7 × 0.49 = 22.9%
I.N.D.I.Alliance (41% voters)
- Die-hard Opposition = 41 × 0.51 = 20.9%
- Issue-based Opposition = 41 × 0.49 = 20.1%
Others (12%)
- Regional/ unaligned = 12%
Step 4: The full picture
Group % of electorate
- Die-hard Modi/ BJP 23.8%
- Issue-based with Modi/ BJP 22.9%
- Die-hard Opposition 20.9%
- Issue-based with Opposition 20.1%
- Others/ Regional 12%
- Total 100%
What looks like an overwhelming NDA dominance is, in reality, two blocs of nearly equal weight. Both have loyal cores (~21–24%) and issue-based flanks (~20–23%).
Step 5: Why does the data look different in headlines
‘First Past The Post (FPTP) System’ magnifies gaps
A small 5.7% national vote lead translated into 116 more seats because the NDA’s vote is concentrated in northern and western India, where margins directly translate into extra constituencies.
I.N.D.I.Alliance, by contrast, piles up a large part of its votes in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Bengal, producing fewer seats per % of votes.
Leadership perception skews the narrative
Modi is still the preferred PM for 51.5% of respondents, versus 24.7% for Rahul Gandhi. This wide personal gap overshadows the issue-based discontent that runs through NDA’s support base.
Media highlights topline figures
Published summaries emphasize seat projections and leader ratings, not cross-tabulated data. The core vs issue-based divide remains buried in the tables.
Step 6: Issue-by-issue dissection
Economy
52.2% dissatisfaction/ neutrality signals that the economy remains the weak spot of the government.
Among NDA supporters, this translates to nearly half being conditionally supportive, backing Modi but watching closely.
For the Opposition, criticism of the economy is a potential unifying plank to expand its issue-based support.
Voter decisions could be significantly swayed by newer reforms benefiting the individual voters and the state of the overall economy at the election time.
Democracy
48% believing democracy is in danger suggests a broad unease that cuts across party lines.
Die-hard BJP supporters either dismiss this as rhetoric or see Modi as a protector of democracy.
Issue-based NDA voters, however, may shift allegiance on this issue if the perception deepens.
For the Opposition, this concern strengthens their appeal beyond their loyal base.
Foreign policy and security
Operation Sindoor drew approval from 54.5% of voters, showing national pride still works for the ruling alliance.
Yet, 45.5% unimpressed is a significant block, indicating even high-profile foreign policy wins cannot paper over domestic anxieties. Some of them may have wanted stronger action against Pakistan, though they may rate the Opposition much weaker than the NDA government.
This is critical: Modi’s image as a strong leader abroad does not automatically translate into immunity at home.
Leadership
Modi remains far ahead in personal ratings. His die-hard base is the single largest loyalist bloc in Indian politics.
Rahul Gandhi’s ratings have improved significantly (his “poor” rating fell from 27% to 15%). This feeds directly into the I.N.D.I.Alliance’s issue-based surge, though not yet into hard loyalty.
The key takeaway: Modi’s base has a significantly bigger image, Rahul’s momentum is real, though far behind Modi.
We may have to count the sum total of the momentum of the I.N.D.I.Alliance partners, not just Rahul’s, if the Opposition shows unity.
Step 7: Implications for the future
The real battleground is the middle 43%
Issue-based NDA supporters (22.9%) + Issue-based I.N.D.I.Alliance Supporters (20.1%) = 43% of the electorate.
These are the swing voters who decide elections based on performance, not ideology.
Core Support = Stability, not victory
BJP’s 23.8% die-hard support ensures relevance but cannot alone deliver a majority without NDA partners.
Congress’s 20.9% loyal base is even less sufficient unless issue-sensitive opposition to NDA grows and there is a high level of Opposition unity.
Regional forces (other than I.N.D.I.Alliance) still matter
12% Others can tilt coalitions, less significantly though, esp in hung scenarios, because this % is divided among various Opposition outfits/ Independents and ‘Don’t Know/ Can’t Say’s.
Both alliances court such unaligned regional parties/ leaders even while projecting national confidence, not taking chances.
Performance could drive 2029 more than personality alone
Modi’s personal edge is undeniable, but survey responses show nearly half of NDA voters may be open to reconsidering their choice.
Sure enough, Opposition gains may depend less on rhetoric and more on delivering credible alternatives on the economy, jobs, and governance. But who knows?
Step 8: Caveats and limitations
Derived, not direct: MOTN does not explicitly classify voters as “die-hard” or “issue-based.” These splits have been inferred by applying dissatisfaction percentages to vote shares.
Weighting choices: Economy, democracy, and foreign affairs were equally weighted.
Giving greater weight to the economy (arguably the top concern) would slightly increase the issue-based share. There are also other issues, like the candidates, freebie promises, dominant local issues, etc.
Regional variation: National averages hide the fact that UP, Gujarat, or TN may show very different proportions.
Dynamic nature: Issue-based voters are by definition fluid; they can swing depending on events. And despite such voters’ views on issues, some of them could be loyal voters in either group.
In sum…
The August 2025 MOTN survey, if read beyond the surface, reveals a finely balanced electorate.
Roughly half of both NDA and I.N.D.I.Alliance voters appear to be die-hard loyalists, while the other half could be issue-based and open to persuasion.
The seat projections exaggerate NDA’s dominance because of First Past The Post mechanics and regional concentration, while Modi’s personal lead masks underlying fragility.
In truth, Indian democracy in 2025 appears to be less about two immovable camps and more about a large, evaluative middle.
It is this middle (or a significant part of it), pragmatic, performance-focused, and restless, that is likely to determine the trajectory of 2029. The battle is not for the cores; it is for the swing.
So BJP can’t take the 2029 election results for granted, despite Rahul being Rahul and not matching Modi by any stretch of imagination.
BJP should keep delivering more and more, increasingly and continuously, and can’t rest on its laurels.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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