Why India doesn’t need to chase the high-income tag
For a nation of India’s scale, lasting competitiveness and broad well-being may matter more than chasing the ‘high-income’ badge.
When the US cut off China’s access to advanced semiconductors, Beijing retaliated by curbing exports of rare-earth metals essential to chip-making and EVs. No troops moved, no borders shifted, but global industries trembled.
With near parity in defence, and nukes as a standby, this is how power works today. Conquest has turned into control. The battlefield is technology, and the ammunition is supply chains.
The US and China are at economic war because they are both chasing global dominance.
The prosperity paradox
Economists, esp in India, often talk about the ‘middle-income trap’, the idea that successfully growing nations get stuck halfway to prosperity.
Perhaps being sustainably ‘stuck’ at middle income is equitable success earned through effort, not fragile, high-income affluence born of entitlement and excess.
Sure enough, high-income countries live at the frontier of technology, but every new step forward costs them billions, and progress slows with complexity.
India, on the other hand, can grow by innovating on proven technologies, improving efficiency, and investing in people. It can also compete in emerging technologies through R&D and patents, without copying the West’s consumption-driven model.
What matters is not how much each citizen earns in dollars, but how much value the nation creates from every rupee, every brain, and every opportunity, and how well we bridge the gap between the rich and the poor.
A realistic growth horizon
Some analysts argue that India must clock 9–10% consistent growth to achieve high-income status by 2047. That sounds heroic, but over a 20+ year horizon, it’s impractical in today’s world to achieve and sustain, esp when 2% is roughly the global average growth rate.
A steady 6–7% growth rate, however, compounded over time, can transform India beyond recognition, lifting millions up, expanding the middle class, and creating vast opportunities. That’s a success story by any measure. Even a few blips along the way should be fine.
We should certainly aim for double-digit growth. But not reaching it is not failure. It’s progress at a human pace. The danger lies in impatience, in despairing that we haven’t hit some arbitrary target.
Economic growth is not a 100-metre dash; it’s a marathon with potholes, heat, and headwinds. The real strength is not sprinting once, but running steadily without breaking stride.
Enjoying the journey
If we can’t enjoy the process of nation-building, no destination will feel fulfilling if and when we reach it.
Let’s take pride in the journey we’re on, an India that builds its roads, its satellites, its vaccines, and its digital backbone largely with its own hands.
We still have internal flaws, bureaucracy, inequality, and social friction, not to speak of geopolitical and geo-economic uncertainties, but we also have resilience, creativity, and youth in abundance to sustain us.
A confident middle-income India can combine the comfort of maturity with the drive of ambition. That’s a far stronger model than the jaded overdeveloped economies, fretting like cats on a hot tin roof.
Strength through scale
Even at middle-income levels, India’s total GDP will place it among the world’s top three economies, if not at the very top. That sheer scale, combined with a skilled, affordable, and democratic workforce — eager to work, not to retire and vacation forever — will make India indispensable to the global system.
Our strength will lie in human capital, not in military muscle or global domination. We don’t need to be the world’s richest nation to be one of its most respected.
What middle-income India can offer the world
A middle-income India that stays globally competitive can:
- Offer affordable innovation to the developing world, low-cost healthcare, renewable energy, and digital governance.
- Anchor global manufacturing without pricing itself out of the market.
- Provide youthful energy in an ageing world.
- Show that democracy and growth can coexist without authoritarian shortcuts.
This model of steady, self-confident progress may become India’s most powerful export.
Staying the course
We must invest in education, health, and skill-building, focusing more on outcomes. These will be our true multipliers of growth. Infrastructure, energy, and defence must modernize and grow continuously, but without chasing grand illusions of building any empire.
Yes, we should aim higher every year. But we should also respect ground realities. Nations that grow in GDP terms mindlessly without consolidating often stumble under their own weight.
A calm but sustained 6-7% for 25 years will quietly do what fireworks cannot: build a strong, stable, self-assured nation.
The Indian way forward
India’s goal should not be to become a bullying superpower, but to become a steady power: trusted, respected, and competitive for generations.
We should aim to become and stay middle-income in dollar terms, while being high value in human terms: educated citizens, clean governance, strong families, and social harmony.
We should not aspire to dominate the world by fear or conversion, but by example and contribution. Our leadership should come not from arrogance, but from ability and humility.
The closing thought
In a world obsessed with rankings, India should be the nation that finds contentment in direction, not destination.
Let others chase per capita bragging rights. India should chase enduring competence and competitiveness.
Let’s be clear: all these are ambitions, not accomplishments. We’re not talking about where India stands today, but the direction it should continue to pursue.
If we stay the course — realistic in ambition, relentless in effort, and resilient in spirit — middle income will not be a trap. It will be a sweet spot where aspiration meets satisfaction.
This, ultimately, could be the mark of a Vishwa Mitra, or even a Vishwa Guru.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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