PM Modi’s Bengal win reshapes national politics, says Bloomberg report
In a detailed analysis published by Bloomberg, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is portrayed as emerging politically stronger after the BJP’s sweeping victory in the recent West Bengal Assembly elections, with the report suggesting that the result could significantly shape the road to the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.
Bloomberg noted that in the “sweltering summer of 2024,” India’s general election had signalled that Modi’s decade-long rule “might be under threat.” However, the publication observed that the BJP’s breakthrough win in West Bengal, combined with setbacks for incumbent parties in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, has now “left his opponents in tatters and extended the reach” of the BJP beyond its traditional northern strongholds.
According to Bloomberg’s analysis of voting patterns, Modi, 75, appears to be successfully rebuilding momentum ahead of the next national election due by mid-2029 — a development that could position him to become India’s longest-serving leader.
“Three years is a long time, but I think that the BJP is simply in a very strong position now to go into those elections as the heavy favourite to win a fourth term,” Michael Kugelman, resident senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council in Washington, told Bloomberg. “This is one of Modi’s biggest political wins in quite some time.”
The report said Modi’s political strategy since 2014 has focused heavily on consolidating the Hindu vote, which makes up nearly 80 per cent of India’s population but has historically remained divided along caste and regional lines. Bloomberg noted that while the 2024 Lok Sabha election saw opposition parties regain ground in several Hindu-majority regions, the latest state election results suggest Modi’s broader political vision remains intact.
Bloomberg wrote that the BJP has reframed its campaign around “religious identity, national security and welfare delivery,” while portraying rivals as “minority appeasers.” The report also referred to the ongoing revision of voter rolls, an exercise critics claim disproportionately affects poor and Muslim voters.
“The results show a strong consolidation of the Hindu votes both in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu,” BJP spokesperson Sudhanshu Mittal told Bloomberg. “The BJP will naturally look to expand in southern India after having complete dominance in the western, northern and now eastern part of the country.”
Citing its constituency-level analysis, Bloomberg said the BJP has steadily strengthened its hold in West Bengal constituencies with higher Hindu populations, continuing a trend first seen in the 2021 Assembly polls. At the same time, the report observed that constituencies with larger Muslim populations witnessed opposition votes getting split among multiple candidates, preventing a united anti-BJP challenge.
The report added that Modi’s “worse-than-expected” performance in the 2024 national election appears to have galvanised the BJP further. Since then, the party has either won or regained power in major states such as Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi.
Bloomberg highlighted Modi’s aggressive campaign in West Bengal against Mamata Banerjee, describing her as one of the few opposition leaders capable of uniting anti-BJP parties nationally. The report said Modi focused on issues such as illegal migration, corruption, women’s welfare and unemployment during the campaign.
The publication also referred to the Election Commission’s revision of electoral rolls in West Bengal ahead of the election, during which nearly nine million names were removed. While authorities said the move targeted duplicate entries and illegal migrants, opposition parties alleged that the process disproportionately affected poor and Muslim voters.
“Liberal democracy is under threat,” Rajya Sabha MP Kapil Sibal told Bloomberg. “What is even more disturbing is that there isn’t an immediate solution to this.”
Bloomberg’s analysis pointed to what it called a “growing, seat-level polarisation” in West Bengal. The BJP, which had won only three seats in the state a decade ago, surged to 207 seats in the latest election, securing a two-thirds majority in the Assembly.
The report clarified that its findings were based on constituency-level trends rather than individual voting data, relying partly on research by Raphael Cohen Susewind of the London School of Economics and Political Science, who used electoral roll names to estimate the likely religious makeup of constituencies.
Bloomberg further noted that the BJP’s victory may give Modi more political flexibility on both economic reforms and ideological issues. The report said the government could now push harder on business-friendly reforms aimed at attracting global manufacturers while also advancing politically sensitive proposals such as a Uniform Civil Code and simultaneous national and state elections.
“The uncertain and volatile global environment has increased the urgency for India to strengthen its domestic economic defences through reforms,” Sonal Varma, economist with Nomura Holdings Inc., told Bloomberg. “With the next general elections due by May 2029, the window to implement some of the tougher reforms is the next 18 months, before political considerations begin to dominate the agenda.”
Despite the BJP’s strong momentum, Bloomberg noted that the opposition still has opportunities in upcoming state elections in Gujarat, Punjab, Goa and Uttar Pradesh. However, the publication quoted several political observers who argued that the opposition remains fragmented and lacks a cohesive strategy against Modi.
“A similar trend is likely to be seen within the BJP also,” political analyst Sandeep Shastri told Bloomberg, comparing the BJP’s current dominance to the Congress party’s supremacy during the 1960s and 1970s.
Meanwhile, veteran CPI(M) leader Hannan Mollah expressed pessimism about the opposition’s future prospects.
“The opposition hasn’t been able get its act together and continues to be fragmented,” Mollah told Bloomberg. “As long as the opposition cannot find common ground, I don’t see a credible opposition to BJP or Modi at hand.”
For all the latest updates, download PGurus App.
