EP 202 | Daily Global Insights | Jul 13, 2021 | US News | India News | Global News | Markets

Sree Iyer: Namaskar, Today is July 13th, Tuesday, and Welcome to Daily Global Insights with Sri and Sree. This is Episode 202.

In Global News, Japan nears Homegrown vaccine with Daichi Sankyo Phase 3 Trials. Taiwan props Probes Possible COVID Outbreaks in TSMC otherwise known as Taiwan Semiconductor Company. Welcome to PGurus Channel sir and your thoughts on Japan’s vaccine solution.

Sridhar Chityala: Good morning to everybody on this cloudy day here. Well, I think Japan is recognizing the fact that it cannot be reliant on just vaccines being imported, it needs to manufacture its own vaccines, but it also needs to be augmentative and supportive. It seems to be lending a big hand to Taiwan in lieu of various things that are going on. It’s a very positive development.

Taiwan is actually probing the Covid outbreak in TSMC – Taiwan Semiconductor Company as you rightly say the reason being is very important is that you are beginning to see this you know there was a discussion by I think Mr Mani is one of the channel one of the Fireside Chats about how these things can be manually triggered if you go back in one of the DGIs we had talked about in Vietnam, the Samsung factory became the vehicle or venue for spreading. So, this is something funny that they are choosing factories and complexes, which is very, very pivotal, but at the same time, has a large pool of a population. You are beginning to see this vaccine being targeted. So it is very interesting. I don’t want to draw any conclusions but the data is too correlative.

Sree Iyer: 200-plus Hong Kong pro-democracy lawmakers quit local councils. Laos deepens the reliance on China for key projects.  Now Laos is adjacent to Thailand and Cambodia isn’t it, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: Correct. Correct. So, this Cambodian Laos coming from the history of communist regimes have been easily absorbed and taken and destroyed by China. Even for that matter to some extent Myanmar, it’s fascinating to see how these communist nations still aligned with recognizing, and knowing what the outcomes flow with it. So, that’s the takeaway.

But what is sad in Hong Kong, is most of the democratic players within the Hong Kong system. All quitting recognizing the consequences of otherwise staying on could be catastrophic to them.

Sree Iyer: Manila confronts Beijing Five years after South China ruling. Biden Administration embraces Trump strategy of denouncing all Chinese claims in the South China Sea and offer support to Philippine Territorial claims.  The US Navy, says, China’s cling of driving US Destroyer out of South China Sea is false. We must remember that this happened under Obama’s watch. The fact that China occupied Spratly and then ignored the international Court verdict. Sir, What do you think Biden can do differently now?

Sridhar Chityala: Biden cannot do anything differently because this is Obama administration three, which is currently in vogue in the United States. So he is following the exact policies of Obama, but he will put up a token fight which is to say, I support the Philippines but the Philippines has fought on its own.

China abused the international court of justice ruling and all these progressives, the so-called fascist, socialist organizations talk about you know Global organizations are needed for bilateral multilateral engagement and resolution, ICJ, WHO or even for that matter the United Nations Human Rights group under the United Nations, or classic examples of failures of these cartels, which are called a central organization. Here in this instance, ICJ ruled in favour of the Philippines, both the Scarborough shoals and then these Spratly Islands and China unilaterally denounced it. So which means it does not follow. Whereas, if it is any other Nation, let’s assume it’s Iran. They’ll impose sanctions. But it’s China, do they impose sanctions? No, they don’t impose any sanctions. So, China remains unpunished, this clearly happened under Obama’s watch not only this, the number of claims that they made in the Pacific Ocean also imposing no-fly zones, all occurred under his watch.

Sree Iyer: Florida-based doctor is arrested as the central figure in the Haitian President assassination. What was a Florida-based doctor doing in Haiti Politics, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: The story is that he’s Haitian in whether he’s in Exile, or whether he is got a vested interest. We don’t know if one of these high-flying guys had his own private plane Etc. So he supposed to have been in touch with some of these people and more information will come out, but it seems to have happened. They probably a couple of other Haitian citizens, who are now American citizens living out of Florida. By the way, there is a large concentration of Haitians living in Florida. So I am not saying, it’s not a surprise but, they seem this event is very unfortunate that it has happened from here.

Sree Iyer: EU governments approved plan and investment strategy to develop a counter to China’s Belt and Road strategy and counter Beijing influence. The Dutch President apologizes for lifting covid-19 sanctions too soon. French President to outline a plan to combat covid-19 as Delta variant cases rise. So, to your point that, you know, these things seem to be coming from a specific location and then spreading mildly. I think it lends, Credence to what I think you mentioned about a fireside chat that I had with Mr RVS Mani,  where he had clearly pointed out a location in Pakistan as having, a satellite office of viruses virology and from where he suspected that the Delta variant started in Mumbai is the Dharavi Slum. Sir, this is getting really, really scary and the world needs to take notice, and take some action, isn’t it?

Sridhar Chityala: The World needs to take cognizance of the fact and get to the root cause of the problem and the source and origin of viruses and their wild and catastrophic spread around the world it doesn’t seem to stop, they are coming in spasms. So, how long this going to continue? Nobody knows but nobody wants to get to the source. There is no consensus as a lot of statements but we are going to be here soon with Delta Variant. Now, it’s come to our European Neighbours. We already have quite a few cases in the United States over. 50% of the Active cases are supposed to be of Delta variant. Everybody is just got their freedom. So they’re enjoying their freedom, hopefully, we will contain it. Then, we have another challenge in the United States and some parts of Europe. But, Europe is doing much better than the United States, which is the inertia to vaccinate because of their fear of whether the vaccination itself can be more damaging. So, in the absence of vaccines, how these people are going to combat this remains a big question mark.

Sree Iyer: European Union will be training with the Mozambique army to fight ISIS-linked Jihadis. 49 killed in Niger armed attack including 4 soldiers and 40 armed Terrorist attackers. Looks like ISIS seems to have taken rebirth in Africa, especially in that region that we talked about Sir.

Sridhar Chityala: Yes indeed. Sorry! You finished your thought of stream Sreeji.

Sree Iyer: I was just trying to say that, this is now dispersed itself into the Sahel region and it’s beginning to rear its ugly head.

Sridhar Chityala: Yes, I think we have been reporting if you recall in DGI, bringing two people to light that, there is a very big threat looming. And these people are in, you know, hundreds and hundreds and hundreds. This particular State in Niger, you know, 100-140 people or more than 100 people came in scoot in motorcycles, attacked a bunch of villagers and including the police and army. And so if you have that, then you go to Mozambique and the, again a version of ISIS working with the supporting forces and fighting the government. Then we talked about the Central African region, we talked about Tanzania, we talked about South Sudan, we talked about Burkina Faso, we talked about the Algier region. So, you are beginning to see, now it may be a painting, a picture of the Sahel region, you know, spreading from east to west, north to south, then you have Somalia going all the way back to Djibouti area. So you’re beginning to see this whole polarization. It’s quite frightening, if it spins out of control, what can be the consequences for the rest of the world? And we have already talked about the three I’s, the Confluence of Israel, Iran and Iraq, where there’s a fair amount of activities taking place if you just flip across the other side. Then, you have Yemen where you have the Houthis and other kinds of people. So we have a lot to contend with and then now we have Afghanistan also coming into the picture. And today as we are, we haven’t reported here. But as we came into the program, the Taliban has said that it has never shrunk its relationship with Al-Qaeda and neither made a statement that it has broken off.

Sree Iyer: India news, like China, deploys the S400 Defense shield over Indian Border, India sets to buy the same despite Possible US Sanctions threats. Now, there are people who are saying that India will be calling the US’s bluff and that the US will not be imposing any sanctions. I don’t know what logic they are basing this reasoning on. Your thoughts, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: First and foremost India needs to take care of its defence and security needs rest of the stuff can come later. Okay, so India has got 1.4 billion people and it has to use all equipment and capabilities that are required to defend itself. The rest of the stuff, I am sure, can take care of as the situation develops rather than being speculative about it.

Sree Iyer: Made in India, HAL to deliver First Batch of Light Combat Helicopters to Indian Army.  Indian Domestic Companies commit more than 200 Crores towards Manufacturing IT Hardware as part of the PLI program. Sir, let’s take a quick look at this. India does not have the raw materials for many of the ideas, I mean they still have to source the components from China and Taiwan, isn’t it?

Sridhar Chityala: I think that they have to Source, quite a few components but India’s Hardware industry going time immemorial from television, tubes and the local PCS Etc. They have been building up their capabilities and there have been small-scale Industries, which have developed, but to your point, whether many of them perished when China stepped in and the import regulation came in to import these components, whether the substitution it has happened or will happen. We don’t know, but they are two things that one can look at one is the development of you know, Japan and the development of Samsung, in terms of, many ancillaries and Manufacturing parts, and they have locations in India, for the that is substituted and whether that’s adequate to substitute, some of the Chinese Imports I can’t answer, but I have a feeling that probably is the route that they are taking. I think Vietnam and Japan and Taiwan for that matter could be the source of discovery for India as it tries to build its own manufacturing.

Sree Iyer: Retail inflation falls marginally in May as industrial production rises by 29.3% on low base effect. Favourable Monsoon is likely to keep Farm output and keep prices in check. India’s current vaccine rate is not good enough says Dr Arvind Panagariya former NITI Aayog chairman. India must lift its vaccine rate to 50 to 60 lakhs that is 5 to 6 million per day and not the current three to four million. Is it vaccine hesitancy or is it production-related issues, Dr Panagariya wondered? Sir, your thoughts. Do you think that India is still wrapping up its production and it might be September before it can hit the numbers that it needs to hit, sir?

Sridhar Chityala:  July to August, it looks like it’s going to miss that bus. If you recall, we had mentioned that both Covaxin, as well as Covishield, were supposed to lift the production from July. They clearly seem to have missed the bus and that seems to be pushed to September. So, therefore, as to your point have they missed the bus and is it going to be delayed? It looks like. That’s number one. Number two is there are enough vaccines available. Every day, you can look at the report. there are enough vaccines at any given point in time. There are close to about 18 to 20 million vaccines available. Clearly, some states are not toeing the line and creating the distribution and vaccination centres to lift the vaccine rates. So that’s also equally vital. Whether there is hesitancy, I don’t believe there is hesitancy in India. There is definitely a hesitancy in the United States and some of the developed nations. In India, there is an anxiety to get vaccinated to mitigate. So I think India has to lift the game particularly around establishing more distribution centres and more vaccine melas, as they call it, to get the rates up.

Sree Iyer: Let’s take a look at the United States related news. White House urges states to use covid funds to fight crime. An amazing statement in itself. Having supported defund police and trying to enact policing loss from the house, the Biden government appears to have lost it. This is really, really disturbing news. I mean, you have a portion of money for something and they are trying to take it and apply it to something else. How can a federal government be suggesting something like this? This is really, really concerning, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: Well, we’re in July. The allocation for healthcare spending was roughly about 662 billion out of the $6 trillion, roughly $60 million dollars if you recall. Of which they have spent $348 billion. They have got close to another $314 billion left. So Biden eyes it and says take that money and spend it. First, they would defund the police to help the communities. Now, what they saying refund using the Health Care budget, that’s why we have enough cushion. So it brings to bear the Republicans’ question, how accurate and how good these fiscal stimuli programs are in terms of allocations made? Is it a ‘pie in the sky’ approach? Is it a ‘rule of thumb’ approach? Or is it really quantitative in terms of allocation of the budget? It doesn’t seem to be. So, therefore, now he is Mr Biden himself is saying, no, he’s not saying, we are saying the numbers. He’s not saying. It is $314 billion left. Even if you take $100 billion for the rest of the year gives you plenty of money. You can take that money and send it. Not a very good practice if you are running a business, but that’s Mr Biden.

Sree Iyer: Rep Clyburn Warns defund the Police a “Chokehold” around the Democratic Party. DeSantis says disrespected Police Officers can Relocate to Florida. Wow, that is something else. But at least one state acknowledges the contribution of the police officers. I’m glad even if it is just a token statement, it did come, sir. I think we need to respect all our law bodies and firefighters everyone, they all are deserving and worthy of respect. This defund does not make sense to me, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: It has an addictive recognized it and suddenly realized that they need protection but it’s probably as you said the horse has left the stable. DeSantis has been outstanding in terms of what he’s doing in the Florida assembly. Same with Abbott, he has been doing an outstanding job in Texas. These are the two states which are fairly visible and vocal. Of course, Arizona has been fairly active as well in terms of some of the other stuff that they’re doing. But to come back to your point, he’s basically saying if we need more law enforcement, we respect what you have done and we want you here. Remember, DeSantis also sent people to the border to protect against a crime and other types of activity on the surges that have been going on for some time, these are illegal immigrants surges.

Sree Iyer: Biden to lay out a moral case for opposing GOP voter law, says Jen Psaki, the White House Press Secretary. Texas Democrats plan walkout to block GOP election overhaul Bill, says party chairman, since 51 of them have flown to Washington DC. This is ridiculous. This is just like India where they take a bunch of MLAs and house them from one state to another state because they think that these guys might be purchased. Court Mulls whether to sanction Lin Wood and Sidney Powell, as the Judge heard arguments both for and against the  Sanctions. US federal Judge Linda Parker, an Obama Nominee was hearing the case in King et al Vs Whitmer et al.

So we have a very interesting situation. First, I want you to tell our viewers about these 51 Congressmen of Texas state who are trying to make sure that the quorum is not there to pass the laws.

Sridhar Chityala: It is very interesting. When I look at 2020, the whole development and evolution of 2020, and then what’s happening since is very much the Playbook of Democrats looks like the Congress party of India or even the political system in India. I’m not suggesting BJP or Communists don’t do, they all do something similar. Take the whole hoard of people in buses, park somewhere and make them turn up before the governor on the day when the count is taken. Here, what they have done? 58 of them have taken a plane, in fact, it’s very nicely photographed and shown. Many of them wearing no masks. And yes, Mr Biden says, we all have to be careful, wear masks in a collective setting, not in an open setting. 58 of them have gone. So it basically brings to question, does democratic party believe in Democratic Norms or they use judiciously according to her own whims and fancies. So to break the quorum they want to leave. So the question that is open to the Texas senators is whether to ban these people. Whether to use the Texas State local constitution to ban these people because they have failed to discharge. Apparently, there is a clause that says they can be arrested and brought to the thing. But I stand to be corrected but this is one of the pieces that could be more extreme view in terms of whether that is the case in the Constitution, I don’t know. But if you are in the country and if you are in the state, then on that day, when a special session has been called you quit, it just is amazing. Whereas to the contrary, in the federal House and Senate, they are using one seat majority which is the vice president to push the laws. When there is a filibuster, what they do is when they cannot get away from the filibuster, then they are using what we call a reconciliation bill, an executive action to get things done. So what the democrats are telling us is they will use any and every method that is at their disposal to get to what they want to achieve, come what may. So I don’t know, but it is going to be very interesting what’s going to happen and what is going to come out in Texas.

Sree Iyer:  White House pushes for Green New Deal measures through the budget reconciliation process. The unemployed Oklahomans can return to work with their $1200 back to work incentive. Now, this is just mind-boggling. There are genuine businesses that are not getting funded they’re all closing shop, a very very interesting state of affairs in California. Let’s talk about it at a different time. But your thoughts on what is happening in Oklahoma, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: Well, it’s very interesting because Oklahomans are saying ‘hey, we’ll pay you money. Come back and start working because you will earn more. We’re going to cut off.’ But I want to get to this great Green New Deal venture. What they’re saying is, this is the extent to which these fellows have gone. They’re about 48 different progressive groups that all push for this Green Deal. They have written to Biden saying ‘don’t take China to task, don’t be harsh, don’t be critical, because we want to work with China to get the Green Deal done.’ So you’re talking about whether we can get to the source of discovery of covid. These progressive groups or some of these Democrats, don’t care. It’s okay, covid is fine but Green Deal is important. So, therefore, we work exactly the same, we don’t want to use democratic principles. We’ll use the reconciliation process to get the numbers. This is how we’re going to blow the numbers out. Nothing will happen, we’ll be in the same situation four years from today.

Sree Iyer: State department officials criticized for depicting Cuba’s anti-communist protests as covid-19 demonstrations increase in Cuba. In fact, they are waving American flags there. Critics accuse Twitter of minimizing Cuban protests in a trending section. So now the cat is getting out of the bag. So there are some welcome left protests and not so welcome left protests according to Twitter. Is this what the critics are accusing Twitter of, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: The critics can accuse. Jack Darcy has been very vocal. He’s a left-wing supporter and you can see sometimes where his sympathies lie in terms of the orchestration of what happens within the Twitter platform. Look my view in this is, it’s an independent company, it has a set of policies it’s publicly listed. He may as well be very open about it. That’s all I’m saying. ‘Look, these are my principles, this is how it is. You want to be on my platform, be on my platform. You want to advertise on my platform, advertise on my platform. But don’t pretend you are a saint but then follow something ghastly in the daily implementation of your policies which is reflected in the outcomes such as this. This is most outrageous, the state department by a guy saying Cuba protest is covid-19 demonstration when everybody knows that it is against the fascist regime that has ruled Cuba for years, by the way, Bernie Sanders. You should go and see the website of Bernie Sanders and who his political mentors or political heroes are. He has not uttered one statement on Cuba and he’s supposed to be leading the so-called movement of reformation in the United States.

Sree Iyer: Let’s take a quick look at Markets before we call it a wrap. Stock indexes rose on Monday, marginally upbeat about second-quarter earnings. Your thoughts on second-quarter earnings, sir, before we wind down today’s program.

Sridhar Chityala: Second-quarter earnings are going to be better than last year second-quarter earnings. It will be a linear up basically because in the United States we compare comparative. Comparative meaning this quarter last year, what was it last year this quarter? We were suffering here, we were shut down. So all numbers are going to be greater. We may see marginal upticks in the markets in the second quarter but the markets are all already high relative to the year-end projections. We may see begin to see more uptick in the fourth quarter because that’s when things began to normalize if you recall. More people, we hope will get back to work and more people will spend more money that is sitting in the bank accounts because that’s when the winter and the holiday season kicks in.

Sree Iyer: With that, we bring today’s DGI to a close. Thanks for joining, do subscribe to our channel, like us, share us, click on the bell button to subscribe. Evidently, just clicking on the subscribe button doesn’t do the trick. You don’t get notifications. Also, I’m told that if you click on the bell button you do get notified. Do that for our sake. Thank you very much. Namaskar and see you tomorrow. Sridharji, we will be back again tomorrow.

Sridhar Chityala: We’ll be back again tomorrow. Thank you. Have a wonderful day.