To win the 2024 election, BJP needs more leaders like Modi and Yogi in every state
BJP is an election success machine. Yet I venture to write this article because I think they may have missed out on this important lesson.
The success of BJP has several components, like its choice of schemes and policies for the welfare of the people, last-mile delivery, dedicated karyakartas, election machinery up to the booth level which has been fine-tuned over the years, choice of candidates, feedback mechanisms, campaign management process, etc. All these are working well for them, by and large.
Despite the successes of the BJP, the fact is, more than 50% of the electorate are opposed to BJP nationally and in almost every state. So, BJP gets a substantial majority mainly because of disunity among the opposition.
The sinking of Congress and the emergence of AAP as a potential threat is something BJP has to watch out for, as Congress votes could get transferred to AAP over time. AAP has a very long way to go still to become a real threat. BJP won’t take them lightly notwithstanding what they may say in public.
Recent allegations about AAP’s acts of corruption and the involvement of its leaders in riots could work against AAP, but the charges should be proved in courts.
Parties opposed to BJP, including Congress and AAP, may find it difficult to get together to defeat it because of their internal contradictions, and the lack of easy transferability of votes of their electorate among them. This will be to the advantage of the BJP.
Yet, at some stage, not too far into the future, if BJP wins in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, either the opposition parties could come together in some form, or the electorate opposed to BJP may tactically decide to vote to defeat BJP, or more likely, some combination of both could happen. So, BJP should start preparing for that scenario from now on.
If we look back and see which of the BJP leaders have won the confidence and affection of the people repeatedly, we see that they are Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath.
There are some who succeeded significantly, even repeatedly but failed later, like Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Raman Singh, and to an extent, Vasundhara Raje Scindia. Though Vajpayee won a mandate only once as head of NDA, he’s worth mentioning, as BJP’s first PM.
Even L K Advani, who was a BJP stalwart, No. 2 under Vajpayee during the 2004 elections, and the BJP candidate for PM in the 2009 elections, couldn’t succeed. Though some other leaders like Rajnath Singh and Kalyan Singh were leaders with some state support base, they were not electoral successes as CMs.
The single most important reason why BJP loses some state elections is that most of their outgoing CMs don’t enjoy the confidence of the people, though the electorate wants to give power to BJP in the name of Modi. The one CM who has defied this recently is Yogi Adityanath.
If only BJP’s CMs were at least somewhat popular within their own states, BJP won’t have to keep changing CMs and will win even more elections in states.
What is common among the two most successful BJP leaders, Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath, and not common with the other less successful leaders of the BJP? They don’t have families and have dedicated themselves fully to public service. No one will dispute this whether one agrees with their policies/ style of functioning or not.
Since they have no families, they have no reason to be personally corrupt, they think of the welfare of the people all the time, 24X7, and work hard and ensure that they deliver what they set out to deliver to the people.
And, people are willing to forgive even what they perceive as their big failures, whether it is unemployment, price rise, demonetization, initial problems with GST, farm laws and their backtracking, polarized atmosphere, or whatever.
This has given them both, the opportunities to make bold experimentations. The electorate has generally not given the other BJP leaders that kind of leeway, because they suspect their personal probity, at the least.
If BJP were to pick at least some more leaders like Modi and Yogi with no families and groom them for the top positions like CM and PM, these leaders are likely to have far higher chances of political success than others at present because:
- There is likely to be less corruption and less perception of corruption. People are likely to give them that extra leeway because they have no family to amass wealth for.
- This gives them the opportunity to succeed by trial and error without fear of being misunderstood.
- They can work for the government and the party tirelessly, 24X7, which will make them more productive.
- If they don’t promote groupism within the party and go only by performance, politicking within the party can be curtailed which will make the party function efficiently.
Though this could act as a disincentive for politically powerful people to join or stay with BJP, the increased chances of being in power should make up for it.
So, BJP should ideally look for its future PMs and CMs first from among those who live without families, like Modi and Yogi, in RSS and BJP, of course without compromising on the competence and commitment of such people. When such people are not available, BJP can look among the other competent party cadres.
This opportunity is not available in most other parties because they are centered around their promoters and their families, and their primary purpose of being in politics is to make money. So, the CM/ PM contenders are pre-decided.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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True, that’s why I have also mentioned that BJP should select such candidates and groom them.
Besides, they have to be mass leaders or have to have the ability to become mass leaders.