Why Bharat’s fertility decline matters
Demographics and population science state that a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 average children born per woman during her reproductive years, ensures a stable population. Logically, a population grows if the TFR exceeds 2.1 and declines if it falls below 2.1. Demographic studies further indicate that declining population trends can be corrected down to a TFR threshold of 1.4. If the TFR drops below 1.4, the population’s decline becomes irreversible, placing it on an unavoidable path toward extinction over time.
As per data monitored by the Government of India and the United Nations, the TFR of Bharat has fallen below the replacement rate of 2.1 and currently stands at 1.9 children per woman. Most alarmingly, data suggests a TFR of 1.2 to 1.3 in urban areas, which has already crossed the point of no return. While the BIMARU states maintain a TFR above 2.1, producing a largely low-skilled or unskilled workforce, more industrialised and economically advanced states such as Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are at dangerous levels with a TFR of 1.5 children per woman, hovering marginally above the irreversible threshold. The demographic positives of BIMARU states have a huge potential for upskilling and creating a more productive and skilled workforce if proper focus is given.
Out of the 20 most prosperous countries comprising what is called the G20, only three (Saudi Arabia with TFR 2.35, South Africa with TFR 2.1 and Indonesia with TFR 2.12) remain at or above the replacement rate. As nations industrialise, prosper, and improve their per capita income, TFRs tend to decline. The most severe cases include South Korea with a TFR of 0.69, China at 0.98, and Japan and Italy at 1.18. Rapid economic growth creates high demand for labor, absorbing a large proportion of women into the workforce, which places severe strain on family planning and parenting. Over time, wealth creation slows as the productive young population shrinks, forcing societies to spend an increasing share of their resources on caring for a non-productive elderly population. While technology and robotics can offer partial relief, nothing can save a population once its TFR drops below the critical 1.4 mark.
In Bharat, the Muslim TFR stands at 2.4 children per woman, comfortably above the replacement rate. The Christian TFR has fallen marginally to 2.05, whereas the Hindu TFR has dropped below 1.9. Among urban, educated and economically well-off Hindus, the situation is particularly alarming, with TFR levels plunging to 1.1 to 1.2 children per woman. Demographic studies also indicate that skill development, education and industrial participation among Muslim women are progressing at a slower pace compared to their Hindu counterparts.
The oldest pending bill in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of Bharat’s parliament, is the Constitution (Seventy-ninth Amendment) Bill, 1992. It proposes population control measures and the disqualification of MPs and MLAs who have more than two children. Given that Bharat’s TFR has already fallen below replacement level, enacting such population control legislation today would be disastrous and catastrophic for the continuity of Bharat’s civilisation.
Some of the serious challenges and impediments contributing to the declining TFR, especially among Hindus, are:
- Breakdown of joint family structures.
- High cost of living and lifestyle expenses in metropolitan and urban areas, necessitating dual-income households.
- Lack of cost-effective childcare and early support systems.
Exorbitant healthcare costs for raising a child, including extensive vaccination schedules mandated during early childhood and corporate hospitals pushing for more cesarean deliveries as opposed to normal deliveries for obvious profitability motives.
Reluctance among women to undergo multiple pregnancies due to concerns about falling behind in competitive career paths.
Delayed marriages and pregnancies leading to higher rates of conception difficulties and maternal complications.
Globalist agendas pushing for global population reduction toward lower target levels.
Cultural shifts promoting hyper-individualism and personal rights over family and societal obligations, encouraging young minds to forego parenthood.
Unless Bharat actively corrects these trends of demographic decline, especially within the Hindu population, it may be impossible to reverse the collapse within a couple of generations. Dr Mohan Bhagwat, Sarsanghchalak of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), has emphasized that every Indian couple should aim to have at least three children, warning that communities with low fertility rates face the risk of extinction. Similarly, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu announced a one-time financial incentive of Rs.30,000 for a third child and Rs.40,000 for a fourth child, alongside increased funding for the ‘Talliki Vandanam’ (Respect to Mothers) scheme.
Special emphasis on protecting, nurturing, caring, and supporting the girl child is crucial for the survival of the community. Invading barbarians always captured women and girls, depriving the population of growth and survival. It is happening even now in the 21st century when some proselytizing religions are actively working to capture the girls/ women of another religion either by emotional means like the several complaints of Love Jihad we hear from time to time suggesting an organised pattern to capture the wombs of non-believers, or by force like we see especially in the Sindh province of Pakistan where Hindu minor girls are kidnapped, converted and married off to much elderly Muslim men, thus depriving the Hindu community of its growth. Yazidi girls were captured and used as slaves and were burned for refusing to convert. The patriarchal society molded due to centuries of capture, torture, and exploitation of women, especially in North Bharat, resulted in large-scale female infanticide for decades, destroying the gender balance in several states like Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and UP. PM Modi’s vision of “Beti Bachao Beti Padhao” has to be taken very seriously if we have to survive as a civilization.
The deep value placed on progeny is rooted in ancient Bharatiya wisdom. The 19th verse of the Sri Suktam prays to the Mother Goddess for children and grandchildren to continue the lineage:
पुत्रपौत्र धनं धान्यं हस्त्यश्वादिगवे रथम् ।
प्रजानां भवसि माता आयुष्मन्तं करोतु माम् ॥१९॥
putrapautra dhanaṃ dhānyaṃ hastyaśvādigave ratham.
prajānāṃ bhavasi mātā āyuṣmantaṃ karotu mām ..19..
“Salutations to Mother Lakshmi. O Mother, bestow upon us children and grandchildren to continue our lineage, along with wealth, grains, elephants, horses, cows, and carriages for our daily life. We are your children, O Mother; grant us long, healthy, and vibrant lives.”
Similarly, Rigveda 10.85.45, a Vedic marriage hymn from the Sūryā-Vivāha Sūkta, blesses the bride with fertility, prosperity and a large family:
इ॒मां त्वमि॑न्द्र मीढ्वः सुपु॒त्रां सु॒भगां॑ कृणु । दशा॑स्यां पु॒त्राना धे॑हि॒ पति॑मेकाद॒शं कृ॑धि ॥
इमां त्वमिन्द्र मीढ्वः सुपुत्रां सुभगां कृणु । दशास्यां पुत्राना धेहि पतिमेकादशं कृधि ॥
“O Indra, showerer of blessings, make her the mother of worthy sons and grant her good fortune. Bless her with ten sons, and make her husband the eleventh member of the household.”
धान्यं धनं पशुं बहुपुत्रलाभं शतसंवत्सरं दीर्घमायुः॥
“And let Your Auspiciousness manifest around as Wealth, Grains, Cattle and Many Offspring who live Happily for Hundred Years; who live Happily throughout their Long Lives.”
In Bharatiya heritage, Santana Lakshmi represents the understanding that children and grandchildren constitute true wealth. Population loss was traditionally viewed as a loss of vital strength, represented by Alakshmi, the antithesis of prosperity. Bharat’s civilisation laid great emphasis on family, lineage, and stable demographic growth to sustain its culture through centuries.
Governments, religious institutions, mathas, peethas, spiritual leaders, and society at large must urgently address the declining TFR in Bharat, especially among Gen Z. Reconnecting with ancestral, civilizational wisdom on demographic sustainability and finding solutions to modern-day industrialisation and urbanisation-related problems is vital to ensuring that Hindu civilisation continues to flourish for generations to come.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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He has visited 30+ sites associated with the Mahabharata and Vedic period, especially Harappan sites in India. Of special interest is traveling along the course of the extinct River Saraswati. Understanding and rediscovering the forgotten Hindu past of Kashmir has been an abiding interest and he has extensively visited kashmir including militancy affected areas.
Giridhar Mamidi is a trained Chartered Accountant with an additional degree in Law. In his long career, he has worked as CFO in Punj Lloyd Saudi Arabia, Unibeton Ready-mix UAE, as group head at ERP Al Faraa group and in DLF Offices and IT Parks Delhi. Prior to that, he has worked as Finance Head in Google India and ADP India.
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