Centre refutes Citigroup’s employment report, highlights positive job data
The Government of India on Monday issued a rebuttal to a recent Citigroup research note that had raised concerns over the pace of job creation. The report ‘fails to account for the comprehensive and positive employment data available from official sources such as the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) and the Reserve Bank of India‘s KLEMS data’, the Ministry of Labour and Employment said.
Citigroup had said that India would struggle to create enough jobs for its growing population over the next decade, even if the country grew at a 7 percent growth rate, and suggested more concerted steps were needed to boost employment creation. The Labour Ministry clarified that India has generated over 8 crore job opportunities between 2017-18 to 2021-22, which translates to an average of over 2 crore (20 million) jobs per year. This, despite the COVID-19 disruption, contradicts Citigroup’s assertion of a potential lack of employment in India.
Citi’s economists Samiran Chakraborty and Baqar Zaidi had written in the report that based on a growth rate of 7 percent, India can only generate 8-9 million jobs a year. Labour Ministry said that the official data sources have shown ‘consistent improvements’ in labour market indicators, and a falling unemployment rate in the last five years. It also added that EPFO and NPS data further back this positive employment trend, with manufacturing, services, infrastructure, and other emerging opportunities such as gig and platform economy and GCCs showing ‘robust future prospects’.
“The recent research report by Citigroup on Employment in India quoted by some of the print and electronic media, which forecasts that India will struggle to create sufficient employment opportunities even with a 7% growth rate, fails to account for the comprehensive and positive employment data available from official sources such as the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) and the Reserve Bank of India’s KLEMS data. Therefore, the Ministry of Labour and Employment strongly rebuts such reports which do not analyze all official data sources available in the public domain, “said the Ministry rebutting Citigroup’s research report.
The Labour Ministry also cautioned against the selective use of private data sources that can lead to distortion of India’s job scenario. Meanwhile, RBI data released on July 8 showed that India provisionally created 46.7 million jobs in the financial year 2023-24, taking the total employment to 643.3 million. India’s employment growth rate stood at 6% in 2023-24, as against 3.2% in the previous fiscal year, the RBI’s report showed.
“Further, some authors use data selectively which undermines the credibility of their analysis and does not present an accurate picture of the employment scenario in India. Such reports fail to consider the positive trends and comprehensive data from official sources,” said the Ministry.
“The official data sources like PLFS, RBI, EPFO, etc. show consistent improvements in the key labour market indicators, including increased Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) and Worker Population Ratio (WPR), and a declining unemployment rate during last five years. EPFO and NPS data further support the positive employment trends. The trends in manufacturing, expanding service sector, and infrastructure growth, apart from others, including emerging opportunities in multiple sectors such as gig and platform economy and GCCs indicate robust future prospects.
“The Ministry of Labour and Employment emphasizes the credibility and comprehensiveness of official data, cautioning against the selective use of private data sources that can lead to misleading conclusions about India’s employment scenario,” added the Ministry.
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