Census and research data show Ladakh’s tribal population in crisis
Words of Auguste Comte (French philosopher, 1798-1857) that Demography is Destiny continue to rule the roost more than 200 years after he coined the theory. Many nations and civilizations have vanished into thin air once the religious demography crossed the threshold level, and one need not explain more, as this has been discussed in a previous column in PGurus.
The chaos and riots that we saw in Ladakh recently, too, are the fallout of demographic decline in the region. This is not an observation or assessment by political commentators but by a group of population scientists who studied threadbare the sharp decline in Ladakh’s religious demography. Before explaining further, it is better to understand the ground realities in Ladakh.
Ladakh is a region in Jammu and Kashmir, the northernmost state of India. The generation born after the Indian independence is ignorant of the history of the state, as the first and third Prime Ministers of the country were adamant that the real history of Kashmir should not be taught either in schools or universities. Had the then-Pakistani government not dispatched its army and thugs (masquerading as soldiers) to Kashmir, it would have been the largest state in India. The Kashmir under Indian control has an area of 1,01,387 sq km, while Pakistan illegally occupies 1,20,849 sq km of the state. This means that had it not been for the Pakistani occupation, Kashmir would have had an area of 2,22,236 sq km.
Out of the 1,20,849 sq km area illegally annexed by Pakistan, it ceded 42,735 sq km to China, including the ultra-strategic Shaksgam Valley. Ladakh, with an area of 59,146 sq km has a population density of 4.64 (which means that each kilometer in the region has less than five persons). In 1979, Ladakh was bifurcated into Leh and Kargil. While Leh was a Buddhist-majority area, Kargil was dominated by Muslims.
After the bifurcation of Ladakh, the Muslim population in Kargil shot up, eclipsing Leh’s Buddhist population. Leh’s share of the Ladakh population was 50.89 percent at the time of bifurcation, but this declined to 50.2 percent by 1991.
The 2001 census showed that Ladakh had an ST population of 85 percent. But this shrunk to 72 per cent by 2011while the non-ST population increased by 79 per cent. The Buddhist population in Leh, which was 77.3 percent, had a steep decline by 2011 and stood at 66 percent.
The research paper points out that the fertility rate of the Buddhist and ST community population has come down, while that of the Muslims has shot up. “This is a matter of serious concern which has the potential to wipe out the Ladakh province from the map of India,” said Dr Gyaneshwar Chaubey, a molecular biologist who specializes in population studies, Banares Hindu University.
The significance of Kashmir’s size could be understood only when we learn that Madhya Pradesh has an area of 3,08,209 sq km, Uttar Pradesh measures 2,43,286 sq km, and Maharashtra has an area of 3,08000 sq km. Failure of the first Prime Minister (1947-1964) in retrieving the land annexed by the Pakistani soldiers remains a thorn in the country’s body politic. It is soothing to note that the great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, who ruled the country as Prime Minister for 17 years, is crisscrossing the country with a mission to save the Constitution, which to date is not facing any kind of threat.
After the reorganization of the princely states into the Indian Union post-independence, Kashmir was joined with Jammu, another state, and thus was born the new entity of Jammu & Kashmir. The State is made of three provinces, Kashmir, Jammu, and Ladakh. The princely State of Kashmir was a Muslim majority region, ruled by a Hindu King, which itself was a strange paradox. The Sheikh Abdullah family had converted the state into a private estate. What made Kashmir remain an undeveloped region remains unanswered. Articles 370 and 35A of the Constitution (the latter provision empowered the Kashmir government to decide who could be a permanent resident and buy immovable properties in the state) had made the state inaccessible to people from the rest of the country.
The state was always in turmoil as Islamic terrorists enjoyed a free run in Kashmir. Thousands of Hindus were subjected to genocide by these Islamic terrorists operating under various names. The Islamists supported by Pakistan from outside and the National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party governments from within were on a mission of ethnic cleansing. No international bodies condemned the massacre of Hindus by the terrorist organizations. The movie “The Kashmir Files” directed by Vivek Agnihotri was a heart-rending account of the history of Kashmir since 1947 and a chronicle of how the poor Pandits from the state ended up as refugees in their own country.
A research paper published by the Centre for Policy Studies, an independent think tank of scientists, philosophers, and sociologists, has found that the recent developments in Ladakh, a province in Kashmir, have a lot to do with the riots. As mentioned earlier, the State of Jammu & Kashmir included the three provinces of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh. Dr J K Bajaj and Prof M D Srinivas of CPS have found out that Ladakh is under great demographic stress. “It is in a state of distress. The special constitutional provisions that protect the life, culture, civilization, habitat of the vulnerable communities who live in remote hills and forests of the country could only address the issue,” Dr Bajaj told P Gurus.[1]
Dr Bajaj said that his study found that Tibetan Buddhist communities of Bot/ Boto and Changpa were under great demographic stress, making them a shrinking group. There has been a decline in the share of the Ladakh population in the total population of the state of J&K since 1951. The decade 2001-2011 saw a sharp decline in the Scheduled Tribe population in Ladakh.
Scheduled Tribe constituted 85.2 percent of the population of Ladakh in 2001. But the 2011 census brought out startling information. The ST population declined to 79.6 percent by 2011. Dr Baja says that this sharp decline is the result of the influx of non-tribal people. The research paper further states that the Buddhist ST communities, Bot/ Boto, and Changpa population went down by eight percent during this period, and this is disturbing to Kashmir as well as India as a whole.
Adding to the woes of the Buddhist population in Ladakh, the National Family Health Survey-V (2019-2021) held by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare found that the total fertility rate of Buddhists across India has declined sharply. The fertility rate of Buddhists in India is 1.39, which is far less than the replacement level of 2.1. The CPS research paper calls for caring and protective policies for the survival of vulnerable communities in Ladakh.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
Reference:
[1] Ladakh is under great demographic stress – Oct 15, 2025, Centre for Policy Studies
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