Was the GDP calculation changed to leave out Gold and then published?
Who imported the gold?
The massive influx of physical gold into the US in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by financial institutions, investors, and traders. They aggressively moved gold out of London OTC vaults—often routing it through Switzerland to be refined into COMEX-acceptable kilobars—before shipping it to New York [2] [3].
Why did they do it?
Traders were attempting to pre-empt the threat of new trade tariffs by the incoming Trump administration. Additionally, they were capitalizing on a temporary price dislocation (arbitrage) between New York gold futures and London spot prices [2] [3].
Was the GDP calculation changed?
Yes! Because standard economic accounting subtracts imports from the Gross Domestic Product, the sudden $29 billion surge in gold imports caused real-time forecasting models (like the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow) to mistakenly predict a severe -2.8% economic contraction [1] [4].
The Fix:
On April 23, 2025, the Atlanta Fed officially changed its widely followed GDPNow model to adjust for and exclude nonmonetary gold imports [1].
The Official BEA Publication:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) also excludes investment gold from its final GDP calculations because it acts as a store of wealth, not domestic consumption. When the official Q1 2025 GDP was published, it showed a much milder dip of just -0.3%, avoiding the “fake recession” scare [4].
References:
[1] Atlanta Fed introduces new GDP estimation model adjusted for gold trade – April 23, 2025, mining.com
[2] How the gold bullion boom sent a US recession alarm blaring – Mar 10 2025, ft.com
[3] Is the threat of US tariffs moving the gold market? – February 27, 2025, gold.org
[4] Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) – April 30, 2025 bea.gov
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