Has Kerala’s political balance shifted beyond Congress’ control?
“Tail Wagging the Dog” — this is the ideal description for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which swept the 2026 Assembly elections held in Kerala in April. The results turned out to be a political tsunami. The UDF had a dream run and bagged 102 out of the 140 seats in the Legislative Assembly, with the Congress reigning supreme by winning 63 out of the 92 seats it contested. The Muslim League, the most important constituent of the UDF, came second, winning 22 of 26 constituencies. At the same time, fringe parties like Kerala Congress (Joseph), RSP, some letterhead organisations, and independents romped home in the remaining 17 seats.
The ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which had 99 members in the outgoing Assembly, could win in just 35 constituencies, with 13 ministers in the council of ministers led by octogenarian Pinarayi Vijayan biting the dust in the hustings.
Though there were many allegations of corruption and financial embezzlement against the LDF government, even Vijayan had not expected an anti-incumbency wave of the magnitude seen in this year’s hustings.
The story unfolded once the poll results were announced. V D Satheesan (Leader of the Opposition in the outgoing Assembly), Ramesh Chennithala (senior Congress leader and member of the Congress Working Committee), and K C Venugopal, a close confidant of the Gandhi family based out of 10 Janpath, were the frontrunners for the post of Chief Minister. For more than 10 days, discussions were held in Thiruvananthapuram and New Delhi to zero in on the new Chief Minister. Back in Kerala, rallies and marches were organised by the followers and acolytes of the trio in district headquarters and towns. The contest to elect the Chief Minister appeared more intense than what was on display during the poll campaign.
It was a foregone conclusion that Venugopal, with the patronage and blessings of the Gandhi clan, would make it to Cliff House, the official residence of the Chief Minister. But things took a turn when the Muslim League pitched in with its demand that Satheesan should be made Chief Minister. What made Satheesan dear to the Muslim League and other Islamic outfits like Jamaat-e-Islami, Popular Front of India, SDPI, and Welfare Party was his open support for the principles and policies pursued by these organisations. In the run-up to the polls, he had described Jamaat-e-Islami as a secular organisation and other Muslim outfits as more patriotic than any other elements. Moreover, his family’s connection with Islamic elements through the marriage of a close family member to a Muslim youth added vigour and enthusiasm among Islamists. It is an open secret in Kerala that the Congress is the B-team of the Muslim League.
When the Gandhi clan wavered on announcing Satheesan as Chief Minister, posters appeared across Wayanad warning Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi that they would never see Parliament again from the Wayanad constituency. This defiance by Muslim League cadres tilted the balance in favour of Satheesan because Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had entered the Lok Sabha by contesting from Wayanad.
KM shaji who said religion is the only issue for Muslim league and they will claim extra benefits for their community, makes it to VDS cabinet, devoiding Satheesans avowed claim of secular govt.
— Dheeraj (@addheeraj) May 17, 2026
That the Congress is merely the nominal leader of the UDF, while the Muslim League and other Islamic outfits are the real power centres, became evident during the allocation of cabinet portfolios. The Muslim League walked away with all the money-spinning departments — industries, information technology, local self-government, public works, ports, fisheries, minority welfare, and general education. Though there were demands from Congress leaders to retain the education and minority welfare departments, the intervention of Muslim League chief Panakkad Sadiq Ali Thangal made the GOP silent, while 10 Janpath remained tight-lipped. K M Shaji, the newly appointed minister for local self-government and town planning, had declared during the campaign that the Muslim community had lost significant wealth during the LDF regime because it remained out of power for ten years, and therefore the party needed to win this time.
Though Ramesh Chennithala had won seven Assembly elections and served as Home Minister, it was P K Kunhalikutty who was accorded the number two position in the cabinet. Chennithala has reportedly been sulking since then. Moreover, Muslim leaders have questioned the sidelining of community leaders from Kozhikode and Kasaragod districts.
The Grand Old Party is often referred to in Kerala as the “Islamic National Congress” and “All India Christian Congress” because of its tendency to bend over backwards to appease minority communities. Out of the 140 members in the Legislative Assembly, 30 members in the UDF are from the Muslim community.
The first fallout of the 2026 Assembly elections is the bifurcation of Malappuram district into two. More districts like Ernakulam, Idukki, and Kasaragod, which have considerable Muslim populations, are likely to face bifurcation in the future. Muslims account for nearly 30 percent of Kerala’s population, and demographic experts have warned that the rise of Islamists in the state is disproportionate to the present population level.
In his first press meet after being sworn in as Chief Minister, Satheesan expressed displeasure over the rendering of “Vande Mataram”, the national song, during the oath-taking ceremony. “It was at the directive of Lok Bhavan (formerly Raj Bhavan) that Vande Mataram was sung in full. I was not aware of this move,” said Satheesan when reporters questioned him about the issue.
The allocation of aided schools and colleges to various communities will be watched with interest in the months to come. Vellappally Natesan, general secretary of the SNDP representing the powerful Ezhava community, has repeatedly stated that only Muslims are issued licences to run aided schools in the state, while pleas from other communities are overlooked. The Education Department has remained the forte of the Muslim League ever since it came to power in 1960.
The 2026 election results and the formation of the UDF government send out a clear message. Kerala has become an Islamic state, and Hindus are no longer safe here.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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