With Pelosi gone, China circles Taiwan
Post Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island nation of Taiwan (ROC), the military exercises by the PLA in the Taiwan straits don’t look less than preparation for war. Apart from live firing, on the 4th of August, 11 ballistic missiles of the DF series were fired across Taiwan and a couple of them landed in Japan’s EEZ (an area contacted by CCP i.e., the Chinese Communist Party).
49 PLA aircraft (J-10*7, J-11*6, J-16*10, SU-30*24, Y-8 EW, and Y-8 ASW ) flew on the east part of the median line of the Taiwan Strait on August 5, 2022. The website of Taiwan’s MOD was down the last time I checked, probably it was hacked by Chinese hackers. August 6 and 7 were even worse.
But the bigger question is will China go for a war right now (for sure in long term)? Well, any geopolitical analyst who says anything with certainty is either bluffing or is a part of Xi’s cabal. The exact answer lies with Xi Jinping, who has to face the 20th national congress at year-end, which will put a seal on his unpresidential third-term presidency. Already Chinese economy and banks are in a mess, the real estate bubble has burst and there is resentment among the masses vis a vis President Xi’s Zero COVID policy, crackdowns, etc, and the Shanghai gang i.e., the Jiang Zemin’s fraction (who is considered anti-Xi) is in action (that was the reason behind the crackdown on big tech as most of these belong to Jiang Zemin’s loyalists).
Loss of face is a big issue around the world, but in Chinese culture, it is even bigger, hence if there is a loss of face for president Xi, which may cost him his most darling third term, he may divert attention from domestic issues and may ignite hyper-nationalism by attacking and annexing Taiwan. With this move, he may kill two birds with one stone.
- All attention on bad Covid management, financial crisis, and opposing voices within the CCP will be sidelined.
- President Xi will become equal to Mao in stature, as a merger of Taiwan with mainland China was a mission of Mao and every president after him, but none was able to accomplish it.
Was Nancy Pelosi’s visit correct?
While the US follows the ‘One China’ policy, it doesn’t ascribe to the One China principle. Two US lawmakers have also introduced legislation in the House of Representatives calling for the US to resume formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and end the outdated and counter-productive “One China” policy. But legal stuff aside, there is something called morality. Taiwan is the eighth-strongest democracy in the world, it has all parameters of individual freedoms and human rights and dignity, hence standing with Taiwan is standing with principals against an autocratic bully, with no respect for the individual or collective rights and freedoms. Hence Ms. Pelosi was right in visiting and standing with Taiwan, plus China can’t and shouldn’t dictate the freedom of movement of citizens of other countries.
How should the US prepare Taiwan to face China?
War is inevitable, the question is when? Taiwan is preparing for a Chinese invasion for 7 decades, hence it won’t be a short war and also not an easy one for China. There will be even more resistance than Ukraine because Ukraine’s preparation was not even a decade old compared to 7 decades of Taiwan, also Taiwan has got a good amount of modern American arms in its arsenal. But there are some major flaws in the equipment being supplied to Taiwan, for example, Taiwan has a huge fleet of F-16s, but the F-16s need a longer runway for take-off and landings, the first thing China will do when a war starts, is damaging the runways, hence Taiwan must be supplied with planes like F-22s or F-35s requiring minimum runway or which can take off and land vertically.
Any attack on Taiwan will be an amphibian attack, hence Taiwan should be supplied with long-range, modern, mobile artillery, so to secure its beaches.
America must provide them with technology to combat the Chinese electromagnetic spectrum and communication disruption warfare.
Taiwan must be armed with nuclear-powered submarines (like the ones, the US & UK are providing Australia) in sufficient numbers, so to guard the Taiwan straits and also as a warning to the PLA-N (Chinese Navy).
Last but not least the US administration must stop the policy of ambiguity and come up with a clear policy with a loud message.
And if we (democracies) fail, the communist cabal will rule the world order.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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- China “fully loaded” on Taiwan - August 8, 2022
