Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat: ‘Do or die’ battle for Mehbooba Mufti

A tough political battle awaits Mehbooba Mufti

Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister and chief of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Mehbooba Mufti, contesting from the South Kashmir parliamentary constituency of Anantnag-Rajouri, is facing one of the toughest battles of her political career.

On one hand, Mehbooba is attempting to shore up the image of her party and on the other hand, she is aiming to strengthen the election machinery ahead of the crucial Assembly polls later this year. Her party suffered badly post-abrogation of Article 370 as several senior party leaders decided to jump ship in search of greener pastures.

In the poll arena, Mehbooba is pitted against one of the tallest Gujjar leaders Mian Altaf Ahmad of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference.

Mian Altaf is a five-time MLA from Kangan and belongs to the politico-religious family of central Kashmir’s Ganderbal district. His great grandfather Mian Abdullah Larvi, was a saint with influence on both Gujjar and Pahari communities.

Initially, she wanted to contest the seat as one of the joint candidates of the I.N.D.I. Alliance. Before the seat-sharing talks could begin the top brass of the National Conference ditched her as they decided to contest all three seats of Kashmir Valley without considering her name for one of the South Kashmir seats.

Accepting the challenge Mehbooba Mufti finally decided to contest the seat and threw her hat in the poll arena. In all her media interactions she maintained the decision to field PDP candidates on three Lok Sabha seats was taken after the National Conference leadership, one of the main constituents of the I.N.D.I.A bloc unilaterally decided to contest all three Lok Sabha seats.

Chairman DPAP Ghulam Nabi Azad decided to stay away after announcing his candidature

The high-profile seat was initially set for a clash of titans as Ghulam Nabi Azad, Chairman of the Democratic Progressive Azad Party had also thrown his hat in the poll arena but he too decided to quit the poll arena even before filing the nomination form. In his place, the party decided to field Advocate Mohd Saleem Parray, a member of the District Development Council in Anantnag, to give a tough fight to the National Conference candidate Mian Altaf Ahmad and PDP Chief Mehbooba Mufti.

Another interesting dimension to the poll prospects of these candidates was altered after the ruling Bharatiya Janta Party decided to stay away from the poll arena and decided to support the candidature of Jammu and Kashmir APNI party candidate Zaffar Iqbal Manhas, a local Pahari leader who served as a civil servant for over three decades in J&K.

Issues raised during the campaigning

The Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency witnessed a month-long high-pitch campaign. The key rival candidates are locked in a triangular contest. While the National Conference is trying to retain the seat, PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti is aiming for a hat-trick in a constituency she represented in 2004 and 2014.

The surprise entry of JKAPNI party candidate Zaffar Iqbal Manhas has also made it an interesting contest. The J&K Apni Party is being officially supported by the BJP which is not contesting any of the three Lok Sabha seats in the valley.

Manhas, a former government servant and himself a Pahari, is largely banking on the support of the Pahari community.

After the BJP-led Union government passed legislation granting Scheduled Tribe status to the Pahari tribe and others, the Pahari leadership gave an assurance to support the party in the coming Lok Sabha polls.

The crucial decision, however, alienated J&K’s Gujjar-Bakarwal community despite the assurances from no less a person than Home Minister Amit Shah himself that it will not dilute the reservation rights they have been enjoying since 1991 when they were granted ST status along with most of the Ladakhi ethnic groups.

PDP president Mehbooba Mufti is trying to give a tough fight to Mian Altaf Ahmad both in the Kashmir Valley and Pir Panjal region.

In recent weeks, Mehbooba toured extensively in the Pir Panjal region to woo the Gujjar-Bakarwal community. She delivered a crisp message to the members of the Gujjar community that she always supported their rights on forest land and opposed all attempts made to evict them from their traditional habitat post-August 2019.

Despite her spirited efforts, Mehbooba may not win the majority votes as Mian Altaf Ahmad enjoys the upper hand. Omar Abdullah and Dr Farooq Abdullah have also addressed a series of public rallies in support of Mian Altaf Ahmad seeking votes from their supporters in the region.

According to poll pundits, if Mehbooba Mufti manages to secure majority votes from the South Kashmir assembly seats then she can give a tough fight to the NC candidate and may register a victory.

To earn extra sympathy votes in her party’s strong bastion Mehbboba has deployed her daughter Iltija Mufti to campaign. Iltija instantly struck a chord with the first-time and Gujjar bakerwal voters. She chooses to speak their language which enables her to send a direct message to them.

Frontier districts of Rajouri and Poonch can tilt the balance

Post Delimitation exercise the twin border districts of Rajouri and Poonch can tilt the balance in favour of the winning candidate.

Out of eight Assembly segments, seven fall in the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat. Both Congress and the National Conference enjoy the support of the electorate in the region.

On the other hand, the BJP is eyeing the support of the Paharis and Gujjar, Bakerwals after it fulfilled its promise of granting scheduled tribe status to the Pahari ethnic group.

The National Conference candidate Mian Altaf Ahmed also enjoys the support of Paharis and Gujjars in the region.

Elections were rescheduled due to inclement weather conditions

The Election Commission of India had to revise the polling in the Anantnag-Rajouri Parliamentary Constituency from May 7 to May 25 in the wake of inclement weather conditions in the region.

According to a press statement issued by the office of the Election Commission of India, “the commission, after considering a report from the UT administration as well as analyzing the ground situation prevailing in the said constituency, had decided under Section 56 of Representation of People Act, 1951, to revise the date of the poll in the said Parliamentary constituency in respect of ongoing General Election to Lok Sabha, 2024 from May 7 (third phase) to May 25 (sixth phase)”.

The ECI had earlier sought a report on weather conditions, accessibility, and other factors, etc in the Anantnag constituency from the UT administration.

Various political parties and three contesting candidates had submitted representations seeking rescheduling of the election due to adverse weather conditions including snowfall on Mughal Road and Pir Ki Gali.

Two former Chief Ministers of Jammu and Kashmir Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti had appealed to the Election Commission of India against deferring polls on the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat.

Poll Arithmetic

According to official sources, a total of 18,16,371 voters comprising 9,23,434 men and 8,92,910 women are expected to exercise their right to vote on the Anantnag-Rajouri Parliamentary seat.

Out of them, as many as 7,29,830 voters are distributed across seven Assembly segments of Rajouri and Poonch districts, while the remaining 10,86,541 voters are in eleven constituencies of three districts—Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag of South Kashmir.

Approximately 60 percent of the total 7,29,830 voters in Rajouri and Poonch districts belong to the Pahari community while the remaining 40 percent are Gujjar and Bakerwal community votes.

The votes of the Pahari community are expected to tilt the balance of power in the favour of the winning candidate.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

For all the latest updates, download PGurus App.