Opinion

Are Gold assets moving to China, India, UAE?

Global gold flows are reversing, with bullion moving from the US and UK to Switzerland and Asia, driven by arbitrage, refining needs and rising demand

Team PGurus

February 17, 2026

A massive bullion reshuffle is underway — from Western vaults to Asian markets

After a US-bound arbitrage rush in early 2025, gold is now moving from Western vaults to Asia

Gold assets moved from the UK into the US. But in the last few months of 2025 and now, Gold is rumored to be moving to Switzerland and from there, to China, India among others.

Is this true?

Yes. The global gold market has undergone two distinct phases of movement in the last 12–14 months:

• Phase 1 (Early-Mid 2025): The “West-to-West” Arbitrage. Massive amounts of gold (estimated over 400 tonnes) moved from London (UK) to New York (US).

• Phase 2 (Late 2025 – Present): The “West-to-East” Pivot. The flow reversed. Gold is now leaving Western vaults (both UK and US), heading to Switzerland for refining, and then moving to China and India.

Why is this happening?

1. Phase 1 Cause (Arbitrage & Tariffs): In 2025, fears of US tariffs and a disconnect between London spot prices and US futures prices (COMEX) created a massive “arbitrage” opportunity. Banks could buy gold cheaper in London and sell it for a higher price in New York, provided they physically shipped the metal to back the futures contracts.

2. Phase 2 Cause (The Asian Premium):

The Swiss “Refining” Stopover: Western banks trade 400oz bars. Asian markets (Shanghai Gold Exchange) require smaller, higher purity 1kg bars. Gold must go to Switzerland first to be melted down and recast before heading East.
De-Dollarization: The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and other BRICS nations are aggressively swapping US Treasuries for physical gold.
Indian Demand: Despite high prices, Indian demand (for weddings and wealth storage) has surged in early 2026, widening their trade deficit.

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