Jammu outpaces Kashmir in voter turnout
The three-phase Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) took place on September 18 and 20 and October 1 in a peaceful environment. There are 47 constituencies in Kashmir and 43 in Jammu. Overall, 63.88 percent voter turnout was recorded at 90 polling stations, as against 58.58 percent in the general elections 2024. The voter turnout in Jammu province was far higher as compared to Kashmir. And, it was expected. The Election Commission announced the results on October 8.
Total polarization
The election results clearly suggested that there was total polarization in Jammu province and counter-polarization in Kashmir. This can be seen from the fact that the Hindus of Jammu decimated the Congress, the People’s Democratic Party, and other marginal outfits as well as cut the National Conference to its size and voted overwhelmingly for the BJP. The story of the otherwise fragmented Kashmir was no different. The Muslims decimated the J&K Apni Party of Altaf Bukhari, the People’s Conference of Sajad Lone, and the Awami Ittehad Party of Er Rashid and rejected outright the Independent candidates and voted en-block for the National Conference-the Congress-CPIM. They didn’t divide their votes. The short point is that the BJP swept Jammu and the National Conference swept Kashmir, thus establishing that Jammu province and Kashmir are poles apart and that there exists between the two irreconcilable contradictions.
Composition of Assembly
The new Assembly would be a 95-member House. It would include 90 elected members, including nine ST and seven SC MLAs, and five nominated by the Lieutenant Governor. The nominated members, like the elected members, will have voting rights. In other words, the I.N.D.I. Alliance constituents — the National Conference, the Congress, and the CPIM – will need a minimum of 48 MLAs to form a government. They have a magic figure. They have 49 members.
The Kashmir-based National Conference, a votary of limited accession, will have 42 members (35 from Kashmir and 7 from Jammu) in the House. The Congress which, like the National Conference, is also the mother of all ills, will have six members (five from Kashmir and one from Jammu). The CPIM will be represented in the House by a single MLA (also from Kashmir). 47 of the 49 members of the I.N.D.I. Alliance are Muslims (38 from Kashmir and five from Jammu) and two are Hindus. Both hail from Jammu and both defeated the BJP candidates, including Jammu and Kashmir BJP chief and former MLA.
The National Conference got 23.43 percent votes and it is number two in terms of vote share. The Congress’s vote share is 11.97 percent and the CPIM’s vote share is 0.59 percent.
The People’s Democratic Party will have only three members in the House—all from Kashmir and all Muslims. The party’s vote share is 8.87 percent. There will also be three independent MLAs from Kashmir in the House, again all Muslims.
The BJP will have 29 MLAs in the House, 28 Hindus and one Brahmin Sikh. The BJP has emerged as the single-largest party in terms of votes. Its vote share is 25.64 percent, which is over two percent more than the National Conference. Jammu has elected six independent candidates as well. Three are Muslims and three are Hindus.
To be more precise, the number of Hindu members in the House – apart from a Sikh MLA — will be 33. In other words, the number of non-Muslim members will be 34, as against 56 Muslim MLAs. There are reasons to believe that five members, who the Lieutenant Governor will nominate as per the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act of 2019, will also be Hindus — two women, two internally displaced Kashmiris, including one woman, and one displaced person from PoJK. And, when it happens, the number of non-Muslims in the House will be 39. And, it will happen for the first time that the non-Muslim members will be there in strength in the J&K Legislative Assembly.
Hindu representation in the ministry
The total number of ministers, including the chief minister, will be nine as only 10 percent of MLAs could become part of the ministry. It is clear that the Congress would be included in the ministry and the would-be-Congress-minister will surely be from Kashmir as all the five Congress MLAs from the Valley are heavyweights. The National Conference would also accommodate one or two of its five Jammu-based Muslim MLAs in the ministry. Then, it has to give berths in the ministry to its MLAs from Kashmir. Their number could be three to four.
What about the National Conference’s two Jammu-based Hindu MLAs, one each from Nowshehra and Ramban? Will the National Conference induct both of them into the ministry? It appears it will not. It will induct only one of the two.
What does all this suggest? It suggests that the new council of ministers will be over 90 percent Muslim and it will happen for the first time after 1951. This will be the nature and composition of the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly and it is frightening and dangerous by any yardstick.
Statehood to Jammu imperative
The situation as it exists today in Jammu and Kashmir demands the separation of Jammu from Kashmir so that this strategic region becomes strong and fully empowered. Even former President R Venkataraman had asked Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to grant statehood to Jammu, Union Territory status to Ladakh, and deal with Kashmir separately (Venkataraman, R., My Presidential Years). Even the grant of full state status to Jammu province would not be enough, though imperative. Kashmir also has to be converted into a Chandigarh-type Union Territory so that this disturbed region remains permanently under the Union Home Ministry. Kashmir just can’t be allowed to enjoy the state status; Kashmiri Muslim leadership just can’t be allowed to control Home, Finance, Law, Revenue and Forest Departments and the office of Advocate General.
It’s hoped that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah will further accelerate the process of reforms to protect and promote further the paramount national interests in this sensitive frontier region.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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- Open letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi – No to State Status and Darbar Move in J&K - November 12, 2024
- Why must Jammu be separated from Kashmir? - November 9, 2024
- Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir: An over 90% Muslim ministry in the offing - October 10, 2024
National Conference (NC) is committed to restoration of Article 370, annexing Kashmir to Porkistan, independence from India, unlimited & unrestricted funds from India to sustain & build Kashmir country.