IMF projects India and China to contribute nearly half of global growth
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has weighed in on shifting global economic dynamics after fresh data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed India and China emerging as the largest contributors to global real GDP growth in 2026.
“The balance of power is changing,” Musk wrote on X, reacting to a graphic ranking the world’s top contributors to global economic growth.
According to IMF projections, China is expected to contribute 26.6 per cent to global real GDP growth in 2026, while India will account for 17 per cent. Together, the two Asian economies are projected to drive 43.6 per cent of global growth, underlining the rising dominance of the Asia-Pacific region, which is expected to generate nearly half of worldwide economic expansion.
The United States ranks third, contributing 9.9 per cent to global growth. Other emerging economies on the list include Indonesia (3.8 per cent), Türkiye (2.2 per cent), Nigeria (1.5 per cent) and Brazil (1.5 per cent).
Germany sits at the bottom of the top-10 list with a 0.9 per cent share.
Musk’s comment carries added significance given his recent engagement with India and China. The billionaire entrepreneur has closely tracked India’s economic trajectory and has met Prime Minister Narendra Modi twice in recent times, fuelling speculation about deeper business ties.
The data reinforces a growing consensus among global policymakers that economic momentum is steadily shifting from the West toward Asia and parts of the Global South.
In its January 2026 Global Economic Outlook, the IMF projected global growth at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, both figures revised slightly upward from its October 2025 estimates.
The Fund attributed the outlook to continued technology investment, fiscal and monetary support, accommodative financial conditions, and adaptability within the private sector, even as trade policy uncertainties persist.
The IMF also forecast a decline in global inflation, noting that US inflation is expected to return to target more gradually.
However, it flagged multiple downside risks, including a potential reassessment of technology-driven growth expectations and an escalation of geopolitical tensions.
“Trade tensions could flare up, prolonging uncertainty and weighing more heavily on economic activity,” the IMF warned.
The report further cautioned that rising fiscal deficits and high public debt levels could push up long-term interest rates, tightening financial conditions globally and increasing pressure on emerging and developed economies alike.
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