Sree Iyer: Namaskar Welcome to Daily Global Insights with Sri and Sree. Today is July 7th, Wednesday and this is episode 198. As always, we start with global news, Sridharji, bitter infighting between Cartels, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the Saudis and Russians over the production limits, that could push the oil prices past $100 a barrel price. The UAE may quit OPEC and pursue its own course. It could also produce the opposite effect. Now if only the US had to continue doing shell production, it would have been a good safety valve. This is my opinion, sir, I don’t know what you think.
Sridhar Chityala: Good morning to everybody on bright Wednesday, July 7th morning from New York. This is one of the most significant developments because this has economic consequences, which is namely the oil prices. Obviously, there was a step down during the pandemic. Now they are trying to step up the production. Saudi is all for graceful, step-up of the production, the Russian said no, no, no, we need to manage this, the UAE says, yes I agree with you Saudi Arabia, we need to step up. By the way, you need to increase my quota, because I’m right at the bottom of the Barrel. So if you don’t increase it, then I made pursue my own course and choose my destiny. So this is the tripartite discussions and dialogue so which is going to have prices by in one way or the other way. But right now the prices are going up. With you get your specific question the energy Independence, which was achieved during the Trump period, is now out of the window and the United States is very much left in the gyrations of the world things. And we are already pretty close to four dollars a barrel at the park.
Sree Iyer: The United States will step up its game in South East Asia, says Kurt Campbell, Head of Indo Pacific Policy coordinator. China floats African QUAD with Germany and France, in an online summit with EU leaders driving a wedge between the Trans-Atlantic Partners. Israel to send South Korea 700,000 doses of Pfizer Vaccine. Indonesia to ban entry to unvaccinated Foreigners as COVID 19 Cases rise. Malaysia and Thailand also under lockdown.
So now what we are seeing sir is that this third wave or the Delta is beginning to start making its presence felt in other countries also. China tried this Card trick of trying to make it look like it was an India variant that did not work. I am happy to state that we were some of the loudest voices, saying, how wrong that was? In fact, we’ve even gone further to say that this too came from the labs of Wuhan. Sir, your thoughts, how is this spreading now, when there was a complete lockdown out of India, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: Well, it’s quite amazing that the people in Asia, by and large, assumed that there was normalcy being restored as they battle wave one and wave two. Now they all had vaccine shortages and most of these countries were on Sinovac vaccines. Now, everybody is realizing the efficacy of this vaccine are very small and so, therefore, this a consequent effect that is going on in some of the countries, including Indonesia, Thailand etc. But, having said that, the variant must have come to the tourist destinations or could have come even from other places but the fact is that they seem to have the Delta variant. And, we now have spurting cases in Indonesia, we have a spurt in cases in Thailand and Malaysia. And China itself has conceded that the Lambda variant, as well as the Delta variant, has got a very fast mechanism to spread which they themselves are facing in South and Southeast China so it’s very very sad. They are trying to put a tag on India. Now they’re trying to put a tag into the United States saying it originated from the labs in Maryland.
Sree Iyer: Facebook, Twitter, Google object new data laws in Hong Kong, and threatening to quit. Six students among nine, arrested in alleged Hong Kong Bomb Plot, as tensions rise.
China to put overseas-listed companies on a very short leash. So now we are seeing DIDI, which is one of the examples of what China is up to. Why do you think they’re doing this, sir? And do you think that the social media companies will really quit Hong Kong?
Sridhar Chityala: The first and foremost is this didn’t start right now. They started with Mr Jack Ma if you remember his company that’s where this effectively to say, hey, you cannot all because of the fears and apprehensions of the pain that they themselves inflicted and the power of money that went into social media and Tech platforms during the presidential campaigns to a considerable extent. Some of the money came from different wings of the CCP, and that is within public information in terms of the marketing money that was put in and they have invested a significant amount. So, now they say, oh my God, this can become a monster and come and hurt us in our own way. So, the story, therefore, is for we need to contain, so that is what is going on with regard to the monitoring. Then, they came up and said, Ant financial and so on, you need to be monitored and regulated by us plus how you conduct your business. So, now they are going, not just on financial, but they are extending their surveillance compliance and regulation across all companies and more in companies listed outside of China. So this is the tight leash or the tight control on the short leash. And that’s when you saw the backlash among the DIDI stock price, and DIDI stock price, continuing to take, take a hit. As far as whether these social media platforms would quit? Social media platforms would quit if there is a draconian measure that is applied in Hong Kong as is being done to the general democratic processes within the country.
Sree Iyer: The United Kingdom’s semi-conductor plant acquired by Chinese owned company. The UK may have to come up with curbs. Well the UK is not exactly a shining example of the semiconductor processing industry. So I’m going to differ on that one. A New Drone attack on the US embassy in the Iraqi Capital of Bagdad was intercepted and brought down, in a spate of attacks focused on US targets in Iraq and Syria. Iraq witnessed attacks on its Electrical Infrastructure when ISIS Groups attacked Electrical Towers to disrupt the power supply and up to 44 to 48 towers attacked. All towers now restored.
The United States repels attacks on its Al-Asad base from Iran sponsored Militias. Two rounds of rockets were fired on the same day by Iran backed Militia. Looking at them all together on one side Iran is talking to the US about lifting sanctions, on the other side, it is doing all this mischief. What is one to make of all this, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: It is very clear that there is no leadership in the United States, first and foremost there’s no, leadership. Number two, they seem to have a lot more information than they probably had before and which is one of the reasons why there is no let-up, be it drones, be it other forms of attacks, the attacks on the infrastructure in these countries, you can see it’s very coordinated from Militias to Guerrilla’s to sponsored people to now ISIS getting into the thick of the action. It is a reflection that there is no leadership here, it is all and sundry, it’s it doesn’t all go well, in that specific region, I had mentioned that three I’s Israel, Iraq, Iran intersection is going to be a problematic area. That is one of the reasons why we are covering quite extensive, what’s happening there.
Sree Iyer: And now, let’s take a look at Indian news, Modi sends a birthday greeting to Dalai Lama in a clear sign of message to Xi Jinping and Tibetan Activists applaud. Indo-pacific represents a return of history MEA Dr S Jaishankar in the first inaugural Business summit organized by Confederation of India Industry and MEA. 12 National representatives from Australia, Japan, Chile, France, Mexico, Maldives, Fiji, Mauritius, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and UAE attended the session. I think this was online. Sir, your thoughts on these two points and then we can go on to the other things.
Sridhar Chityala: I think Modi is sending a clear message the Tibetans are engaged and active and Dalai Lama was seen acknowledging and thanking the people around the world more specific in India and the Modi’s message is to say, you know, we believe in Tibet, we believe in independent Dalai Lama and we respect and support him. It’s a very clear and brave message.
As far as the Indo-pacific business summit is concerned, you can slowly begin to see the unbundling and how India and certain countries in the region taking leadership and moving the agenda forward. This is very important, when you look at the composition of countries in the Indo-Pacific, you have Mexico and Chile from this part of the world, then, you have the Maldives from the Indian Ocean. Then, you have Fiji, Australia and then you have Australia taking the lead and UAE anything from the gulf and Singapore from ASEAN. Basically saying, you know, we’re going to coordinate work together in a business construct. The captive population of these countries together is quite a big number so it’s back to business. We are moving forward irrespective of, whether there is a Quad or no Quad.
Sree Iyer: I’m very pleased to say that of 100s of unasked for advice that I and PGurus used to dispense to the Indian government, there are actually picking up on some of those things. This is one of those things I had said and Sridharji also had mentioned that Dalai Lama is a very useful, political tool that India is not using. I’ve been saying this for a couple of years, now. I’m glad that Modiji picked up the phone and spoke with the Dalai Lama, very good things, very nice things are going to happen. In fact, the other thing that I’ve been pushing for a long time was that Israel is India’s all-weather friend. If you have the compulsion that you cannot vote for Israel, at least abstain and India did just that. So viewers, the point I’m trying to make is as we gallop towards our 200th episode, we are the tip of the spear, you will see start seeing even more changes coming down the pipeline that will prove our point. We do take a lot of diligence and effort in coming up with accurate news.
Just watch what is going to happen in the United States. In signs of the expansive reach and flexibility in sourcing India receives the first shipment of 1 million barrels of
Liza Light Sweet crude oil from Guyana. India denied reports of closing embassies and consulates in Afghanistan. They are still open. India sends coal to Bangladesh as part of securing Energy Security in the region. Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina Wazed has sent 2600 kilograms of mangoes to PM and CM of West Bengal as part of mango diplomacy. I’m sure a few will arrive at your doorstep, sir. Let me know how those taste. Thank you.
Sridhar Chityala: Thank you. Well, I think first and foremost, the most important point to make here is consistent with the Indian policy of reach, which is reached to meet its requirements. This is great news in terms of the partnership with Guyana and receiving the first 1 million barrels of crude. Liza is the port. So, therefore, Liza Light Sweet Crude Oil from Guyana. It is a great thing. So you will begin to see India move, it is the second-largest importer in the world move its flexibility in terms of sourcing part of it.
As far as Afghanistan is concerned, a lot of rumours flying around. Security is a big issue in Afghanistan. It very clear, the Taliban is taking over several areas, but the fact is that India has a footprint.
As far as Bangladesh is concerned, the coal diplomacy, wherein India sent coal by train across to Bangladesh to meet the requirements of the new coal plant that is coming up. Yes, the green people will say here is an example of another coal plant but at the same time, Bangladesh cannot be… It is a fairly densely populated country it cannot be without power. So there is a very good reciprocal gesture by the Bangladeshi PM by sending mangoes.
Sure, sir, when I get some, at least I will make sure and send a few across to the other side of the United States, I’m sure you’ll enjoy it.
Sree Iyer: Manipur joins National Rail Network with the completion of the first trial run of the Rajdhani Express from Silchar in Assam to Wang Kai Chupao in Tamenglong in Manipur. Varanasi Mangoes, vegetables and black rice export zoom amid covid pandemic. India will be acquiring 10 anti-drone systems to combat drone attacks from across the border. So looked at it together, India’s exports are enjoying the resurgence that is good to know. Your thoughts as India tries to also expand the productivity of the states of UP, Bihar, and the Northeast.
Sridhar Chityala: It’s quite remarkable. The reason why the Varanasi aspect has been picked up UP has lagged behind in a number of areas. Today UP is leaning equally on the opposite side on a number of areas where it is one of the most attractive destinations for investments. Samsung is locating one of its large manufacturing units in UP. The food exports and the food processing industry is also taking a foothold in Uttar Pradesh. So it’s very positive news. On the mangoes, vegetables, and black rice etc to say that the products that we make are not only consumed but also is being sent across earning the valuable amount of money. Remember, the farmer reform story. The farmer reform story will come back and talk about it how this is very impactful within the context of why those reforms are relevant in terms of enhancing the livelihood of the farmers.
Sree Iyer: Let’s take a look at United States news. Biden’s 6 trillion budget cut would cut the GDP but would reduce the debt over the long term per Wharton Study. I guess he’s going to try and make up some of that with taxes. Supermarkets are stockpiling inventory with rising food costs driven by supplies, labour shortages, and transportation. The far-left blatantly admits hatred of America on July 4th explosion of messages say, critics. The US soccer team denies that its women’s team disrespected the World War II veteran before the send-off match. 150 people killed, more than 400 shootings across the nation as violent crimes rise on the national holiday weekend. This is something that we’ve been predicting for a long time, haven’t we, Sridharji?
Sridhar Chityala: Yes, we have been predicting that the crimes are going to increase quite dramatically especially as part of the deepened police movement and there has been a number of agitating groups relentlessly marching across in various cities across the country be its the west coast, be it midwest or be it east coast. You have now witnessed various marches going back to the mid-2020 and making their way.
In new york city, this was the subject of big debate, the mayoral debate and Eric Adams, who is going to contest on a democratic ticket has made it very clear, he’s an ex-policeman. All these things are great but we cannot afford to have complete mismanagement of law and order in the city, more specifically we had four deaths just about a few days ago including a young child. So not acceptable especially in public places but this was predictive.
Sree Iyer: Here is one more news item that we had predicted and we had said so. Only just over 36% of 2022 election voters believe that Biden is in charge, that is only one in three. Over 50%, one in two believe that others are directing his agenda per a Trafalgar group poll. Over 50% of voters believe that Biden has no ability to bring down the surging crimes in the United States per a Hill Harris PO. Remember viewers, we had told you about what is happening in the city of San Francisco, the big superstores are all shutting down early. They are expressing helplessness because the police is not willing to act. Sir, you are being proved right again and again, over and over. So this is another reason why friends and family of all the viewers should be also watching DGI so you can be aware of what is happening around you. Sir, your thoughts.
Sridhar Chityala: Well, there are three important elements here where the data is not auguring well for Mr Biden. First and foremost is the crime. They don’t believe that he is going to be in any position to contain the crime that is getting out of control across the United States. The rise in homicides is an example.
Number two, they don’t believe that he is in charge. That’s even more striking. Somebody else is running Biden’s agenda. Biden is not in charge. In DGI, we have tried to bring this out in a subtle way that there are a number of instances that brings to bear the question, including some of his press briefings, the way the press briefings have moved on.
The third which is just breaking news is now there is a very clear poll indicated that he is not also going to be able to control the surge in the border and the illegal immigrants flowing across the country and the consequences that flow with it. So I don’t believe that. So these three numbers point out that there is something not good for Mr Biden.
Sree Iyer: Now, let’s take a look at the markets. The Standard and Poor snaps a seven-day winning streak as a Dow falls 200 points. OPEC dispute spills into oil markets as the oil price looks like it might shoot up to 100 and beyond. Sir, where do you see this oil fracas ending? Is the United States going to turn back shale processing again? After all the US is the capitalistic king of the world and I’m sure a lot of shale producing companies are knocking on the doors of Democrats and saying ‘hey, listen, if we can’t make money now we can never make money. Let us back in.’ What are your thoughts, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: My thoughts are that the United States is now being run by progressives and left. It’s not run by the Centrist Democrats. So, therefore, you’re beginning to see oil prices surging towards the $100 mark. The only event that can change this course which is not likely at least in the present moment is the lifting of the productions. So if OPEC says we don’t care or OPEC plus says we don’t care and Saudi and UAE say we’re going to lift the production then they can saturate the market with excess oil which will bring the prices down. The highly unlikely but very potential scenario could mean well for the country.
I just wanted to conclude with two points. One is, there is a door-to-door vaccination attempt that Biden is trying to do. It’s not being very well received because they’re questioning the agenda. Number two, I also want to point out to people especially those in the United States, the food prices are going to surge in the next 12 months. I keep telling my wife that yes the food prices are going to surge. We have had a tremendous increase in food prices. Why? The reasons are very simple. There is a whole problem around supply and logistics and there is a considerable amount of storage that is going on. One is uncertain as to what’s going to happen as we look past the next 12 months. These are the messages that I just wanted to give that – manage your affairs as you think is appropriate. Remember, two things are not included in inflation – energy and food. So food is felt in the pocket but may not be seen in the rising inflation number.
Sree Iyer: That brings us to a close of today’s Daily Global Insights. I hope you liked our new format. We’ve been trying to keep the segment to be around 20 minutes and we’ll continue to strive to give you all the news in this short capsule format. Thanks for joining. Do subscribe to our channel. Sridharji, namaskar and I’ll see you tomorrow.
Sridhar Chityala: Namaskar. Thank you. Have a wonderful day. We’ll see you all tomorrow.
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