EP 200 | Daily Global Insights | Jul 9, 2021 | US News | India News | Global News | Markets

EP 200 | Daily Global Insights | Jul 9, 2021 | US News | India News | Global News | Markets

Sree Iyer: Namaskar, Today is July 9th, Friday, and Welcome to Daily Global Insights with Sri and Sree, Episode 200. Before we jump into today’s news, here is a short video of the journey thus far. . . . Sridharji, welcome to episode number 200.

Sridhar Chityala: Good morning to everybody and congratulations and thank you and we look forward to your continued support as we complete 200 and move on to the next phase so very excited to be part of this experience thus far, sir.

Sree Iyer: Sir, pleasure is all mine and in top stories today in global news, Japan bans Olympic spectators at Tokyo area venues to implement precautionary measures. Taiwan asks the US not to cause misunderstanding after the Flag Tweet Removed. Sir, a couple of days ago we saw a very interesting statement by Campbell was that a result of what is this flag tweet, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: It’s very simple that the White House tweeted in which they had indicated they have supplied over 40 million vaccines to a number of countries in the tweet was a list of flags of countries to whom the 40 million vaccines went included that were the Taiwanese flag. Lo and behold all of a sudden the flag disappeared, the belief is that there must have been subtle pressure coming from China, whatever is the rhetoric that Biden and his administration are dishing out. There seems to be some understanding between the Chinese and the present administration that is further amplified by Kurt Campbell’s statement which is again a little provocative which we covered yesterday and contrarian to what they have been saying all along namely that Taiwan should not be aspiring for independence and Taiwan independence is a very sensitive issue, this is coming from Kurt Campbell. While on the contrary Japan has been sending vaccines thousands and thousands of vaccines and stating very clearly that any red line crossed into Taiwan would be a red line as far as Japan is concerned and Japan will fight alongside the Taiwanese. So, it’s very unfortunate and Taiwan has said please do not create misunderstanding by engaging in such acts to the Biden administration.

Sree Iyer: So, let me understand this correctly the United States has a two China policy, isn’t it?

Sridhar Chityala: The United States has a two china policy and but it has never implemented be it in Tibet, be it in Hong Kong, not yet but maybe who knows in Taiwan. Hong Kong is very much gone is integrated, even the democratic laws have been draconian in terms of their withdrawal everything has been taken out and Biden remains a silent spectator. As far as Tibet is concerned there has been the Tibet independent program policy but that remains only in books. They probably spend a centre token of 1 billion or 1.8 billion to the Tibetan administration in exile, it is more India that is supporting Tibet rather than the US administration. I don’t even recall Biden even wishing Dalai Lama on his birthday, so, everything remains in the paper if I have to go by the precedence whether this invisible hand of Mr Obama is at work because Obama allowed, I mean I have steadfastly maintained and I have stated that Obama went to sleep when china began all its incursions including the Spratly islands in the South China Sea. So, what we are seeing here is that the same policy being re-enacted, I don’t know whether it’s Biden or some of the people under Biden given Biden’s own physical capabilities in terms of comprehending what is around him.

Sree Iyer: Sir, this calls into question the Chief of Staff of Biden, he’s the one who’s supposed to be maintaining discipline and order among all these warring feuds and factions that is typical for any White House. And it’s really, really strange why you know these administration flounders so much.

Partial Vaccinations not enough to fight the Delta Variants, study finds, as the Delta Virus Strains gain moment in Asia. Sir, Asia is now again in the news for the wrong reasons how do you think this is going to play out? I mean I think even in the United States the delta variant is rearing its ugly head isn’t it?

Sridhar Chityala: It is, the CDC reported that there is greater than 50% of cases reported in the United States is due to Delta variant in some states but there has not been vaccination the cases is as high as between 70% to 80%. It doesn’t look like it doesn’t matter to the general American public they’re turning a blind eye unless and until the crisis becomes a pandemic level type of a crisis. Yes, clearly there are problems in Asia, they have seen rising cases now right around on the back of lack of availability of vaccines. You remember, lack of availability of vaccines and the other thing that’s compounding the fact is some of these countries chose Sinovac and they find that the Sinovac is ineffective even those people who have been vaccinated are ineffective. So you are seeing Indonesia massive shutdown, Malaysia, Thailand. Now Japan is saying it’s just going to impose a major curfew and emergency around the Tokyo venues but also just have a very clear and cautious approach in monitoring. I think they’ve also got some major travel bans in place. How is this going to play out? You know nobody can predict how this is going to play out as far as this delta and other variants are concerned. So, we just have to go by what we see; I mean we are already talking about lambda, we looked at Delta. We are now talking about a lambda variant and we don’t know what the consequences of that lambda variant are.

Sree Iyer: Taliban fighters capture key Afghan Border crossing with Iran and Biden says Afghanistan is an unwinnable war. Afghan forces are engaged with the Taliban across a number of towns as security deteriorates. Iran has declared war on the US through its proxies as US forces are attacked both in Syria and Iraq on a daily basis. Russia led block to mobilize military Afghan border situation Worsens, Russians alert Tajikistan. So, the fact that the Taliban which used to be in the southeastern corner of Afghanistan have managed to go all the way across and capture a border crossing on the Iranian border tells you that the width that they have already covered.

Sridhar Chityala: I think the strategic planning has been at the forefront of the Taliban, they just have not taken this lying down for the past 20 years in exile or on the ground they have been planning this. So, they’re well organized well-orchestrated notwithstanding the fact that the Afghan forces are saying that they are willingly ready to combat the Taliban. Having said that they seem to have again diplomatic reach into Tehran, they have diplomatic reach into Qatar, they have diplomatic reach into Turkey, and they have diplomatic reach into Russia. So I think all these countries are also preparing themselves to see any kind of fallout that comes out of the potential civil war that’s happening. While this is going on there are rumours and reports that China is now eyeing its opportunity to step into the country both on the infrastructure and tap into the mining resources.

Sree Iyer Chinese Mining Project threatens Local Water Supply and locals say the Chinese are pushing forward despite local protests and objections. Russia deploys Hundreds of Military Personnel to the Central African Republic to help the Government Forces, fight the rebels. Where is this water problem, sir? Which part of the world?

Sridhar Chityala: The problem is in Zimbabwe it’s in western Zimbabwe the Hwange reserve which is considered as one of the largest national reserves of Zimbabwe,  it’s in the western Hwange district. It’s a big source of water supply, this mining is likely to pollute the water which will impact the tribes living around that part and the region. But the Chinese can care very little, I mean whenever China occupies any part of the world their total abuse for Human rights and Human values and the destruction of the natural ecosystem is profound, nobody needs any evidence all you can do is you need to look at what they have done in Tibet,  look at what they have done in some of the water systems in Southeast Asia flowing from there and including into India. So, now this is stepping into Africa and where they seem to want to take up significant positions basically to drill for their needs for you know coal and other types of resources now they’ve got a well-established port in Dar-el-salaam and they also have around Djibouti, they have built a huge infrastructure. so they’ve got all the stuff so they will carry two hoops and they will use their muscle and money and the tribes are raising objections yes nobody will do anything. Folks the reason why we continue to cover very extensively the flashpoints of the world in the global news is that we pointed out the Sahel region and you can see the imprint of China, Russia, the Islamic forces and the trouble that is kind that is brewing around which can all become simultaneous flashpoints as we get past the Covid situation.

Sree Iyer: Belarus Government Blocks Media Outlets, and Detains Reporters government. So, Belarus is used to be one of the satellites that formed what is called as USSR, isn’t it? So now they are going the same communist way?

Sridhar Chityala: They are, it is the regime is  Shevchenko’s regime is supported by the Russian  Vladimir Putin, so, therefore, it’s dictatorial, it’s one-party democracy and they will impose their will anyway. If you remember a couple of journalists who tried to board a flight, the flight was stopped and the journalist was de-boarded from the plane. So, the story is that this thing is continuing now they have put media outlets blockade as well as starting to detain reporters. So, very much as you rightly said going down the communist mode.

Sree Iyer: Let’s take a look at India news, External Affairs Minister Mr Jaishankar said that Russia & India relations is the steadiest since World War II and India looks forward to Hosting Vladimir Putin at the Bilateral Summit in New Delhi, later this year. PM Modi and President Putin have met 19 times since 2014, he further added. In China, the Minister stated that for 40 years China and India had a cordial relationship but in the past two years trouble has been brewing around the border, with no sign of letting up. I might as well add that Xi Jinping and Modi met 18 times thus far in the last few years.

India’s external affairs minister will be in Georgia for two days on July 9 and 10 on his way back from Russia. He will be meeting the Foreign Minister of Georgia. Sir, Russia perhaps Georgia and then even Afghanistan, Jaishankar is doing his best to try and see what can be done, in what I see as a losing call especially as far as controlling Afghanistan is concerned India built their parliament, India built a dam for them. I don’t know if these guys will care one hoot or the other for these things well.

Sridhar Chityala: First and foremost I think Russia has a strong endorsement and a sentiment which is we continue to stay engaged with all the people irrespective of the adversarial positions that they take. For example, Russia, notwithstanding the US, is still the number one armed supplier to India as far as India is concerned. Number two is Israel. So, therefore, he’s going and making a statement that, yes 19 times he has met. He probably has not met Biden ten times or five times. He may have met President Trump 19 times, therefore, there was an endorsement coming from that side of the fence. But right now, where is Biden and Mr Modi, there is only vice president Harris. So he’s endorsing the sentiment of Vladimir Putin and he’s inviting him, ‘look there’s a changing world situation, there’s a different regime, the geopolitics has changed, so we welcome you back in case you want to come. So I think that’s the point. But remember when he did that he also said that Mr Lavrov went to Pakistan on his way back. So he is going to Georgia, he has a very good relationship with Georgia. He is spending two days – today and tomorrow, July 9th and 10th in Georgia on his way back.

As far as your point around Afghanistan is concerned, they’re trying to make sure that they stay engaged in terms of protecting some of the assets and people and see how best that can be organized. I don’t think they can salvage the situation as far as Afghanistan is concerned. To that extent, you must give some credit to the Taliban which stated they never talked about the Kashmir issue and they will have boots on the ground participating in the local agitation. This is very clear from the Taliban to that extent you have to give credit which is to say, ‘we stay engaged with them unlike in the past where we didn’t have any conduit of communication.’ So that’s my interpretation, sir, in terms of all these visits. Yes, India has invested in Afghanistan but India has invested in many countries just like many other people have invested in many other countries. You have to take all this with a pinch of salt as geopolitics makes its way.

Sree Iyer: General Naravane arrives in Italy for a two-day visit following his UK trip. His focus will be on bilateral ties and strengthening the relationship. After the second world war. I have not really heard of Italian weaponry or prowess in terms of arms, sir. What is the significance of this visit? Can you throw some light on the significance of this visit?

Sridhar Chityala: Basically, there is some ceremonial linkage to the Italian army going back in time, so that’s number one. Number two is, they are also broadening the flexibility of relationships across the EU. This is a trip that follows the UK trip into Italy. India already has a pretty strong relationship with France, Germany, you know the situation. So, therefore, they are trying to extend their reach and meet as many people as possible within the context of friendship. There has been some controversy around the Italian sailors being locked up and being released. I don’t have the specific details around that. This is going back in time, so it’s also possibly ironing out some of those issues as far as the Italian trip is concerned. The fact that the Chief of the army is going is a reflection of its significance.

Sree Iyer: ‘Some have expertise in making viruses and some have expertise in making vaccines’, the new minister of state for external affairs Miss Lekhi fires her first salvo. In a rare development, the Indian envoy in Saudi Arabia and the OIC chief meet in Jeddah. What do you read into this? I think they haven’t met in a while.

Sridhar Chityala: Well, I think that there are two things. One is the Ministry for External Affairs has made a very clear statement which is, ‘Don’t interfere and don’t allow Pakistan, no he didn’t use the word Pakistan, don’t allow other players to come and use your platform and engage in abusive kind of tones and throw all kinds of allegations.’ So it’s probable that the OIC head decided,  ‘why don’t we meet?’ So the guy must have gone and met and given the same sermon around basically saying to stay away from India, we have very strong democratic principles here and don’t give a platform to rogue players. So that would be my understanding of this situation. Yes, they have not met for a long time but there has been ongoing dialogue and this is just another example of the dialogue that has occurred.

Sree Iyer: In US news, gas prices are up 40% since January and continue to climb. North Dakota sues Biden administration over the suspension of oil, gas lease sales. Biden calls for an end to tax breaks for oil companies as gas prices continue to rise. Taken together, are these a fallout of the stopping of the shale extraction, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: Indeed, not only stopping up the shale extraction but also cutting out all existing leases and licenses and also the new leases that were to be given out. They are stopping all of that and then imposing additional taxes. It’s like the butterfly effect. This morning, the breaking news is that we had a big rain in manhattan. There’re always flash floods here. One of the subways got flooded. So Madame Alexandria Cortez makes the statement that now she needs the money because this is all caused by climate accord. Well, we have a flat territory. We have flooding in many of the subway stations from time immemorial and but this is how the present administration is running its course which is effective to state that this is not good for the ecosystem, this is not good for the preservation of our environment, so let’s cut. What does it do? It jumps the prices up, shoots the prices up. Very bad decision. I think we have covered this enough in DGI, sir.

Sree Iyer: Remove Air Force teacher who teaches Critical Race Theory urge members of congress. I take it, these are the members of congress of the GOP. Conservative groups launch a campaign against college vaccine mandates. ‘It is absolutely government business to know who gets vaccinated’ says the health secretary. So I think the Biden Administration is beginning to turn the screws a little bit to make sure that everybody gets vaccinated. Your thoughts on the Critical Race Theory, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: I think Critical Race Theory is a political battle between the progressives, communists within the democratic administration versus the centrists and the right within the opposition ranks. Clearly, the parents have opposed it very stoutly. Why are they pushing this CRT into the school academic system? What purpose does it serve from an economic context begs a question? But it’s become a political hot potato and they basically want to control and engage. And the best way to do it is by changing the minds of the people right in the school. Remember, Mr George Soros was willing to put money into this specific project. He committed 10 out of the 15 million, he further committed that he would basically make sure that the people are educated. What they’re educated about begs the question? But if this is what it is then it is just going to be outrightly declined by many people.

Anyway, to come to your next question around the vaccines, there are many states where the kids, armed personnel and people have decided not to vaccinate. So there is a mandate that is being pushed by the Biden administration which states that if college kids have to come back to classes then they have to be vaccinated, if they’re not vaccinated they wouldn’t be allowed. This is what the GOP is fighting as far as the door-to-door vaccination is concerned. There is a fear, based on the 2020 elections that this is going to become a data-gathering exercise by the government as we step into the crucial 2022 midterm elections where there’s potential that the senate and the house, most notably the house could be regained by the Republicans or the GOP. So, therefore, they said we’re going to do a door-to-door campaign and the Republicans are up in arms basically saying it is not the government’s business and the health secretary says it is the government’s business to send people door-to-door and encourage them to be vaccinated.

Sree Iyer: Democratic lawmakers are trying to expand a proposed overhaul of policing laws. This is looking beyond punishing misconduct to dictate national standards for when officers can use force and when they can pull over drivers, etc. Calling for a fourth stimulus check is most irresponsible and unwarranted says professor Brenberg a. A little bit more about professor Brenberg, sir. Is he a Republican-leaning person or what is his backdrop on this?

Sridhar Chityala: So anyone who gives an opposition policy to the democratic policy has to be either centre or centre-right or right of right. Let’s be very clear. So Brenberg is a professor from here and he’s right-wing. He’s basically saying, ‘Already we are blown out, we got problems in the economy, we don’t have enough people to work, all are sitting and enjoying there and you want another stimulus check. That means nobody will come to work for the rest of the year. Nobody will come because everybody is getting the money.’ So that’s the statement. The reason why we’re bringing out this as a news item is basically because there is a talk that is going on that potentially the delta variant could cause a shutdown. The press core within the Biden Administration has made a statement that the White House will not be opposing the states that go in for lockdown. So if you go in for a lockdown or a shutdown as the case may be, then naturally you need to create a stimulus check. So it’s like a vicious circle. The country cannot afford to have another stimulus check and people sitting behind the doors while the economy wants jobs but nobody wants to work. So I think that’s the nomenclature as far as this particular discussion is concerned.

I don’t want to miss the previous point which is, they want to extend the policy reforms to the extent that from the federal they want to direct who can be stopped for a traffic offence and what should be the punishment. How do you deal with certain specific cases as it relates to homicide or other forms of violence? It’s almost like saying, ‘We will be telling how the police need to behave, but we are not accountable for any outcomes that are caused by these decisions.’ So in other words, if people suffer if there are consequences in terms of the rise in crime we are not responsible. We are only responsible for directing how the police need to behave. This is what happened in the different police movements. You are now seeing the rise in homicides across the country. I’ve never seen a democratic administration overstepped its reach and boundaries the way this present administration is doing effectively trying to shape the country the way they wanted to be led by the progressives and probably the deep communists in the regime. That’s how this administration looks. You have never seen this type of outrageous policies coming from even a Democratic-led administration. You can take Carter, you can take Clinton, they all have principles and policies in the way the economics and the social structure is maintained. But here, from elections to Critical Race Theory to policing to everything, the Biden progressives want to run the country.

Sree Iyer: Sir, every time you use the word progressive what is registering in my mind is regressive. But that’s just me.

The worker shortage is the biggest issue facing economic revival as the battle continues over staying home versus coming to work. Several states on the contrary are cutting income taxes to promote post-pandemic growth. So we have been over this now.

So let’s take a quick look at how things are evolving in the market. Markets stumbled as the fears of global economic recovery mount with rising cases of variants. The Dow Jones, S&P, NASDAQ all fell but today they are back up, aren’t they?

Sridhar Chityala: Today, the futures point to 250 points rise in at least the Dow. So, therefore, it will rebound. Yesterday’s bad news on the covid variant the market has reacted to sentiments. Today, the markets are saying, ‘We’ll deal with this as more vaccines come out.’ Just on that point Pfizer and Moderna have actually applied for emergency approval for a booster vaccine. No decision has been made. This is as we speak, breaking news that they are applying for a booster vaccine. Sorry, let’s continue.

Sree Iyer: Brent has stabilized around 74 and oil is at 73. 10-year treasury notes dropped to 1.294% as a sign of the flight to safety. We showed this to you yesterday.

So I think with that our today’s module comes to a close and we’ll be back again next Monday bright and early. Thank you, Sridhar Ji and congratulations once again.

Sridhar Chityala: Thank you. Best wishes.


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