EP 210 | Daily Global Insights | Jul 24, 2021 | US News | India News | Global News | Markets

EP 210 | Daily Global Insights | Jul 24, 2021 | US News | India News | Global News | Markets

Sree Iyer: Namaskar. Today is July 24th, Saturday, and welcome to Daily Global insights with Sri and Sree. This is episode number 210. Here is what is happening around the Globe. The covid-19 controversial Tokyo 2021 Olympics commence with the sombre opening ceremony, with fewer athletes, officials and Key Sponsors Absent. China flood victims demand answers, as Typhoon in-fa bears down. Asia continues to be ravaged by Covid with lockdowns and travel bans. Welcome to our special edition on Saturday Sridharji and your thoughts on the Olympics.

Sridhar Chityala: Namaskar, Good morning to everybody who is in the United States on the East Coast, very early morning in West Coast and of course, you know, good evening, to our viewers, around the world wherever you are. Well, my observations are that there is telling a talk around, whether this will be cancelled because of the controversy around the Covid and infection within the bubble, lack of presence of spectators. Plus, also, I think that there’s been unilateral criticism from the sponsors on much more proactive communication on the unfolding events within the Olympic Arena and outside the Olympic Arena. So most of the key sponsors including Toyota is absent, but the games have begun and the games will go on how we’ll end up time will tell. But you know, the Olympics What you call Spirit is being preserved. So, that’s on the Olympic side.

Since you covered also Asia seems to have a sudden surge. For a very strange reason, Singapore got Andy Wong to critique Singapore because there has been a sudden spurt in rising cases and he attributed it to an institutional failure in terms of opening up more karaoke bars and those kinds of things that seem to have led the spread. Of course, most of the other places like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, etc., seems to be a rise in cases of this Delta variant. Thailand and Indonesia, Indonesia where specifically gone past 40,000 so it’s a worrying sign. And so now there are even travels bans between for example Malaysia to Cambodia, Malaysia to Vietnam. And then, there is also a travel ban now coming into Singapore. Not great news on the Delta side. But that’s where we are.

Sree Iyer: G20 agrees on global minimum tax, agrees on Broad environment statement, but stuck on climate goals. EU to force Chinese online vendors to play by its rules. What is it that the Chinese are doing to violate the online rules, sir?

Sridhar Chityala:  I think that there are two things, one is around the subsidies and tariffs and the enforcement Etc. So many of the e-commerce companies from outside China, very restrictive rules that apply as if you have been doing transacting business in China. So EU is saying, okay, if you are doing that, then you have to play by the same rules that you are imposing on us. Because China has had a free run around the world. It is just leverage, the opportunity and seized the inertia and lack of intent from the global institutions and leveraged it in different formats which we don’t need to get on. But, I think the EU is waking up so that I think that’s the first part. And I think the second part is climate agenda seems to be complete hogwash in terms of what the underlying goals are. So I don’t think many countries will be able to meet the goals, but they’re trying to push it.

Sree Iyer: China imposes sanctions on individuals. I think I should read that as China imposes, sanctions on the United States individuals and entities over Hong Kong row. Xi makes a surprise visit to Tibet for the first time in his presidency and Makes a visit to Nyingchi. Now, first off on the US individuals. I think some big names are there in that list sir.

Sridhar Chityala:  I think certainly there is Wilbur Ross name in that, he is Commerce secretary supposed to have his Sovereign fund supposed to have had participation in the Chinese Sovereign fund, his name features prominently. Yes, it is indeed. I think that what China is Saying is that okay, you know for violation, of democratic norms and rights for the Hong Kong citizens, you impose on, I’ll impose on you guys for on what you call questioning the racial and the decisions over the sovereignty of one-China policy. Now it’s up to us to do what we want to do. So you know the question that is open is, China, does it want to be part of the mainstream, you know the world system or does it want to have its own set of rules. It’s like saying, you know, human rights and violations, and other kinds of things, only apply to other people, but because we have a certain format of governance. None of you can question what we do anything that we do. But, unfortunately, we are getting what, we call a sporadic response to this, and the US is trying to muzzle its way, only using these types of sanctions. Unless there is some, you know, much more concerted and deterrent mechanism, China will continue to flog norms.

Sree Iyer: China is trying to show everything is good in Tibet to say is Tibetan government-in-exile this would be the one based out of the Dharamshala, isn’t it?

Sridhar Chityala:  Correct, this is one and they are saying, in fact, the Dalai Lama has also made a statement that basically China is engaged in a game of destroying the culture, identity and the fundamental culture that forms Tibetan Buddhism and Tibetan architecture which has contributed for several centuries in both a philosophical and spiritual context. There is also controversy around the selection of the Dalai Lama. So, Xi makes a visit, waves his red flag and he even visits all universities and schools asking everybody to, wave the red flag as you probably know Han Dynasty people have been, you know, imported into Tibet to change the whole composition and the culture. But, the visit is important because Xi for the first time as a president and second, after Jiang Zemin, is the first Chinese president to visit Tibet and given the way, we will cover this little bit in the Indian section. But you know, he’s making a visit to the most strategic areas which is the point of contention between India and China.

Sree Iyer: The three I’s region continues its struggles with 71% of Lebanon risk losing access to clean water, Kurd sand Eastern Syria is ravished by ISIS and Turks trying to regain normal. The three eye region is the one that is defined by Israel, Iran and Iraq. We have to tell talked about this in the past. The United States contemplate sanctions and blockage of China Iran oil trade will be a very interesting development if something should happen. Blinken meets Iraq Foreign Minister in DC and discusses the future role of the United States military in Iraq.  Another withdrawal on the offer, sir?

Sridhar Chityala:  Well, I think very much clear. By the way, the three I’s is defined by DGI are here, we have defined the concept of three “I” programs, which, Iran, Iraq And Israel, we will continue to cover the three “I” just as we cover the Sahel region. Now, to kind of, we have to give a two-cent pitch about what we have defined as the most important Flashpoint in the world.

As far as the Iraqi Foreign Minister with Antony Blinken his concern clearly with Afghanistan withdrawal and persistent and constant threats that are coming from the Iranian Rebels. The rogue forces as well as ISIS and possibly, even Hezbollah. So the US forces, have been under Drone threats, the US forces have been under rocket launch threats. So what the question that is going to bring up is, how long this will be sustained, you know without an offensive mechanism in place you can do selective targeting but the story is how long United States forces can hang on in this kind of semi defensive offensive type of mechanism in a very hostile region. So, to your point, it looks like this is probably a withdrawal of the cards.

Sree Iyer: The US carries out strikes against the Taliban in support of the Afghan government. Your thoughts, sir. I have something to add after you’ve weighed in, sir.

Sridhar Chityala:  Very simple, most of the Afghan planes have had technical difficulties or whatever they call it and this is not much-advertised news. You don’t see it. Very heavily communicated but clearly, you know Afghan pleaded you guys left, look at our planes haven’t taken off. We have been you know we haven’t done your test runs on these or whatever, they may have communicated but, the US seems to have done some air launches the targets and territories are not known and what targets were taken out. We don’t know, but it has at the request of the Afghan government and the Afghan forces.

Sree Iyer: Now, we have to keep in mind. This is a very important data point that the Afghan forces, the strength is around 350,000 and the Taliban is around 70,000. So it’s a five is two one numerical superiority whatever gains the Taliban may have got are all regions where there is hardly any population. So it’s a moot point, whether they have captured ground or not. So we have to wait and see how this plays out, plus this new strategy by the United States has been found to be highly effective. In fact, the Taliban when they were talking on the negotiating table with the US, were complaining about the strike that we’re coming in, from nowhere and hitting their targets. So it is something that the United States knows that they can stop the progress of the Taliban. So we have to wait and see, perhaps, that’s why the Taliban has gone back to talk in Qatar. So we have to wait and see how this plays out. Very, very interesting developments coming down the pipeline.

Next News, Delta variant of Covid is now dominant in Europe, with vaccine rates, falling below 70%. Many European nations are going to roll out Covid passes to visit bars restaurants and Museums.  Euro Zone approves Moderna Vaccine for Age 12 and up.

So, this is probably the first area where the vaccine for ages 12 and up has been approved, sir?

Sridhar Chityala:  I think, it is the first. They were some questions about by Pfizer Biontech vaccine. Also, Israel, every day has been pushing the efficacy of the Pfizer Biontech to be, you know, not that great. Though, we haven’t heard that in the United States, we have had AstraZeneca issues around the world except in countries, such as the UK, the variation of that that we see in India which is Covidshield and similarly the variation of it that you see in Australia. So Moderna has emerged as the candidate which can be used especially as the variant begins to spread and kids have to go back to school. So you need to have both vaccines as well as masking for the kids to be protected. So it’s good that Moderna has been approved by the EU. But also EU is now tightening rules, and many of them are coming up with no-fly zones and red zones. Remember EU was contemplating opening up transatlantic traffic for the tourists to regain momentum in terms of opening up the economy. But they may be a little bit of a slowdown coming as a result of this Delta variant.

Sree Iyer: Eurozone economy, booms at its fastest rate in 21 years is this because of the pandemic you know it’s like a spring being completely suppressed and then let go and the spring bounces back. Is it something like that or should be read more into it?

Sridhar Chityala:  I think the United States, Europe, India belong to this triangle of this disproportionate growth, which is one of coming out of the Covid. The Asia, which didn’t witness this amount of impact in the first, you are beginning to see a little more normalized uptick in the Asian economic growth. But now Asia is experiencing significant Delta variant two.

Yes, EU growth is a result of markets opening up in the pent up demand driving the momentum in a southern spurt in demand. And also there’s been some stimulus programs in the EU.

Sree Iyer: Now, let’s take a look at India news. India’s foreign exchange reserves Zoom to 613 Billion US Dollars. The Indian government approves Rs.6322 crores PLI scheme and Sridhar will expand what PLI means, we mentioned this in the past, to boost domestic steel production. Indian government to set up an upgrade 200,000 Micro Food Processing Units by the fiscal year 2025, with an outlay of Rs.10,000 crores. India scores better than many countries such as France and the United Kingdom in trade facilitation, that’s new for India. Sir, your thoughts.

Sridhar Chityala:  My thoughts are. I think that the FX reserves have continued to grow is that is great news around the inflows plus the US dollar Reserve being added also contributed to some extent by the discounting dollar.

As far as the PLI – The program, the incentive scheme. This is a program that the government is introduced that provides capital augmentation support and as well, as some tax concessions, which forms the basis for both Domestic and Global corporations to come up and set up Manufacturing units. So that program is now extended to Steel and it seems to have a positive impact.

As far as the Micro Food process is concerned. I’m glad that they’re continuing to push this because the Agroecosystem in a holistic manner, comprises of you know, taking the raw food you know, quarantine, packaging Logistics, storage Transportation that’s one. It may take a little longer but when set up this micro food processing that at least this can be processed food be stored and transported to around the world. So it’s great news that India is embarking on this program. Italy is a very big player jointly collaborating with India on this. We also talked about this micro food park where some of this material can be sent and can be consumed in those foot parks by people because it is very similar to what we have can food here, which dominates the US food retail market. So, all these are augurs well.

As far as this trade index is concerned, I mean, I looked at the numbers, India scores around 92-93%, then you study very closely. This is about all this digital innovation and digital transformation, as well as the digital Sustainability Index. Now, there are two ways to collaborate this data. One way to corroborate this data is when you look at the inflow of capital into the digital startup ecosystem. We won’t have a fireside chat, you know pretty soon within the next 2-3 days. Yes, we will discuss all this. So this is a sign that there is money flowing in which means they’re the unicorns are coming out of India. And then that when you translate, that means Capital can flow. Capital flows only when you have a sustainable ecosystem, that allows capital and is able to apply into Innovation companies which translates into realizable outcomes, at least sustainable, predictable and reliable outcomes. So, when you add these two numbers, it is surprising that India has got extremely high in this domain. It is actually 92% relative, too many countries, including France, Norway, you take small and large countries OECD countries. India has done well; this again is very positive news in this whole digital ecosystem.

Sree Iyer: At a time when investors are selling Chinese technology stocks, more money is chasing Indian startups. Like Sridharji, mentioned we are going to have a separate fireside chat on this. Zomata has a blowout IPO and Stellar debut and what holds for Zomata, as stock is soared 82% on day One, the interesting thing about this is Zomata owns, nothing the delivery person who owns the vehicle, the delivery person has to take care of all the expenses. You make a commission on the deliveries and we have seen some very unsavoury videos of the delivery person. Eating the food is about to deliver before He delivers it. All that, you know is water under the bridge. They seem to have had a great IPO, sir, your thoughts and also I might add that as I visit the Indian stores lately I’m seeing a lot of new brands, new flavours, New Stock, and a danger that our ever-expanding bulge around the middle is threatening to bulge one more time.

Sridhar Chityala:  Is the prosperity, reflecting the Bulge or is the health disaster reflected in the bulge that a debate between Prosperity versus health, we won’t get into that, but getting back to Zomato, I think that the whole Logistics and transportation delivery business, you know, Graham for example in Singapore, Ola, for example, Uber for example, in the United States, all that you can see there, become a multi-facet, distribution architecture, effectively, you have our own no assets. All the assets are owned by the individuals be it a car, be it truck, be it individual. And then you don’t even own the content which is namely the food or any type of other. So you just become a facilitator, delivering convenience, delivering service, delivering on-demand requirement all these caters to be ever timed, ever starred a workforce around the world, that is a consistent pattern. So, I think it augurs well, on three fronts, one tremendous IPO which means that there is the people who see this as a positive momentum of transformative destruction as transformative destruction comes with these collateral consequences that Sreeji is alluding to but that is not the main theme. If that is the main thing, then it will not have the valuation. The second, I think that is very important, you may see the expansion of this, we touched little bit around right now, it’s food delivery, very soon, these distribution models may apply to even your Kirana stores, which are coming up with online apps and say, Hey, you know, this fellow is willing to, why should he go to Amazon or so, I will deliver the same thing to him. I am clearing the inventory as they have automated, the inventory management system. So I think there’s a much brighter future as India reinvents itself. So this is the change. While the jobs go away but there is this transformation that is taking place. Is the substitution going to the same people or is the substitution happening with displacement? That is something that India has to manage as it develops its digital ecosystem.

Sree Iyer: Anthony Blinken to visit India on July 27 to discuss bilateral ties, QUAD meet in Washington DC, Afghanistan, and other Regional issues. There are 17 Chinese Airfields in and around the Tibetan Plateau, ten of which surrounded the Indian border stretching along the Karakoram and Himalayan region from the west to east. Taxkorgan, Ngari-Gunsa, Burang, Tingri, Shigatze, Lhasa-Gonggar, Damxung, Lhuntse, Nyingchi and Bangda make up the list, writes Venugopal Narayan. Remember viewers, we talked about Xi Jinping coming to Nyingchi. So this is basically what appears to be a precursor to perhaps an action where you might see that China might be getting ready to invade. Sridharji, I have got the map showing all the different Airport insulation, sir, please go ahead.

Sridhar Chityala: I think this is a great map. People should take notice of this. There are 17 airports, 17 Airfields coming around the Tibetan Plateau coming up to Xingjiang province of which 7 are in the outer perimeter, for example, Plaaf, Plaaf Hotan, Keriya, Plaaf Qeimo etc. But then you come to the inner Karakorum stretching from west to east, then you begin to see a little say, for example, Lhuntse, or Nyingchi, or Shingatze, or Tingri, they are all very close. Tingri is in Dokhlam, the Chinese neck point. So, I think that Xi Jinping has decided that he would not want to accept but India has successfully inflicted two defeats. One in Dokhlam. India stood firm and they had to withdraw, so they learned the lessons and they withdrew. Then in the Galwan Valley and in Ladakh, they found that their soldiers are not well equipped and battle-hardened to deal with the Indians who are even willing to hand combat to win the Chinese. So he has learnt, but Xi is a guy unless he is dealt with a disproportionate defeat which humiliates him, he is not going to withdraw.  So he wants to confront and he says ‘I’m going to confront and I’m going to come right here want to have my territory’ in his pursuit of expansion. I believe, India is well-equipped and they is a very significant probability of confrontation because, in several flashpoints, they are only a few meters away from each other at a combat point. Something breaks loose, just like it happened in Galwan we will have your flashpoint. But India is well-prepared, I don’t know what the rhetoric in Indian media is, but India seems to be well prepared this time or even last time, or even before last time to take on the Chinese, there will be consequences, but India is well prepared. This is where folks that $613 billion that is in the reserve becomes very helpful if there is a 30 to 40-day war or a 60-day war between India and China. India has the reserves to import as well as the reserves to augment supplies as is required drawing from the reserves that India is holding Because Indian Defence and Security Experts call it a 2 and 1/2 war. 2-1/2 for being surrogates of Pakistan, Pakistan, and China confronting India both in its western as well as in the northern borders.

Sree Iyer: India tests new generation Akash missile successfully, capable of shooting down aerial threats with low radar cross-section. This is the second test of this particular missile. Your thoughts, sir, before we move on.

Sridhar Chityala: This is a surface-to-air missile. They continue to enhance their capabilities. This particular new generation is supposed to be a lighter platform, better radar capabilities and is changed the engineering of the motor etc. Again, as you can see, every day, there is a new piece of news trickling in from the DRDO, which is saying that India is developing its armoury and ready to meet the demands as is required, should there be a confrontation at the Border.

Sree Iyer: Now, let’s take a look at the United States news. Texas Attorney General says that he endorses election audit in Texas. Texas Democrats who fled to DC skipping the special session will return only after the special session is complete. Of course, many of them are in quarantine. Texas begins arresting illegal immigrants trespassing as part of Governor Abbott’s security plan. So now, this is the first tangible action we are seeing of people who have already entered the United States, isn’t it?

Sridhar Chityala: It is, I think also at the point who are entering. So they will arrest those who have entered and those who have been captured. The ICE that is Immigration Control Enforcement, which is under the federal body, which has been dismantled has been sent to do a routine detection within the, within the reach of those States. Now, Texas has stepped up. Remember, many states sent their police and other forces to Texas to help Texas augment its border requirement. So now they passed a law that they will arrest anybody who is coming in, who is illegal, and that is a State subject. I’m glad that Texas has taken the lead. The other thing that you talked about is this great rhetoric or the hypocrisy of these Texas Democrats staying away have unleashed covid as well on the others.

We have not covered one news which is, inTexas is the Democrats and in Oregon, it is the Republicans who are boycotting the Oregon State initiatives. So on one side, the mainstream media will say this, on the other side the mainstream will take an opposite stand. But it’s very clear that this newfound technique which basically seems to be again like an Indian playbook where you boycott the sessions and no rules can be enforced.

Sree Iyer: Why are you getting all the wrong things from India? Why don’t you get a spirituality part instead? Anyway, that’s just my thought. House Freedom Caucus calls on McCarthy to attempt to remove Pelosi as Speaker. This is very very interesting, sir. This is the Jan 6 committee going back and forth and back and forth. The Republicans don’t have the numbers. I’m sure this is going to be a partisan vote unless Democrats vote for along their conscience. Your thoughts, sir, do you think McCarthy is going to succeed?

Sridhar Chityala: Freedom caucus comprises about 45-50 House Republicans. They are people who are in the centre and right, comprised of people like McCarthy, Jim Jordan, etc. So they are part of the committee and it’s also the Tea Party members. If you recall, go back to those who are in a 2008, the policy, the Tea Party members and the guys are basically saying it’s time that we confront and push a no-confidence motion and see whether the progressives and those renegades within the Democratic party will support the freedom of caucus or the freedom caucus group in ousting Nancy Pelosi. That would send a very severe and serious signal where what the outcome will be, we don’t know. But clearly, they are going after Nancy Pelosi

Sree Iyer: Is Biden seriously unwell? Will he resign or face the 25th amendment? Is National Security a major concern? White House Doctor, Republican rep Jackson has posed these questions. Sridharji, with your permission, I’m putting up the picture of the White House. Former doctor rep Jackson and says he was a doctor. Maybe you can touch upon for which president he was a doctor at the White House and why a doctor statement should be taken as a doctor statement rather than a republican Congressman statement?

Sridhar Chityala: I think, Dr Jackson was a doctor for Obama as well as Trump during their period in the White House. What he is pointing out is, I’ve been saying this all along, but there is a problem with Mr Biden was visible and present right throughout. Now it is coming becoming more and more, and more apparent. Those who have watched the CNN, townhouse video of Mr Biden, we have two very sympathetic rather than be overly critical because he’s probably quite sick. He is making no sense in terms of his communication and conversation. Now, what they’re saying is that naturally as the president of the country, this poses significant National Security issues. Plus, what is the signing and what is he not signing? Because he has the authority, he is the elected president. You can’t have somebody else doing unless he officially resigns, or they use the 25th Amendment to basically say, we have to change the president because he’s not fit for purpose at this point in time. So these questions are posted and there’s enough evidence to point out and the reason why we show this data is so you can see for yourself. These are not something that DGI invents, but this is the data that is available, that is shared on a public platform. So all of you can have access to the same information that we have, but it is quite disconcerting. Again, President Biden is not mentioning India. Jill Biden is visiting Tokyo Olympics and she was there representing the United States. So you can see that more or less of his program is cut off.

Sree Iyer: Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has asked Congress to raise or suspend the debt limits by August 2nd. Which is this, sir, personal debt, or is it credit card debt? Which one is she talking about?

Sridhar Chityala: She is talking about the US debt. So the US debt limit, last time was $22 trillion and by August 1st, that debt limit has to be increased. While it has to be increased, in the meanwhile, we have added $6.5 trillion of debt even before we had other debt that is likely to come as a result of this new National infrastructure bill as well as the budget, if we bring that in. If they don’t extend, she says, they have to come up with extraordinary programs to make sure that the obligations are met. Because if you are going to do a drawdown on the 6.5 trillion which you have. In fact,, if I can give my numbers, out of the 6.5 trillion 4.43 trillion dollars has already been drawn down. My data is about 30 days old. I’m just giving you the data and by now that’s probably inching its way. So when it gets added, the US debt officially in the treasury numbers would look like28.5 trillion. We have predicted by end of 2021, the US debt will be $31 trillion. We have given the graphs. We are waiting for the next 3.5 plus 1.2 trillion programs to be finalized before we have a separate Fireside session. So we can walk you down as to how these numbers have flown into various programs from local, to covid, to overseas, to broadband, to transportation, to logistics. But Janet Yellen is saying, if you don’t increase the debt ceiling to 28.5 trillion, I have to come up with programs because I’m not going to default.

Sree Iyer: Senate successfully filibustered the Democrats infrastructure agenda and Democrats are almost ready to abandon discussions and resort to the reconciliation process to get through their agenda. This is the 1.2 trillion infrastructure plan with the 3.5 trillion investment in middle-class expansion and climate plan. So what is this reconciliation thing happening that is the Senate bill and the congress bill. There’ll be members from both sides sitting down and trying to find some common ground?

Sridhar Chityala: Reconciliation is basically, they’ll come up with their own plan. They will put it in a simple, majority vote. They say that it is an extraneous, extraordinary measure that warrants. They will not go through the conventional filibuster process and then use the reconciliation. They cannot use the reconciliation, we have touched on this before, they can use reconciliation only 2 or 3 times and I think they have a mandate to use reconciliation in this instance. We won’t touch any further on this because I dealt extensively with the previous point, but we’ll have a separate Fireside to look at all these numbers. So people are aware of where the United States is heading. Where it is going deeper and deeper and deeper into a moribund.

Sree Iyer: As covid cases rise in the United States, in all 50 states, with daily cases now exceeding, 43,700 per day over the past one week. Delta variant appears to have tightened its grip. Vaccination progress has stalled. White House refuses to reveal the extent of covid cases resulting from contact with Texas Democrats. Brazen DC shooting is the latest in the capital as rising crimes threaten the US cities. The new DC chief unleashes on the city for coddling criminals. Sir, your thoughts on this covid thing. Again, looks like we are going to have a lockdown. Is that a possibility or is it going to be more selective?

Sridhar Chityala: Again for DGI, we have been relentlessly talking about active covid cases in the United States for the past three weeks. Not now, but for the past three to three and a half weeks. Lo and behold, everybody kept quiet and said, are these the numbers? And suddenly you find, this is now a big issue in the United States. We have stated that over 50% of the cases… By the way, we’re not inventing these data. This data is present except people don’t report on the data, the mainstream doesn’t want to report. Anything that is bad news. They don’t want to alert anybody as to the imminent danger that the United States faces. I also want to add the point, California represents more than 30% of the Active cases. How much? Probably many of them are greater than 50%. You talk to an average Californian citizen, he will say no we don’t have any covid cases. When I say, how do you know you don’t have any covid cases? Anyway, to get to the point, we have a problem. Whether there is going to be a lockdown, I don’t think there will be a lockdown. They’re going to impose much stricter conditions, which are if you are not vaccinated, you’re not going to be allowed to enter restaurants, you will not be allowed to come to work. You’re not be allowed to do this, that, and so on. So for people like me, who are vaccinated with 2 vaccines, it will be amazing. It is a little card which basically in a handwritten card, which will mention the date of birth, date of the first vaccine, date of second vaccine etc. So this is what is called a vaccine passport, which probably has other additional types of information. So that’s the document that they’re going to use and I think masking is coming as well as mandatory.

By the way, for the first time, even in Florida, DeSantis is now saying get vaccinated as cases rise in Florida as well. Why is it rising in Florida? Remember we have a lot of people coming from across the border moving to different places. They have not been tested for covid. There is no mechanism, even now for them to be tested, there’s no mechanism to vaccinate them. So, therefore, we don’t even know where many of these people are. Over 75 – 78% of the people have intermingled into society.

Sree Iyer: I wonder what the regressive have to say about all this stuff. They have brought this thing upon themselves. Let’s take a look at Markets. Markets climb as Dow jumps more than 200 points to finish 35,000+ for the first time ever. Sir, with your permission, I’ll put the chart where we have the Dow scaling the 35,000 points. It’s up. Now, sir, the first of the three charts that we are going to talk about? Go ahead, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: The first chart is effectively the market data numbers where you can see all the S&P, NASDAQ, even Russell 2000 and Dow has increased. The rate increases from 1% – 1.05%. We talked about this when markets took a depressive turn on Monday. Things have turned back around.

Then, there’s a chart which shows from January 2020 to July 2021, the rapid climb of Dow. It’s climbed almost close to 20% – 22%, since then I think it was at 30,000, now it is around 35,000. So, therefore, that’s a significant climb in a very short span of two years. Now, the other thing is the volatility. The volatility is the 2-day Dow climb. That is the third chart that we have seen. So all these points out is that we have been saying that 2021, is the year of the equity markets. Why? There’s enough cash. Why? There’s enough unspent cash. Why? There is more cash coming. Why? Inflation doesn’t matter. Why? There is a third data point which is interest rates, believe it or not, we are talking about 1.63% and going to 2%, the interest rates have come down to 1.28% before it marginally went up to 1.31%. This is 10-year interest rates at 1.3%. There is tremendous liquidity available for those who are in the construction industry. Mind you, this is the base rate, you will always have to add extra 2% points to this in terms of the market. But still, at 3% or 2.75%, it’s a very attractive rate for people to refinance a various range of programs. The low interest rate translates into economic outcomes or revenues for the companies, which in turn is reflected in the stock markets. What happens in 2022? We will discuss this in the last quarter, but 2021 is going to be a good year if you are in equity markets, as was 2020, as was 2019.

Sree Iyer: 10-year T-bond inched higher to perish at 1.281% after dipping earlier in the week to 1.13%. So, overall, the markets are doing extremely well.

And I think, it’s time to call it a wrap. Thanks for joining, will be back again, bright and early on Monday. Namaskar.

Sridhar Chityala: Namaskar. Thank you. I know, we overshot the time a fair bit taking the liberty of this Saturday, but there was plenty of news to cover. Mind you, these are two days of news we are covering today rather than one day.

Sree Iyer: Thank you very much, sir. Namaskar.

Sridhar Chityala: Thank you, namaskar, have a wonderful day.




Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here