Tamil Nadu is the best example of the BJP’s persistent push
In Tamil Nadu, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s thundering six speeches followed by Amit Shah’s warning to the dynasts of Dravidian parties are indicative of post-2024 poll results. It is certainly indicative of introducing a hard-core Hindutva hyper-push in Tamil Nadu, thus rattling the DMK in particular.
In the upcoming Lok Sabha 2024 elections, Tamil Nadu is certain to throw the biggest surprise with the poll campaigning in its last legs.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aggressive push in Tamil Nadu, DMK chief M K Stalin‘s efforts to whip up anti-BJP and anti-Narendra Modi sentiments, ADMK Leader Edapati Palaniswamy not effectively countering DMK, district-level powerful political parties taking an anti-BJP stand could possibly be the factors which can throw surprise.
The poll result surprise will not only be shocking but most likely will create a new wave of history in the Tamil Nadu political spectrum.
Most political parties are keeping an eye on the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly polls. Regional parties in Tamil Nadu speculate a scenario of ‘Ab ki baar 400 paar’. Few top leaders have confirmed having reserve funds for Assembly polls where a regional party can play an effective role. Why compete in spending in competition with DMK or for that matter BJP or ADMK?
What could be the possible scenarios?
The 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly polls dares the minds of Dravidian party cadres.
- If DMK wins all 39, will it help the I.N.D.I. Alliance to add up numbers, when voters realize that I.N.D.I.A block is yet to take off? In that case, 39 MPs of DMK will be ineffective.
- If BJP wins 8/10 this will add up to 400 paar which means 408 NDA MPs.
- Another possibility of ADMK winning 15-20 will add up to NDA or I.N.D.I.A Block. ADMK and DMK may not remain in one formation.
The results on June 4, 2024, will throw an uncertainty, in Tamil Nadu. Undoubtedly it will be a heyday for dissidents to change political loyalties between to Kazhagams. Will the BJP do an AAP and JMM style of political coups?
Tossing with lots of possible scenarios:
In case DMK wins, what will happen on the same level if ADMK led by EPS sweeps the state? Then how would Stalin’s government perform till 2026? The two prominent Dravidian parties Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam have joined together to stop the juggernaut of BJP in the state of Tamil Nadu.
In a short span of time, say two years since 2021, the two Dravidian parties which were inimical to each other, have become close associates. To stop the outreach of Narendra Modi in Tamil Nadu. As the adage goes enemy’s enemy is friend, M K Stalin leader of DMK openly invited the ADMK cadre that we are (in Tamil Pangaligal) ideologically related and won’t encourage (in Tamil Virundhali) a guest to dominate in our Tamil family. Here the guests are BJP and PM Narendra Modi.
Summarizing the 2024 Lok Sabha poll campaign of Tamil Nadu: Dangerous days ahead for two Dravidian parties
- Voters are wanting a change from a repeat of Kazhagams alternatively for 70 years.
- DMK is facing a massive anti-incumbency due to the party being unable to fulfill poll promises.
- The poll campaign style by DMK suggests that Dravidian ideology is fast fading away. One can illustrate multiple examples to prove this point.
- Equally so the Hindutva is also gaining momentum in the atheist’s land.
- First-time voters born in the Jayalalitha era are unable to comprehend Dravidian theories. MGR and Jaya’s duo had certainly given a new twist to Hindutva even before the BJP propagated it.
- Rajnikant was keen on spiritual politics but was aborted due to his backing out of launching a political party. Rajni was under tremendous pressure from DMK to drop the idea of his heading a pro-BJP front.
- Centre unleashing its agencies against DMK is helping BJP – satisfying one section of hardcore anti-DMK voters.
- PM Modi’s visits in the last 4 months could effectively remove the negative image of the Prime Minister. BJP pushing with a surgical strike style of operations by Amit Shah Union Home Minister really rattled DMK.
- BJP is steadily capturing the vacuum of Amma Jayalalitha’s legacy. ADMK has been a pro-Hindu party that supports Ram Mandir and also an abrogation of Article 370. Jayalalitha daringly added these two controversial points in the ADMK poll manifesto.
- In all his public rallies Narendra Modi repeatedly emphasized the drug menace, and sand mafias ruling roost in the state of Tamil Nadu that the DMK-ruled state government is unable to control.
- Narendra Modi raised Kacchatheevu, which has DMK in a tight spot at the state level but at the national level Modi is using it against Nehru Indira and Congress legacies. This hot topic is bound to create sympathies for the BJP in 8/10 parliament constituencies.
- Tamil Nadu with the 90 percent literacy rate, voters are yet to distinguish between national issues and civic amenities problems. Each voter is seeking a redressal of the local drainage system and repairing of non-functional street lights.
- A new trend is fast catching up that voters stop the leader’s vehicles and ask controversial awkward questions about certain schemes which are not fulfilled by MK Stalin’s government. This is irritating the ruling party and its allies.
- Social media is the only source of political grapevines, as the Tamil TV news channels are not highlighting issues due to pressures from the ruling party.
Whichever way one views the above possibilities, DMK is to take harsh steps to get revenues for the state DMK cannot reveal lots of poll promise-freebies– because M K Stalin will face tough opposition runup to the 2026 Assembly polls. BJP is staring at DMK for its slips. In the words of P Chidambaram former Finance Minister, the real fight in rural areas is between DMK and BJP and not with ADMK.
Few leaders do realize that one nation one poll is a need of the hour and that the Election Commission should consider holding polls in October and November months not in scorching summer to wind up the narrative in a lighter vein.
A Kili Josiyar (fortuneteller) in Cuddalore who predicted that a BJP ally would win the Lok Sabha seat didn’t foresee that his declaration would land him behind bars.
Selvaraj shot to fame on Sunday when he told PMK candidate and cine director Thankar Bachan that he would win Cuddalore. This was after Selvaraj’s parrot picked out a card. But on Tuesday, Selvaraj was arrested for keeping a parrot in captivity. Cuddalore district forest ranger J Ramesh said it was a crime to cage parrots, which are protected under the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972.
Tamil Nadu voters are known for rendering one-sided verdicts, either DMK sweep or ADMK landslide victory one hopes 2024 will undo this by giving a mixed basket verdict.
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