PerformanceGurus Staff
The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters since September 2007. The results of the survey represent views of the respondent forecasters and in no way reflect the views or forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India. Twenty seven professional forecasters participated in the latest survey round conducted in May 2015 and the results are summarized as follows:
Annual Forecasts
- Real Gross Value Added at basic price (GVA) to increase by 7.8%
- In 2016-17, GVA is expected to increase by 8.2%
- In terms of subjective probabilities assigned to growth projections, forecasters ascribed maximum 55 per cent chance that GVA growth in 2015-16 will be in the range of 7.5-7.9 per cent (Chart 1). For the year 2016-17, GVA growth in 8.0-8.4 per cent range is the most probable outcome.
| Table 1: Median Forecast of Real GVA (Growth Rate) for 2015-16 and 2016-17 | ||
| Sectors | 2015-16 | 2016-17 |
| Real GVA | 7.8 (-0.1) |
8.2 |
| Agriculture and Allied Activities | 2.2 (-1.2) |
3.0 |
| Industry | 6.2 (-0.1) |
7.0 |
| Services | 10.0 (-0.1) |
10.1 |
Note:
1. Growth rates are in per cent.
2. Figures in parentheses are change in forecasts from the previous survey round. This is applicable for all the Tables.
Quarterly Forecasts
- Real GVA growth at basic prices is expected to improve gradually from 7.5 per cent in Q1: 2015-16 to 8.4 per cent in Q1:2016-17 (Table 6).
| Table 6: Median Forecast of Real GVA growth from Q1:2015-16 to Q1:2016-17 | |||||
| Sector | Q1:15-16 | Q2:15-16 | Q3:15-16 | Q4:15-16 | Q1:16-17 |
| Real GVA at basic prices | 7.5 (0.0) |
7.7 (-0.2) |
7.8 (+0.1) |
8.0 (-0.1) |
8.4 |
| Agriculture and Allied Activities | 1.0 (-1.2) |
2.0 (-1.1) |
3.0 (-0.5) |
3.4 (0.0) |
3.0 |
| Industry | 5.2 (-0.3) |
6.0 (0.0) |
6.6 (-0.1) |
6.6 (-0.1) |
7.0 |
| Services | 10.0 (0.0) |
9.5 (-0.5) |
9.4 (-0.5) |
9.6 (-0.6) |
9.8 |
Note:
1. Growth rates are in per cent.
2. Figures in parentheses are change in forecasts from the previous survey round. This is applicable for all the Tables.
Long Term Forecasts
-
Shows GVA projections over the next five to ten years
You can read the complete report here.
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