Musings of The Hope Seller
BJP – Honest, genuine supporters
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]M[/dropcap]ost of the politically aware and conscious citizens have a wish (want) list which is dear to them. They consider these to be important for the progress of the country and in most cases rightly so. Consequently they choose to support a Party whose expressed and sometime assumed program comes closest to their own. It is also possible that an individual who is charismatic, articulate and committed would command the respect of these citizens. Since this group puts a premium on their thoughts and values (wishes/ wants), are forced to choose a party and persist with them despite differences for the simple reason that There Is No Alternative (TINA). The wants of this group are many and they are almost always disappointed as no Government or Party can fulfil all that is required by this large group, especially in electoral politics.
…the actual vote that makes a difference between being a Ruling Party and the Opposition is the votes of the swing voters.
This group, by and large, has nowhere to go except to one party. Every party aspires that this group is much larger for them to make their life comfortable. This group while important to a party, mostly does not include field activists. This job is left to the cadres. The expectation from the cadres are more realistic (as they go through the hard grind) and practically understand the electoral compulsions much better. Cadres are the ones who bring ordinary voters into booths and make them vote for their party. It is no secret that while every party wants this to be their largest voter base, it is actually the least of its captive vote banks. Cadre understands the limitations of a party in implementing the promises and hence would still be happy with them even if only some of the promises are partially or fully implemented.
The swing voters decide who wins an election. These are the voters who will decide to vote for a particular party based on many factors that prevail closer to the elections. The size of the swing voters differs depending on many factors that exist during the election period. In fact some from the group might become swing voters too.
Voters in the first group are voting to a party despite their differences is common because of the TINA factor. Cadres vote for their Party. However, the actual vote that makes a difference between being a Ruling Party and the Opposition is the votes of the swing voters. In a nutshell the promises made to these voters are the most important for a party and mostly in line with the expectations for the first group and cadres and these fall in the Minimum implementation category.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]I[/dropcap]t is stated in many quarters that our Prime Minister (PM) maintained a studied silence after the Surgical Strike. In my opinion his conduct has been “Statesman” like and exemplary. This is the hallmark of a Man who has planned and implemented his strategy well and hence is confident that actions speaks louder. In fact the more silent he is, the more admired he becomes. Mr. Omar Abdullah spoke appreciatively about the PM and his Government on their conduct after the surgical strike during the conference at NYU. Many opposition leaders also appreciated and commended the efforts. Of course the nuances of electoral politics were also seen in the statements from the political spectrum from the likes of Arvind Kejriwal, Sanjay Nirupam, etc.
He invited SAARC leaders for Swearing in ceremony including Pak PM. This, according to me, is his way of assessing which of the SAARC leaders are with India and who are likely to be supporting Pak. When all of them accepted the invitation, Pak had no option but to come.
Even for a common newspaper reading (now Twitter too) citizen, it is obvious how he has set up the environment and made it congenial before actually acting.
He made it known all and sundry that he would like to act against Pak if provoked during his many pre-poll meetings and on interviews with the 56” Chest being the highlight. Many of his followers also started wondering whether he will act decisively and me not excluded. This was a message for the Security Forces that their opportunity will come to retaliate and that their valor would be acknowledged in public. This was also a message to the Indian Citizens who were itching for a reprisal.
He invited SAARC leaders for Swearing in ceremony including Pak PM. This, according to me, is his way of assessing which of the SAARC leaders are with India and who are likely to be supporting Pak. When all of them accepted the invitation, Pak had no option but to come. Also through this action he has let the world powers know that he is primarily for dialogue and resolution of all issues.
Our PM also took the opportunity to meet and discuss with Pak PM on the sidelines of many international engagements which also resulted in the Ufa Declaration. This, in my opinion, is his way of letting the world know that India is serious about a negotiated settlement.
He made an impromptu visit to Pakistan to attend to a function in the family of Pak PM. This surely surprised many world leaders. This would surely have left a lasting impression that our PM is serious about a negotiated settlement as the first choice.
Our PM and MEA have built up sufficient diplomacy with most of the countries in the world and its leaders, whose opinions matter the most.
The important point is that the ground was prepared with the above actions before actually acting on it. While the timing would have surprised many including the Pakistani Military and Terrorists, the action in itself would not have surprised many.
This has sent a message that our PM is clearly committed to his agenda and will implement them as and when the environment is conducive. It appears for some he will create a conducive environment and for others he will wait for an opportunity. One such opportunity presented itself on the issue of Triple Talaq. And it can be seen how decisively he has moved on this subject.
The concluding part of The Hope Seller will appear on Sunday…