Ashok Koul’s 4 statements
On December 21, J&K BJP general secretary (organization), Ashok Koul, made four noteworthy statements in Srinagar. One was that the “BJP is confident of winning over 50 seats in J&K and forming the (first-ever) government on its own” (in J&K UT). The other was that “the BJP will not enter into a pre-poll alliance for the Assembly elections in J&K.” The third was that “after the elections take place, if an alliance is needed, it will happen.” And his fourth statement or claim was that “the BJP is getting support in Kashmir.”
Poll prospects in Jammu
Can the BJP win over 50 out of 90 seats into which the UT of J&K has been territorially divided for the purpose of constituting a Legislative Assembly? Or, is the assertion of Ashok Koul based on the political situation as it exists in Jammu province, which will return to the Assembly with 43 members, and Kashmir, which will elect 47 members?
The not-so-popular BJP, which had won eight seats in 1996, a paltry one in 2002, eleven in 2008, and twenty-five in 2014, in Jammu province, and which depends on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah for its very survival and existence in this politically and strategically vital region, cannot win more than 32 out of 43 seats. The BJP can win all six seats in Kathua district; all three in Samba District; all eleven seats in Jammu district; three out of five in Rajouri district, four to five in Doda, Kishtwar, and Ramban districts; one seat in Reasi district; and all the four in Udhampur district. In other words, the BJP can defeat its political rivals – the Congress of Sonia Gandhi, the National Conference (NC) of Abdullahs, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mehbooba Mufti, and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) of Ghulam Nabi Azad. The BJP is unlikely to open its account in Poonch district as before because it is 95 percent Muslim-dominated.
27 out of these 32 seats are overwhelming Hindu majority and in the remaining five seats, the Hindu and Muslim population is evenly balanced. As for the remaining eleven seats, these could be shared between the separatist GUPKAR constituents or the constituents of the rabidly anti-Sanatan I.N.D.I. Alliance. The DPAP could also win one or two seats out of these eleven seats, especially in the Doda, Kishtwar, and Ramban districts. All these eleven seats are Muslim-majority and the Muslims do not vote for the BJP for reasons not really difficult to fathom.
And remember, if the BJP at all wins 32 seats in Jammu province, it would be the victory of the Prime Minister and the Home Minister, and not of the local BJP leadership.
Poll prospects in Kashmir
The claim of Ashok Koul that the “BJP is getting support in Kashmir” appears to be an exercise in self-deception. The BJP has no support base whatsoever in any of the 47 constituencies in Kashmir. All these constituencies are 99.99 percent Muslim. Leave aside a few Muslims here and there in the Valley who flirt or hobnob with the BJP for security cover or for the sake of personal profit. All, barring three to four seats in Kashmir, will be shared between the I.N.D.I. Alliance/GUPKAR Group whether they contest the election jointly or separately. The GUPKAR Group consists of Congress, NC, PDP, CPIM, etc and they are all integral parts of the I.N.D.I. Alliance. In other words, the I.N.D.I. Alliance would win at least 42 to 43 seats in Kashmir.
As far as the remaining three to four seats in Kashmir are concerned, these could be shared between the People’s Conference (PC) of Sajad Lone and the J&K Apni Party (JKAP) of Altaf Bukhari. The PC and the JKAP are termed in Kashmir as the “King’s Parties”. In other words, these parties are considered the Prime Minister’s parties in the Valley.
The matter of fact is that the BJP will forfeit its security deposit in all the Assembly segments as before.
Alliance with whom?
With whom the BJP will forge a post-poll alliance? With the pro-greater Kashmir and pro-greater autonomy NC, which has destroyed Jammu socially, culturally, politically, religiously, and economically; which has been seeking the support of China and Pakistan for getting back Article 370 and Article 35A, full state status for J&K and reunification of Ladakh with Kashmir, or which says day in and day out that it will contest elections not on the bijli, pani, sadak and developmental planks, but on the pre-August 4, 2019 politico-constitutional set up plank to start with? With the PDP, which has been denouncing the Prime Minister and the Home Minister as “thieves and dacoits”; which has been dismissing with contempt Bharat as an “occupation force”; which has been denouncing the Supreme Court for its landmark judgment on Article 370; and which has been consistently trying to cause ant-Bharat explosions in Kashmir and certain parts of Jammu province? Prime Minister Narendra Modi had termed the 2015-2018 PDP-BJP alliance as “maha milawat” (unholy). With the Congress, which is the mother of all ills facing Bharat? With Azad, who snatched land from Shri Amarnath Shrine Board, took away 12 precious lives in Jammu in 2008, pitched for self-rule or Indo-Pak joint-control over J&K like PDP in 2006, applied the Wazir Commission report in a wrong way to further hurt Jammu by creating four districts in Kashmir, as against one recommended by the Wazir Commission etc?
It would be only reasonable to say that the Prime Minister and the Home Minister will never allow the BJP to enter into any kind of alliance with the NC, the PDP, the Congress, and similar other outfits because the national mood is against all these subversive and anti-Sanatan outfits. The Prime Minister and the Home Minister are fully aware of the national sentiment, the national requirement, and the nation’s compulsions and that’s the reason they are introducing one reform after another that inspires the Sanatanis and helps the ongoing process of nation-building.
Statehood to Jammu
The local BJP leadership must look all these facts in the face. It must stop daydreaming. It must recognize and appreciate the ground realities as they exist in Jammu province and Kashmir Valley. It must give a true picture of facts to the Prime Minister and the Home Minister.
In short, if the local BJP sincerely wishes to promote the national cause and strengthen the nationalist constituency in this strategic part of the nation, it has no other option but to demand the separation of Jammu province from Kashmir. Separation of Jammu from Kashmir will, on the one hand, will help it establish its own government in Jammu province and strengthen Jammu, the backbone of the nation, and, on the other, it will help the Central Government limit the area of strife to the tiny Kashmir Valley.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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