IRGC influence seen expanding across strategic decisions
Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly assumed dominant control over the country’s military and diplomatic decision-making, according to a report citing regional analysts.
The shift is said to have taken place over the weekend, with IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and his close allies emerging as key decision-makers within Iran.
The development comes amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s reported move to bypass planned ceasefire negotiations with the United States.
Moderate leaders sidelined
According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, more moderate figures within Iran’s leadership have been pushed aside.
This includes Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who had indicated willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after talks with the Trump administration.
However, the IRGC reportedly overruled him, insisting the waterway remain closed in response to US pressure on Iranian ports.
IRGC strengthens strategic grip
The report said Ahmad Vahidi has secured backing from Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, consolidating control over military and strategic operations.
The IRGC has also increased its operational presence in the region, relying heavily on fast attack vessels after suffering losses to conventional naval forces in recent conflicts.
Tensions escalated further after Iran reportedly targeted multiple vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Divisions within leadership
Zolghadr’s influence is also said to extend into diplomatic efforts. He was reportedly added to Iran’s negotiating team to ensure alignment with IRGC directives and the authority of Mojtaba Khamenei.
The report pointed to internal divisions within the delegation, claiming that Zolghadr raised concerns that Araghchi had exceeded his mandate by showing flexibility on Iran’s support for the so-called “Axis of Resistance”.
This reportedly led to the recall of the negotiating team to Tehran, with backing from figures such as Hossein Taeb.
Shift in power dynamics
Analysts suggest that Vahidi, alongside Mojtaba Khamenei, has now emerged as a central authority in Iran’s decision-making, overshadowing civilian leadership figures like parliamentary leader Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
The shift is seen as significantly limiting the prospects for diplomatic engagement with Western nations, as moderate voices reportedly lack the authority to influence policy.
Implications for ceasefire talks
The developments cast uncertainty over ongoing ceasefire efforts, with no clear timeline for renewed negotiations.
They also challenge claims from Washington that Iran’s leadership had moderated following recent losses of senior officials.
As tensions persist, the future of the fragile ceasefire remains uncertain.
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