Adani issue: Modi will gain or suffer pain?
My suggestion that the Adani issue could help Modi in the 2024 elections may sound preposterous but would you have believed it if someone had told you that the 2002 riots could help Modi in the 2014 elections, or that the Rafale controversy could help Modi in 2019 elections?
Unlike almost all other politicians (barring Naveen Patnaik), Modi has no personal or family interests in his public dealings and has clearly and unambiguously demonstrated in the last 20+ years of his being in power as CM and PM that his integrity is beyond doubt.
So, whenever he was put to test on issues of personal probity, on ever so many occasions, like the Gujarat riots, Rafale deal, etc, he came out completely unscathed, and it was his opponents who had to bite the dust. This is because, the charges against him were cooked up and could not be proved, the source credibility of those who charged him was extremely suspect, and Modi’s credibility in the eyes of the people has been very strong.
And every time he comes out on top, his credibility in the eyes of the people increases, and the credibility of those who attack him plummet. As someone said, Modi is like Raktabīja.[1]
Like in the story of the boy who called the ‘wolf’ many times to fool people, when the wolf really comes (if it ever does), the opposition would have lost all credibility, and so people may ignore them.
It is a truth that Adani‘s growth has been unprecedented, and he’s perceived to be close to Modi. But there is nothing specifically linking the growth of Adani’s business to the crony kind of support by Modi, nor anything to suggest that Modi suppressed any of his competition to help Adani grow. Adani’s success has, to a large extent, been due to his deft strategies, and excellent execution.
Typically, all governments should (and do) facilitate their business and industry to grow in the interest of their states and the nation. Adani owes his growth to almost all the Governments in India, past and present, including Congress, both at the Centre and the states.
There have been many happenings that appear to suggest, at least to a significantly large section of the population, that many international forces, including state and non-state actors at the highest levels, are at work, trying to unseat Modi (and some to even dismantle India). The BBC story (with links to the Chinese) and the way the opposition parties are trying to milk the Hindenburg Research (with the unapologetic claim of being short-sellers of high-value stocks) are only the latest examples.
The strategy of Hindenburg and such short sellers appears to be like a blatant, open, mafia-type hit activity, but a white-collar one at that. Throw a lot of muck at a high-value stock in the form of a research report. If the stock has any perceptions of political connection, all the better, as the opposition would fan the panic.
Much of the presentation in such research reports will anyway be subjective, which can neither be proved nor disproved. Even if only some of the muck sticks, as it will often do, you make a huge killing in the stock market. Even if it fails completely, you lose nothing much as stock prices won’t go up only on the basis of the failed hit job, and so your losses will be close to zero; in fact, chances are very high that at least some muck will stick if not all of it as most typical retail investors would panic and play it safe. Heads you win, tails you don’t lose.
You can create at least a temporary bearish run on the share, to the extent of even choking it to death in the worst case, even if there is no element of truth in the allegations. So, the success of a hit job, by itself, doesn’t necessarily mean any wrongdoing by the company.
Any responsible government should protect honest companies against such dangerous hit jobs, as they can’t afford to lose the value of companies and GDP through such mafia acts. Sure enough, they should let the regulatory agencies do their job based on the allegations quickly and impartially, to give the assurance to the people that genuine allegations will be acted upon.
While the attempt to besmirch Modi appears to have succeeded to a limited extent so far, push-backs are there too. A lot depends on how Adani, the regulators, and the government handle the situation from now on. If BJP and Modi play true to their form and history, the opposition could suffer further erosion of their credibility, and Modi could use the Adani issue to his advantage in the 2024 elections.
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Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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Article appears to be by a person who wants Modi back. That’s his opinion which he is entitled to.
Pappu is being bandied about as an alternative.
In a nation of 1300 million people it is shameful that we don’t have other leaders to govern.