Demography and India’s future
Augustus Comte, the nineteenth-century French philosopher, said: “Demography is destiny.” The future of any civilization depends on its demographic structure. Any significant demographic change can threaten not only the survival of a nation but also its age-old civilization.
Comte’s concerns about demographic shifts have been noted by India’s political leadership. A clear similarity could be seen between Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Independence Day message from the Red Fort and RSS Chief Dr. Mohan Bhagwat’s live interaction with New Delhi’s intelligentsia.[1]
The Prime Minister warned that illegal immigration is an orchestrated attempt to change India’s demographic balance, depriving youth of jobs and endangering women’s safety[2]. Similarly, the RSS chief referred to the experience of East Timor (renamed Timor-Leste in 2002), which seceded from Indonesia due to demographic change, becoming a Christian-majority republic with support from the Vatican and European nations promoting Christianity.
This support was evident when Bishop Carlos Filipe Ximenes Belo, a secessionist leader, and politician Jose Ramos Horta were awarded the 1996 Nobel Peace Prize. Their sudden international prominence revealed the Church’s tactical support for secessionist and proselytizing movements. The Sri Lankan civil war for Tamil Eelam also reflected the Church’s influence in Jaffna and Chennai.
Religious conversions and historical context
The combined efforts of Islamic and Christian groups to alter India’s demography must be seen in this context. Inter-religious marriages and “Love Jihad” are often cited as strategies to increase their numbers. North-East India has already shifted demographically, with Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya, and Manipur becoming Christian-majority states. When Kummanam Rajasekharan was appointed Governor of Mizoram in 2018, the state government openly expressed resistance to having a Hindu in Raj Bhavan.[3][4]
Religious conversions are not new. Aurangzeb imposed jizya (a tax on Hindus) and demolished temples, while Tipu Sultan bluntly gave Hindus the choice of conversion or death. Historian Audrey Truschke attempted to portray Aurangzeb positively, but historical accounts such as those in Prof. R C Majumdar’s History and Culture of the Indian People (Vol. The Mughal Empire) confirm Aurangzeb’s royal decree of April 9, 1669, ordering governors to demolish Hindu temples and schools. Temples like Kashi Vishwanath in Banaras, Keshav Dev in Mathura, and Somnath in Patan were destroyed, as well as 66 temples in Jaipur’s Amber.
Modern proselytization methods
During colonial times, missionaries sought conversions through pressure and inducements. Today, the methods are more advanced. Evangelists and clerics use modern media, including satellite TV channels, to promote conversion and criticize Sanatana Dharma.
Official census data suggests that 80% of Indians are Hindu, but studies such as Religious Demography of India by Dr. J K Bajaj, M D Srinivas, and A P Joshi argue otherwise. They highlight that many converts retain Hindu names to continue benefiting from caste-based government schemes.
Recent developments and legislation
Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami, while introducing the Uttarakhand Freedom of Religion (Amendment) Bill 2025, noted major demographic shifts in his state due to illegal conversions. International funding from West Asia, Europe, and America continues to support these activities. Earlier, aid came in the form of food under CARE programs; today, inducements include jobs, English-medium education, and migration opportunities. Institutions like ESAF (Evangelical Social Action Forum) are active in micro-financing and other programs linked to conversion.
Critics argue that the ultimate agenda of such groups is to reduce the Hindu population while increasing Christian and Muslim numbers. Opposition to the two-child norm and demands to lower the age of consent from 18 to 16 are seen as attempts to accelerate demographic shifts.
Kerala as a case study
Dr. Bajaj’s recent paper Rising Religious Imbalance in the Declining Fertility Regime of Kerala highlights disturbing trends:
- Since 2015, the share of Muslim live births has overtaken Hindu births. In 2019, 44% of births were Muslim and 41% Hindu, despite Hindus forming 54% of the population in the 2011 Census.
- The Muslim share of deaths has remained below 20%, far less than their 27% population share. Hindu deaths, meanwhile, are around 60%, above their population share.
- The Christian share of live births has declined to 14% in 2019, from over 18% in the 2011 Census.
- Muslims’ rising birth share and lower death rates have led to disproportionately high natural growth, with their contribution to Kerala’s population increase rising from 48% in 2008 to 76% in 2019.
- In 2021, Kerala’s total population grew by 80,000, but Muslims added over 100,000, Hindus just 1,000, while Christians declined by 25,000.
- Between 2011 and 2020, natural population growth added 2.6 million people to Kerala, of which 1.6 million were Muslims.
This imbalance has fueled political demands, such as the Muslim Youth League’s call for creating an Eranadu district by splitting Malappuram and Palakkad. This is being seen as a prelude to the demand for a separate Malabar State, incorporating Muslim majority regions in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka.
According to Kerala’s Annual Vital Statistics Report (2008–2021), the Hindu population share declined from 54.73% in 2011 to 52.61% in 2021. Muslims’ share rose from 26.56% to 29.14%, while Christians fell from 18.38% to 17.87%.
Conclusion
India is at a demographic crossroads. History shows that civilizations have collapsed due to uncontrolled demographic shifts. The growing imbalance in states like Kerala raises serious concerns for national stability. As Dr. Bajaj warns, sustaining such demographic trends may be difficult for any functional polity.
The statistics in Kerala showed that the number of Christian children has come down, but this has been compensated for by the unprecedented hike in the number of people getting baptized in other states. The bishops in Kerala are already on a warpath demanding the scrapping of laws against religious conversion in BJP-ruled states.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
Reference:
[1] PM Modi warns illegal immigration threatens India’s demography – Aug 16, 2025, News on Air
[2] PM Modi announces mission to tackle illegal immigration, calls it ‘conspiracy to change demography’ – Aug 15, 2025, DD News
[3] ‘Drive out radical Hindu Governor’: Campaign in Mizoram against Kummanam Rajasekharan – Jun 01, 2018, The News Minute
[4] A Church Organisation and a Political Party Oppose the New Governor of Mizoram – May 28, 2018, News Click
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