Sree Iyer: Namaskar, it is April 13th episode number 140 of Daily Global Insights by Sri and Sree. Here are the main points:
- 1500 “got-aways” per day along the US – Mexico border
- India trumps China to emerge as the largest buyer of Crude from the US
- US and EU have banned the export of critical raw materials needed to manufacture COVID vaccines: Adar Poonawalla
- Ukraine Leader request to speak with Putin ignored
I’m sorry. I forgot to welcome Sridhar Chityalaji to our Channel. Sridharji namaskar and welcome to PGurus Channel.
Sridhar Chityala: Namaskar, Good morning to everybody. Happy Vishu, Happy Ugadi, Happy Gudi Padwa, Happy New Year to everybody.
Sree Iyer: And likewise same from me and Sir, in United States news, 125 migrants are apprehended in two groups in Arizona desert near the border. Migrant got-away are exceeding close 155,000 this year says the Customs and Border Patrol.
The source says that the rate now exceeds 1,500 got-aways per day along the Mexico border.
Now, the feds have opened to migrant centres near the Canadian border to move an increasing number of unaccompanied children out of Customs and Border Patrol custody.
And borders spiralling out of control say a group of Republican congressman who is following Southwest Texas tour after visiting Del Rio Border Patrol Sector. And illegal migrant is going to get $15,600 and in all 290,000 almost 300 K legally illegal migrants are making up 2.1 billion in the taxpayer-funded benefits.
Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala agree to tighten border security sir, your thoughts. This is now getting a little bit out of hand. What are your thoughts, Sir?
Sridhar Chityala: Well, I think we have a major crisis brewing on three fronts. The volumes are skyrocketing, it has not ceased its number one. Second many of these centres which they are identifying to place these people. There are now stories of harassment, stories of abuses Etc. The most worrying part here is more unaccompanied children are being sent across the border. So what consequences that create we don’t know and finally, Mr Andrew Cuomo has Justified relationally we talked about it yesterday the numbers 2.1 billion dollars, $15,600 for family or per person or per unit money being given away o the US tax payers’ dollars. So if this is not in any kind of substantive evidence, I’m not sure what it is around the issues that we are faced at the border.
Sree Iyer: Viewers, if some of you or one of you are Democrat Party organizer or are part of the party, I’d like them to come and revert this with facts. We are presenting you with actual data. We scoured different websites of government and other reputed places to get all our data and we are presenting this data. We’re not making up. We’re not Republican. We are just news providers. I’m sorry to put that disclaimer out there because we need to make absolutely sure that we are looking for the Democrats would justify some of these things. This is just total misuse of money that is being printed by the US government for its own use.
In other news, Sir with your permission I’m going to put a blog show here. First, off we’re going to show what is happening at the Brooklyn Center in Minnesota an officer who shot and killed Daunte Wright during a traffic stop intended to use her Taser instead fired his shotgun. This is what the thing was; this person was trying to run. I’ll let you explain it, sir. I have the graphic on the screen.
Sridhar Chityala: I think basically there was a holdup of the car and the ID was requested on looking at the ID. I think they were two outstanding warrants pending and you know, the driver the alleged person, you know the late. Mr Dante, You know, he got into the car. Yeah got into the car and the police officer is refusing the taser. She tells us the shotgun has taken one shot. So this guy drew away and there was another passenger in the car hitting pedestrians and Etc. So he died on the spot as a result of the accident. It is highly, you know in a volatile situation where we had such problems in Minnesota. This is a very very very unfortunate development that has occurred and that resulted in you know, again arson looting and everything that went on to the extent even president Biden came and made a statement while the incident itself is unwarranted the issue of arson and looting is unacceptable.
Sree Iyer: The National Guard has been called in because the violence and looting have now gone out of control in Minnesota and Sridhar, I have got a picture of the 125 migrants we talked about this just before sometime about there being apprehended into two groups on the Arizona desert near the border. Viewers, if you observe this picture closely you will see that the Border fence is right on your right-hand side. So they were caught right as they were crossing over. Now, the danger here is the most of them are children or unaccompanied minors and this is the DACA program. If I remember correctly DACA and that gives them shelter in the United States. And then what happens is they are trying to cross into the US. Probably now the normal channels are getting tightened and they are trying to get into places where it is a very hostile environment. There’s not much water on this side. It’s desert. It’s got a lot of you know other challenges and some of them actually died of dehydration. So these are some of the concerns so you have anything to add on this one?
Sridhar Chityala: No, I think you have really nicely put the kind of the caveat and the context around data and fact-based, reporting of information, you know, we probably have many Democrats in the audience’s they can look at this data and basically say, yes, you know, this really gives us feedback. We justify all of these things that are going on. So we’ll kind of say yes. These are people who say who think that this is a justifiable setup action. But, if you’re a man with some kind of Common sense why we are blowing the Border apart and spending billions of dollars when we actually have problems piecing, you know in the country. There’s a lot of people who have suffered as a result of covid why there is no response as it relates to that instead you have many people raising questions around this facts are present, 125 people. Then, you have the Detention Center. Now, they opened up the Detention Center in Canada, three centres. Now, they’re giving you data point around the number of open porus parts that’s available where people are crossing and the rate of inflow is now around 1500, this is maybe an official we don’t know what the unofficial number is. So the facts present themselves. The question, therefore, is this something that’s acceptable to the broad US population.
Sree Iyer: I have put up the other pictures are where there is a boat like inflatable raft kind, where they coming. They are pulling them in. This is probably the Rio Grande where they’re crossing. So, viewers when we say that the camps are on the Canadian border most likely they are being bussed from the Mexican border all the way North to the United States Canada border, which is a good 2300 miles a lot of distance that takes about two to three days. Even if you travel non-stop and just take pit stops to you know use the bathroom and have food.
Sridhar Chityala: Indeed. Also, we talked about the Minnesota shooting. Rashida Tlaib today has issued a statement, which is not yet included that they are reporting but she has issued a statement that policing should be stopped. Okay, if it is a choice of the US population to stop policing then it can then you should be put to place. And then the society determines how they will dispense with a crime. It is political statements that generally make this into a volcano rather than I think we reported yesterday that the community and the police should work together and they should be reforms and work together. So the Integrity of society should be preserved. You can’t have one way extreme versus the other Extreme. I think that’s the message that must that that we are trying to get across.
Sree Iyer: Viewers, the life of a police person on the street is not easy anymore. They have to wear what is called a body camera that is capturing everything they do. Once they step out of their vehicle and start talking to whoever is the perceived offender and this tells the whole truth about this officer accidentally discharging a shotgun instead of the maze. I mean, these are all things that they have around. Whatever happened very unfortunate but this response now is something that is also not justified in my opinion at least, sir. I don’t know how you think about it. It is there is no justification for violence, which is what President Biden is also saying.
Also in Knoxville High School in Tennessee, we had shootings yesterday with one dead and an officer injured and the school was secured. Now again, this is another challenge every time there is one thing there is a copycat or you know this last we had other shootings and you see this thing repeat itself over and over. President Biden is trying to bring about gun legislation that is also not going down well. Sir, why can’t the government get a good policy on gun control? I mean, I would like to see that.
Sridhar Chityala: Well, we now have a very divided government that is you have the two branches executive which is the Senate and the legislative branches are now under the complete control of the Democrats. Once they gained ascendancy in the Senate where you have an equal number of seats 50/50 with the tiebreaker being the vice president. Democrats have decided they are going trying to rush through anything they want either through executive order or through breaking the filibuster everything will pass through a simple majority. So, though there is the intent to discuss with the Republicans there seems to be no willingness to concede ground as the Democrats see this as the opportunity for them to get their agenda done. So you’re not going to see any compromise Sreeji. We’re not going to see compromise. We’re not going to see discussions. We’re not going to see a debate in a House and Senate. We’re not going to see an evolution of a policy framework. What you’re going to see is a set of solutions assumed to be the reset from the past and the solutions being rushed through the agenda. The latest one that is going to come through along the same path is the infrastructure.
Sree Iyer: and speaking of infrastructure Biden is trying to defend his 2.65 trillion infra plan saying that he’s not punishing anyone the climate change provisions in the plan will cost average household’s approximately 1,400 dollars per year. As we mentioned, we were the first ones out the gate saying that this infra plan, you know Robbin call to pay Peter is not going to work and they are now you are seeing a lot of corporate saying that this taxation is excessive and many other people are weighing in. Sir, what are your thoughts? Where do you think this is trending now?
Sridhar Chityala: The trend is we’re going to have a solution in what shape the solution is unclear but there is going to be a solution and they’re going to roll the infrastructure plan. There is nothing. The train has left the station. The money is going to flow. We saw already pots of this being apportioned and allocated for various programs. So what we’re going to see here is what exactly the final funding model is going to be an evolutionary compromise. What they going to do is release the money so that the programs which they have in mind that preppy programs which they have in mind, you know can be put to put to practice.
Sree Iyer: Louisiana Republican senator Kennedy has said that Americans are not morons and can see through this infrastructure plan. Biden says he would negotiate the scope of the infrastructure plan and how to pay for it. Sir, it’s essentially all of them are saying the same thing that we will work through this thing and make sure that things will, you know come to a point where it will be released for the general public at large.
Sridhar Chityala: Indeed. The breaking news, this morning is the Democrats, they had a meeting with Mr Biden. Democrats have indicated that they will not be compromising and if they have to go ahead with the plan without the Republicans, they will go ahead.
Sree Iyer: In Global News, Hong Kong Epoch Times printing press was attacked by hammer-wielding intruders. Now you are seeing the real face of Communism as people suspect that these are all people who have been egged on by the CCP regime in Beijing, sir.
Sridhar Chityala: Indeed. This is most unwarranted the two specific incidents that one needs to take cognizance of Epoch Times has been under the radar of for the CCP. So there are Kahlon gang members or Kahlon community members who are being targeted in the United States by the Chinese, you know, some of them are a great number of them are sympathizers to the Epoch Times and the latest incident which is to you know, a day old is people wandering in and you know destroying the property. This will be the intent that the publication doesn’t come out or exerting undue pressure which is to say get out of the way. You’re not going to be here. Otherwise, even the consequences can be disastrous. This is the way the typically the CCP has operated historically within China. There is no voice of reason is every voice of dissent is put out with brute force and you know Uyghur is another kind of an example of what’s happening. So the scenario here is that we saw that as well as the legislative Democratic legislative members in the Hong Kong councils have been silenced. Some of them were put behind bars for sedition and treason. And they now have enacted a bill in Hong Kong when you need police permission for you to contest in Hong Kong a very small percentage 20 to 25% contest in the elections. So effectively police communist state is now coming to force compliant with one-China policy and if you don’t then you will be dealt with as appropriate by the Chinese government and PLA.
Sree Iyer: Sir, I’ll read a few news items and then probably you can weigh in on those.
The US Indo-pacific chief visits Japan as 25 Chinese Jets near Taiwan fly over Taiwan’s airspace. It’s called ADIZ. Chinese military planes have entered the Taiwan ADIZ for the ninth day in a row. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be visiting Taiwan later this year and US Personnel in Taiwan to survey Tank maintenance and training capabilities. Now, we have all these things happening. This is just around Taiwan and we’ve been telling you that this is one of the major flashpoints for a possible World conflict that might emerge out of this. Sridharji, your thoughts on what is going on, in and around Taiwan?
Sridhar Chityala: We have covered this we showed this in a map called Air Defense intrusions on this is redline’s that we had shown in the map which covers, three territorial what you call as the Sovereign boundaries Japan, Taiwan and China in the Taiwan seas. The air defence intrusion shown is a mechanism, whereby all the alerts and triggers potentially prepares each of those countries. If you intrude into Japan, Japan is alerted, if you intrude into Taiwan, Taiwan is alerted that there is an imminent threat and all the mobilization happens automatically as a result. So, nine successive days ADIZ is been intruded so which effectively implies that there is a consistent effort by the Chinese to threaten Taiwan and its act of Independence and act of defence.
Now, two important developments. One is Pompeo visiting, remember Pompeo is an ex-secretary, probably reaffirming his own support and to the Taiwanese government. The other more important thing here is this is not been reported in the mainstream media that there seems to be US personnel on the ground looking at the state of logistical capabilities and preparedness, especially around their tanks etc, because there’s not been a ground battle. There was no necessity for a ground battle in Taiwan. The preparations reflect there is a holistic approach in terms of dealing with this issue. There is also the Indo-Pacific Chief visiting Japan looking at this problem in a much more serious manner. They have been anticipating that this would happen in 2022 or beyond but that timetable seems to be fast accelerating.
Sree Iyer: Viewers will remember the Fukushima radioactive plant getting damaged a few years ago because of, I think, the Cyclone / Tsunami and now Japan has said that it will notify Taiwan if the radioactive water from the Fukushima plant has got into the sea. Now there is a distant definite possibility because it is actually on the coast. The plant itself was very very close to the coast and we knew that it was getting really critical. So the MOFA has said that Japan will notify Taiwan. So what are the implications of this? What can you do? How long does it take before the nuclear radioactive gets absorbed by water in the ocean, sir? Do you have any idea?
Sridhar Chityala: As we speak, apparently the water is now being dispensed into the ocean, this is the breaking news. I’m sure the Taiwanese have been alerted. While Japan will say it has taken safety precautions and measures Taiwan will watch with caution and care because some of those could affect marine life. Some of them could also affect the other ecosystem in the region whether the radioactive water can seep into the mainland. Whether it will all get fully absorbed in the ocean and settle in the ocean bed, we don’t know. Nothing is established. Only time will tell the consequences of this, but it’s a very unwarranted and grave development. Japan may say what am I going to do? I have to get rid of this because the reason is by having it here, it affects my people. So it’s a no-win situation and we will see how this develops.
Sree Iyer: In other news, the Taliban says that it is not ready to meet the Afghan government in Turkey as the US wants and the editorial in Singapore, The Statesman, says that the US military is going to stay in Afghanistan for a long time. So this is something new, especially as an editorial from Singapore newspaper. That is the only newspaper that is mentioning this. Sir, your thoughts on this.
Sridhar Chityala: It is worrisome. There are two reasons why it is worrisome. One is, why is turkey involved? Why does the Taliban need to go to Turkey to meet for a dialogue which the US is directing? The US is directing the Taliban to go to Turkey to meet with the Afghan with arbitration from the Turkish people or the Turkish government on the resolution of powersharing and withdrawal process. Again, this is another news item that you pick up from reporting and analysis from Asia from talking to people, especially, there’s a lot of news that comes out because Singapore is an epicentre Singapore. Hong Kong we can’t speak with anybody and get a piece of sane news. So when you talk to people in the region, you’re getting an amount of news, which is around the ecosystem creating problems, which you don’t hear. We haven’t seen the analysis of this particular news item in the mainstream media in the United States. So overall, in summary, the EU has said that it is going to stay back. It looks like the May 1st time table of the US withdrawal is unlikely.
Sree Iyer: In India related news, India trumps China to emerge as the largest buyer of crude from the US buying on an average 421,000 barrels per day and it is jumped from 287,000 from 2020. That’s a big steep rise, sir!
Sridhar Chityala: This is one of the deals struck by President Trump with India with preferential pricing plus transport embedded, so it remains competitive. Saudi has raised oil prices. Iraq is one of the largest suppliers for India. The United States is slowly inching its way is a reinforcement that the US crude is much sought by India when you look at the ramp-up. The other point is we were again the first people to report that in the bilateral trade between India and United States for some convenient/inconvenient reasons, they were excluding the crude and some reason they were still saying China, China, China. No, the bilateral trade between India and United States is more than $160 billion excluding investments. A significant amount of it is coming from energy. At one point in time, the US was considered to be India’s extended energy security. But India made a policy decision, which is to say what happens if there are political changes, and this goes the other way. So India determined its own course in terms of its energy security policy by keeping the trade and pricing in the front and centre and the United States is delivering at a price to meet the Indian demand, especially when Saudi Arabia is trying to jockey and get the prices up.
Sree Iyer: India is likely to hide the FDI – Foreign Direct Investment limit in the pension sector to 74%. The bill is going to be tabled in the next Parliament session. What is the significance of the 74%, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: The significance of 74% is that when you have higher equity into an Enterprise, then you have greater latitude in terms of what you can do by way of policy and decision-making. If you have 40% and if you have 55% is controlled by the government, usually, all these sectors in India are controlled by the government. Then you have questions around what kind of policy restrictions can be placed and that in turn translates into the types of products that they can manufacture and offer to the market. I see this pension sector as huge. In the next 10 years, I also see the pension shifting from government managed and government-directed pensions to more private pensions run by these Pension funds which is what is happening in the United States. And they do generate returns, very decent returns because most of the pensions once it is advertised it is locked into that price and rate and you had guaranteed minimum income through the course of your life. This is the transformative change they are attempting to do by giving that additional Equity to the foreign companies.
Sree Iyer: L&T construction bags EPC contract for Saudi Arabia’s largest solar plant. That’s impressive. I think Indian engineering has never been Second To None. The fact that L&T has bagged this order is very creditworthy, sir.
Sridhar Chityala: Very creditworthy. It also reaffirms that India is slowly emerging, if not the world, at least in the region as a big big player in alternate energy, especially solar.
Sree Iyer: In the covid update, coronavirus is a long way from being over according to WHO Chief Tedrose. So this is… what should I say? It’s not unexpected, at the same time, how do you see the convergence happening? Because now we know that the rise in cases in Maharashtra is because of a new variant called double mutant and that has found its way into the US also. So how do you see the convergence happening, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: I don’t see convergence, I see normalization as the course of outcome. That’s going to happen the normalization here is that as they begin to learn more and more about vaccines and post-vaccine effects, we’re going to see the evolution of the vaccines and we’re going to see progressive vaccination probably is the norm that we have to deal with this covid pandemic. That will go from the pandemic to normal ailment that we need to dispense with. So, therefore, just like the flu virus in the United States where every year we take the flu virus vaccines, we’re going to have maybe covid vaccines being taken twice a year, or maybe once a year.
Sree Iyer: Sir, the United States and the EU have banned the export of critical raw materials needed to manufacture covid vaccines according to the Serum Institute’s Adar Poonawala. Viewers, if you remember we had a hangout with Lt Gen Ravishankar where we talked about the need for India to develop its own API for the Pharma industry. This is another reflection of that, I think. What are your thoughts, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: There are two components. One is the overall pharmaceutical development and making India one of the big medical hubs. API is essential for that especially around the upstream raw materials and the manufacturing process. So India does not have all of the ingredients. So the API strategy is essential. The second is the tactical need for vaccines. India has produced vaccines. It has the Covishield which is a derivative of AstraZeneca. The Covaxin is domestically manufactured and they are now beginning to try to source and support vaccines such as even Pfizer and Moderna. I think some of these things are now getting a checkpoint because the demand around the world is substantially high. They’re trying to do it locally so it can be dispensed fairly quickly. Having said that, another breaking news, which is, now, the Russian Sputnik has now been approved in an emergency manner and has not received much attention, but apparently, this has worked equally effectively. So India will be manufacturing the Sputnik. So there could be augmentation coming as a result of that. Remember, Remdesivir, which is used as an antibody treatment, India is one of the largest suppliers of Remdesivir. India itself has banned the export of Remdesivir until the domestic needs are satisfied.
Sree Iyer: CDC director says that Michigan should close things down amid coronavirus surge despite mask mandate, capacity limits, and working from home. So how did Michigan get out of control, sir, any idea?
Sridhar Chityala: Well, the same lack of discipline. When I use the word lack of discipline, it’s not as meant with an ill-intended manner, but when you are exposed you get it with or without the vaccine. With a vaccine, you require the antibodies to be produced within your body to combat it and until such time you are vulnerable. So that is the situation. I can say from my own personal example, I took my vaccine on March 10 and March 21st, I was diagnosed with covid and on March 24th, I was hospitalized. So, therefore, this is after my first vaccine, both I and my wife were affected, she less, I more. We got it after the first vaccine, despite vaccination one has to exercise caution. This is what they are trying to advocate and there is a belief among people that when have taken the vaccine they can do anything that they want and that’s where it is causing covid. In Michigan’s case, they have lockdowns, they have restricted movements, they work from home, vaccination is going on and still, there is spurt.
Sree Iyer: Pharma James Sanofi will be investing $638 million in a vaccine production centre in Singapore. Canadian intelligence reader warns that Russia and China are targeting covid-19 research. By this, I think what he means is that there seems to be sabotage on plants that are working on covid-19. Is what I am reading correct, sir?
Sridhar Chityala: They’re all trying to steal information, sir. That’s what is going on. Remember there was a Chinese attempt with a cyber intrusion attack into the Pune facility and I think one of the centres’ was burnt down, but then they confirm nothing lost. But they did confirm on the other country on the other side that there was an attempted cyber-attack to look at and steal IP.
Sree Iyer: In markets news, the Dow slides as FED Powell calls the “Higher Rates” highly unlikely. We also await inflation data and Powell also warns of elevated assets and he also says that he’s not in a position to guarantee that FED will do everything to support the economy as long as it takes time to complete the recovery. I’m trying to pass what he’s trying to say. It beats me. Maybe you can help, sir.
Sridhar Chityala: Number one, he is saying highly unlikely. That means there’s no rate hike in at least in 2021. The word highly unlikely if we go on parsing is a possibility that 2022, they may. If you recall, originally the rate hike was supposed to be passed till 2023. So there’s no 2021 hike. But they would be probably in 2022. The second important point is, he is saying that the FED is organized and geared. It has liquidity and treasury support to continue to pump money into the economy to keep the rates low, which is the first point until the recovery is deep. We have mentioned in several of our DGI programs that he’s talking about unemployment, the long-term deep-seated unemployment as his metric to see the recovery being accomplished rather than what we call aggregate top-level recovery. Now with this influx of illegal migrants into the country what will that do by way of contributing to these unemployment rates? We don’t know. But his claim is that he will support it until such time that the recovery is seen by all members of the community, not only specific sections of the community. He is also saying the low rates with liquidity available you may see certain stock rather than a class of assets having a higher opportunistic price gain and that is something that people need to be cognizant of.
Sree Iyer: Viewers, this brings us to the close of today’s program. I would encourage you to subscribe to our Channel if you already not and also refer us to your family and friends. This is a 15-20 minute real concise summary of what’s happening in and around the world. We are a database. We are not taking any sides. We are very Centrist in terms of being focused on giving the news based on data. Thank you very much Sridharji, and as always, it’s a pleasure having you on our Channel, sir. We’ll see you tomorrow bright and early, Namaskar.
Sridhar Chityala: Thank you. Have a wonderful day. Have a wonderful year. Wish you and all your family members good health and prosperity and best wishes.
Sree Iyer: Thank you, sir.
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