EP 145: 6 more Rafales ship to India, J&J vaccine rethink, China accuses US & Japan & more

Sree Iyer: Namaskar, Welcome to Daily Global Insights edition 145, with Sridhar Chityala and Sree Iyer. Today is Monday the 19th of April 2021. And here are the main points:

• Crime Spreads across many cities in the United States, shots fired at National Guard Members in Minneapolis
• China accuses the US and Japan of ganging upon them
• Six More Rafale Jets to arrive From France in April will raise the number of Rafales available to the Indian Air Force to 20
• J & J Vaccine pause making it tougher for many to get a vaccine shot

Sridharji, your initial thought, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: My initial observations on the J&J vaccine?

Sree Iyer: Yes.

Sridhar Chityala: The decision on the JJ vaccine is a bad decision. I think they trying to swallow words to figure out what they need to say, you know, I’m not a doctor. But 6 out of 7 million or 6 out of 6 million as the case may be are too small the vaccine was working and they should have allowed the vaccine to continue. I mean, they allowed vaccine to continue AstraZeneca when they had, you know, even more, material data. So I think it’s a very bad decision. It’s two things, one is the vaccine itself. Second, it is also creating problems around the supply chain in terms of many countries as well as in the United States.

Sree Iyer: In US News, crime is now spreading across many cities, shots were fired yesterday at National Guard members in Minneapolis and we still don’t have the verdict on the Chauvin case isn’t it, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: We don’t have a verdict. It’s coming. It’s we’re just you know a few days away, but from politicians to be BLM and other fellows have already started to make their noise and make pronouncements that if there is no guilty verdict, then they will be more confrontation and issues in the streets.

Sree Iyer: And see this is not stopping right there, New York Police Department police officers were if it Molotov cocktail and liquid chemicals on their face, I mean, these are also people I mean, how does this make it right?

Sridhar Chityala: Crime has become a permission free exercise today in the United States because we have a Democratic president. We have a democratic collaborative sympathetic media. We have an ecosystem of broadcast channels. We have Tech platforms like social media. Basically sympathetic and turning a blind eye, not raising their voice as to the impact that crime has on people and society. So it’s almost a daily occurrence of this Molotov cocktail. This video is available in the United States Molotov cocktail and chemicals being thrown. The cop standing, a fellow passing by stops at the traffic light opens the door throws the Molotov and then moves. So, it’s you can see that even in Minneapolis. They have ‘national got being fired at so cities have self-selected themselves to be part of this crime that is fast spreading and growing it day in and day out. I don’t want to repeat a number of things that have happened in Manhattan just yesterday and today, over the two days, but I can probably report 10,12 or 14 incidents without actually reading the newspaper. Just living within the neighbourhood in the Manhattan

Sree Iyer: Austin had a shooting today. It has left three people dead and the suspect is still at large and now Maxine Waters congresswoman from, California says that we need to get more confrontational and this is becoming more of a nasty rhetoric sir.

Sridhar Chityala: There’s a bunch of progressive Republicans Schumer included, Maxine Waters included, the squad members included have made very provocative statements and you can see this is a press statement that has been cited and reported by many media. What Maxine Waters is talking about is the Derek Chauvin case that you alluded to which is become more confrontational if there is no verdict. And you know that during the election several videos were paid on the contrary Republicans were blame for the Capitol Hill riots as Ku Klux Klan and etc, etc. And you know, white supremacist and so on. I’m not suggesting that’s not the case which is all I’m saying is that when it goes the other way this open Press statements and open communication to the audiences. It doesn’t augur well for a conducive Society to coexist with differences.

Sree Iyer: President Biden now says that he will raise the US Cap on refugee admissions by May 15th. What about the hundreds or thousands that have already come as if there was no border.

Sridhar Chityala: You want one more week and we have to start slowly repeating the flip-flops that Biden is making. Jake Sullivan Deputy National Security intelligence makes a statement which is to state that we are going to follow Trump. Progressives immediately respond to that by saying hey, is this a statement from the White House? We’re going to talk to the president to immediately lift the cap, what cap? There should not be caps on migration and you know from Alexandria Cortez to Pramila Jaipal issued press statements to that effect, Biden comes back and basically says no, I’m going to lift the Caps by May 15th, you know, I will let you know what the number is. In the meanwhile, while that goes on you have a number of people have come in and more continue to come in and one more or two more centres have been opened up by Biden. one for the children in Texas and another for more people coming into the country. No covid testing, no record checking but just simply coming in. How many of these people are here of joining their respective left out people and how many of them are new entrance? There is no count. ICE, we already reported has been dismantled. They’re just more in watch and learn rather than enforcement.

Sree Iyer: President Bush now enters the immigration debate and offers his opinion on Trump.

Sridhar Chityala: I think President Bush was hint was on the television, he said, are you going are you entering the debate? He said yes, I have to because the reason is I have to let my Republicans know that they are very cautious and very sensitive on the immigrant issues. And hence, you know why he would be entering the fray and he saying is not interfering but his objective is to educate the GOP. On President Trump, he was specifically asked the question he thinks that he was quite irrational and did not have the qualities befitting a leader these are his comments.

Sree Iyer: We had those thoughts about Bush too, so that’s all right. If Red states don’t hang together against WOKE Corporatism. They will all hang separately. Who made this a statement sir and in what context?

Sridhar Chityala: This statement was made by I wish I can name the person and the statement was made by I think if I’m if I’m correct. No, let’s just let’s leave the name. The statement was within the context of what’s going on in the United States. It’s almost like corporations going two ways, you know one I am part of this era. Second, I’m not part of the WOKE set up that seems to be the trend that’s evolving. So the Red States at least they feel should come together and make sure that the Red States isolate this company so that this bad stuff doesn’t kind of creepy in. My observation on this is Corporation should never take political positions. They should stay away from this historically during my four decades-plus in corporate life. We have you know, I worked only in the banking industry in all the banks that I worked for, you know, when we had to make political contributions, we made contributions to both the parties which is allowed within the corporate set up, we never took positions but you know people generally concluded. So, I believe that these WOKE corporations should never get into the political game, especially on elections and election rules and enforcement process Etc. Yes, you have to help the communities but not in the political system.

Sree Iyer: In global news, the fact that Taiwan was in the US-Japan Statement, is that a show of resolve or a diplomatic calculus. So what are your thoughts sirs?

Sridhar Chityala: It’s a combination of both. It’s both a political statement and it’s also a calculated attempt and China is not going to bargain. My view is that there is a confrontation looming on Taiwan who blinks first and you’re going to see some action in Taiwan. China is very very determined, it believes that Taiwan is its. It has got a plan going up to 2035 including railways this and integration and of the trade paths, trade routes Etc., How they would untangle that plan, you know remains a very big question. There is an almost everyday incursion into Taiwan and they back out only it’s a matter of time. Does the world have the capacity and the resolve? They had when it was called quadrilateral, quad. Today, it is all become bilateral. So who is going to coordinate what in the event of a Taiwanese attack by the Chinese one doesn’t know?

Sree Iyer: And China accuses the US and Japan of ganging up on them and the US and Japan are going to invest 4.5 billion in the Next Generation 6G race with China. So, the lines are drawn now, at least the US and Japan are working at the two plus two.

Sridhar Chityala: The US and Japan are two plus two, Japan and Korea are not working together. Japan and India are working together. Japan and Germany are working together. Japan and France are working together. Japan and Australia are working together. Japan and some of the ASEAN nations are working together. So it’s fairly clear, it’s bilateral within that context. I would say that one thing that is very Proximus as a team are Japan, India, and Australia, these three countries have worked together. On the outer periphery, the other countries with them are probably Vietnam and Indonesia. The Philippines is again in hot, cold, hot, cold. Of course, Taiwan is working with both Japan and is also very supportive of the Indian efforts. They are making investments in India, but having said that the US is the big guerilla in the room as far as Taiwan is concerned.

Sree Iyer: Iran names Reaza Karimi as a suspect in Natanz attack, says he has fled the country. So this is the person they are accusing of the nuclear site attack. Who is this person for any idea, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: He is one of the rebels inside. He’s been watched and they believe that he’s the guy. How is he connected to Israel, nobody knows, because first, they accused Israel? Whether he is not connected to Israel, that’s also not known. They seem to have watched him and he seems to have some connection to the attack that happened in the Natanz area. He has fled the country and the Iranians are on the lookout.

Sree Iyer: What are the perils of Biden’s Afghan unconditional withdrawal, sir? What do you think is going to play out in that region?

Sridhar Chityala: It’s going to be open sesame between the Taliban and the Afghani forces. Pakistan has always supported the Taliban Warriors or Taliban gorillas. The universal comment in the US media, at least in the right-wing media, is you know from Bill Maher to Tucker Carlson have opined on Afghanis going to be, the word that is used is the slaughterhouse. If Afghanis were capable of defending themselves, they would have put the Taliban down. But the Taliban has lots of connections and lots of capabilities and they are fearless warriors.

Sree Iyer: Carlson says that we are moving towards some form of a final confrontation with Russia. Why does he feel so, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: He feels that Russia as a giant was never at war with the United States. It seems like this is a 2016 unsettled agenda. If you recall the 2000 election loss by the Democrats, especially Hillary Clinton to President Trump was painted as Russian interference and from 2016 to 2020, right to the four-year period, various investigations were conducted to see whether there was collusion between Mr Trump and Mr Vladimir Putin. So that seems to be the agenda in the four years of the presidency of Trump. Russia was not something that was waging war openly against the United States. We have covered this story around what’s happening in Ukraine? What happened to the US fleet that went through and the ultimatum that Russians have introduced to not enter the Baltic Waters and the Black Sea. Then you have the expulsions that are going on because the Democratic or the present presidential regime intelligence has assessed that they were responsible for the attacks on the solar plant plus they believe that they have some evidence that shows that the Russians attempted to influence the 2020 elections as well.

Sree Iyer: In Indian news, six more Rafale jets are going to be arriving from France making the total number of Rafale Jets available to the Indian Air Force to 20. How many more do you expect, sir? I think 32.

Sridhar Chityala: 32 to 35 is the number. They probably will expand once they have a complete assessment of the situation. But most of them are now deployed in the Himalayan region with back up. They probably will augment it even in the western sector.

Sree Iyer: To support India’s TRIPS at WTO, US senators Sanders and Warren urge Biden. That’s a rarity. These two senators rarely side with India.

Sridhar Chityala: This is the Trade Restricted Intellectual Property Rights – TRIPS. They saying that Indian and South African efforts should be supported by President Biden to relax the pharmaceutical ingredients and APIs that are required for the manufacture of vaccine and broadly supporting the world community. So they are supportive of the UN’s TRIPS effort. So Sanders and Warren who are considered to be social left have supported this program, which is pretty good.

Sree Iyer: Yes. Indian government notifies Rs. 6378 crores have been spent on the PLI scheme to support domestic manufacturing of ACs and LED lights. This is a very good move. I think the PLI scheme seems to have something going for it. Isn’t it, sir?

Sridhar Chityala: It is. I think we said that, notwithstanding the comments, the macro reforms are beginning to slowly make their impact. This project was discussed but this is an endorsement or announcement of a specific Capital provision or specific number being allocated to make it happen. The ACs and LED lights are consumed very heavily. Making it domestically in India without good quality would probably again reduce some of the requirements for importing from overseas.

Sree Iyer: In Make in India, Italy launches, its Mega Food Park in India as these two Nations deepen engagement. So the Make in India also has picked up some momentum, sir.

Sridhar Chityala: They are now going into various sectors, if you recall, agriculture and food processing are one of the sectors especially around logistics, storage, preservation etc. So this is a full-fledged food park. I think it’s coming up in Gujarat. This is the processed and packed food, we all know that it is very renowned for processed and packed foods and again it augurs very well for India.

Sree Iyer: In the global covid update, Global cases are about 141 million, 3 million deaths, recovered 120 million, and active 18 million. India has 275,306 new cases. Deaths 178,793, active 1.930 million and recovered 12.949 million. In Brazil, it is 13.9 million deaths of 371,890 active is 1.183 million and recovered is 12.345 million.

We already talked about the J&J vaccine. Now, people are beginning to say that pausing it is making it difficult for many to get a vaccine shot. So we have to wait and see how this plays out, sir. The pause, do you think it might be taken off the next week? What are your thoughts?

Sridhar Chityala: It’s imminent. I won’t know whether it’s next week, but it’s almost imminent. Dr Fauci has been making many comments. He says perhaps it’s time to weigh in and get the vaccines back into motion and assess. He hasn’t used that language but is using something very close to it when contracted or when asked about it in a number of press interviews. So we could see some eminent moves happening at least in the United States.

Sree Iyer: Suga, as he leaves for Japan requests America for some more Pfizer vaccines. So we’ll have to wait and see if the US accedes to his request.

In markets, the US stopped short of calling Vietnam, Switzerland, and Taiwan currency manipulators. We touched upon Taiwan yesterday, perhaps you can shed a little bit of light on Vietnam and Switzerland – that is a surprise.

Sridhar Chityala: Well, there are essentially three elements. One is, they look at the primary driver of being called a manipulator is trade surplus versus trade deficit. So you find that there is a trade surplus with these three countries. The second, they look at is over a period of two years how many times, at what percentage the currency was influenced or intervened to support the currency by the Central Bank. I think they look at that as the second variable. The third variable that they also look at is that a trend that has tilted that trade adversely one way or the other way. So, Janet Yellen, says based on the internal parameters that treasury uses, all these three countries may meet the criteria of a currency manipulator. They are just alerting and escalating the issues but they’re not making any specific counteractions or adversarial actions to impact these countries, especially Taiwan.

Sree Iyer: Market futures point to gains as the earnings season continues. The US 10-year treasury bill is at 1.59%, the 30-year interest rate a 2.281, an all-time low, Oil at 63.13, Brent at 66.77 a slight uptick, Bitcoin is at 55,773 and Coin is a 344.

With that, our News Bulletin comes to an end. As always, please subscribe to our Channel and do join our Club, and for those of you who don’t have much time, you can watch the news ticker that is going at the bottom of our screen. One cycle takes approximately four to five minutes. So if you just read one cycle, then you can essentially get all the data points at least from the headline point of view. This kind of hangout gives it a little bit more perspective, whatever bur time constraint. Please feel free to subscribe to our Channel spread the word around, talk to your friends and family. Sridharji and I are going to be at this for a long time unless you say ‘no we’re bored of you.’ But we are excited to come every day in the morning and give you the best and you can see we are two-three days ahead some times from the competition.

Sridhar Chityala: Indeed. This is a very good program that we have worked together to create for the audiences and we give a synopsis of activities and events unfolding around the world. Sometimes we are ahead of time in what the world offers to us by way of future events and activities to come. We also cover the markets that give you a perspective, at least at a high level we can view but we do in-depth sessions as well, at least on the US front. So we look forward to your support and look forward to hearing feedback on programs and various topics that we cover.

Sree Iyer: Thank You very much, Sridharji. Namaskar.

Sridhar Chityala: Thank you. Have a wonderful day and a wonderful week.