Message from Kargil Council polls loud and clear; Muslims hate BJP, will go to any extent to ensure its defeat

Factors behind the BJP’s Kargil Council polls loss?

Demography

Muslim-majority Kargil district is part of the highly strategic trans-Himalayan Ladakh. It was created by Sheikh Abdullah of Kashmir-based pro-autonomy and ultra-communal National Conference (NC) in 1979 to puncture and defeat the then-ongoing Buddhist movement in Leh aimed at achieving independence from Kashmir and obtaining Union Territory (UT) status for the cold-desert Ladakh. Its land area is 14,086 sq kms and it consists of Dras, Kargil, Shargole, Shakar-Chiktan, Sankoo, Taisuru, and Zanskar tehsils. Almost all the tehsils, barring Zanskar tehsil and a few other villages, are overwhelmingly Shiite-dominated.

According to the official census 2011 and population data 2023 of Kargil district, Muslims are in the majority. They, according to the 2011 census, constitute 76.87 percent population and the Buddhist population in the district is just 14.29 percent. Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, and Christians constitute 7.34 percent, 0.83 percent, 0.02 percent and 0.43 percent population, respectively. The total population of the district is 140,802.

Elections

The fifth election to the 30-member Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council, Kargil, (LAHDC), which was controlled by the NC and the Congress – the mother of all ills afflicting the nation since its formation in December 1885 at Bombay by AO Hume — was held on October 4, 2023. As many as 77.61 percent of eligible voters exercised their franchise in the 26 segments to elect councilors of their choice. Nine constituencies recorded about 80 percent voting. The Saliskut segment registered the highest 90.07 percent turnout. The lowest 69.03 percent polling was recorded in Cha[1]. The 30-member house consists of 26 elected members and four nominated members. The NC and the Congress had forged a pre-poll alliance to ensure the defeat of the BJP.

NC performance

The counting of votes took place on October 8. The results were almost on the expected lines. The NC, which had fielded 17 candidates and had 10 councilors in the fourth LAHDC Kargil, won 12 seats. It won eleven Muslim-majority segments and one Buddhist-dominated seat. In other words, NC’s eleven Muslim candidates and one Buddhist candidate won the election. The NC got around 24,000 votes.

Earlier on October 3, NC vice-president and former J&K CM, highly radicalized Omar Abdullah, had asserted that the “NC (is) heading towards a clear win in LAHDC Kargil elections”[2].

The poll planks of the NC included the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the erstwhile J&K State into two UTs in August 2019. It also left no stone unturned to create an impression that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP-led government at the Centre plus the BJP as a party were anti-Muslim and their defeat was a must to protect and promote further the interests of the majority community (in this case Muslims).

Significantly, the Muslim leadership in Kargil, like the NC, the Congress, the PDP, and other Kashmiri Muslim parties, had also opposed the 2019 reform scheme and made a common cause with Kashmiri Muslim leadership. It sided with the Kashmiri Muslim leadership, votary of Kashmiri Muslim sub-nationalism, despite the fact that the latter had consistently used the Kargil Muslims as their vote bank and done nothing for them.

Omar’s blistering attack

The poll results emboldened the otherwise desperate and frustrated Omar Abdullah to the extent that he took on the BJP. He said that “the BJP has been dealt a resounding defeat in the LAHDC, Kargil, elections” and that “it should serve as a wake-up call for the saffron party.”

“The BJP was dealt a resounding defeat at the hands of the NC-Congress alliance in Kargil today. In celebration of our strong alliance with the Congress party, the J&K NC is delighted to announce its victory in the LAHDC-Kargil elections…This result sends a message to all forces and parties that have, undemocratically and unconstitutionally, divided the State of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh without the consent of its people…The poll victory belongs to the people of Zanskar, Kargil, and Drass, ‘who have decisively endorsed’ the NC-Congress alliance…It is time (for the BJP) to cease hiding behind the Raj Bhawan and unelected representatives and, instead, acknowledge the people’s rightful desire for a democratically-elected government in J&K…”[3].

Congress performance

The Congress, which had 8 councilors in the fourth LAHDC Kargil and had fielded 22 candidates, also increased its tally from 8 in 2018 to 10 in 2023. It scored a victory in nine Muslim-majority segments and one Buddhist-dominated segment. In other words, the Congress’s nine Muslim candidates and one Buddhist candidate won the election. The Congress got nearly 27,000 votes. The poll planks of the Congress were no different from those of the NC.

Rahul’s victory

As was expected, the divisive Congress thanked the former AICC president, divisive Rahul Gandhi, for the victory of its ten candidates. “This is a direct impact of Rahul Gandhi continuing Bharat Jodo Yatra in Ladakh last month,” said Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh. He also ridiculed the media and said: “The national media will blank it out, but trends coming in show Congress leading convincingly in the elections to the LAHDC, Kargil, with an almost complete wipeout of the BJP”[4].

Nature of NC-Congress alliance

As said, the NC and the Congress had forged a pre-poll alliance. Their stated objective was to keep the BJP out of the LAHDC, Kargil. They forged a pre-poll alliance despite the fact that the BJP had its support base limited only to the Buddhist-dominated pockets. The manner in which they entered into a pre-poll alliance only suggested that they were mortally afraid of the otherwise non-existent BJP in Kargil’s Muslim-majority areas.

Interestingly, the Congress and the NC, which together fought against the BJP, also fought against each other in a number of segments and defeated each other’s candidates. For example, the NC defeated the Congress’s candidates in as many as eight segments and the Congress defeated the NC candidates in four segments.

BJP performance

The BJP, which had one councilor in the fourth LAHDC Kargil, also improved its tally. This time, it won two seats –both Buddhist-dominated. Two BJP-backed candidates also won the election. It lost three seats with a narrow margin of less than 100 votes. It got 10,844 votes – mostly Buddhist votes. In 2018, its vote tally was a paltry 2,588.

The Muslims rejected outright the BJP candidates. Even its Chief Executive Councilor (CEC) candidate and former Chairman of the J&K Legislative Council, Haji Inayat Ali, had to bite the dust. He lost the election to the NC candidate with a margin of 360 votes. He got 962 votes, as against the NC candidate’s vote tally of 1,322. Such was the attitude of the Muslims towards the BJP.

Significantly, J&K UT BJP general secretary (organization), Ashok Koul had, on October 4, 2023, expressed confidence and asserted that “the BJP will win elections.” “We are confident of victory. Our contest is against those parties, which never dispensed justice to the people of Kargil. We will win more than six seats and some BJP-supported independent candidates are also in a position to win the election”[5].

Celebrating defeat

Instead of appreciating the fact that the Muslims had rejected the BJP outright and with contempt, J&K BJP chief Ravinder Raina and ilk celebrated the BJP’s defeat. Reacting to the poll outcome, he said: “In 2018, the BJP had only won one seat, specifically in Zanskar, but today, they have secured two seats, and two BJP-supported independent candidates have also won. ‘The BJP’s standing has improved in Kargil, and our vote percentage has also increased’ compared to previous elections, as we now have two seats compared to just one last year”[6].

Buddhists vote for NC, Congress surprising

It was expected that the Buddhists would reject outright the NC-Congress alliance, but it was not to be. The expectation was based on several facts. One was that the Kargil Muslim leadership had consistently supported Article 370 and opposed tooth and nail the Buddhists’ demand seeking separation of Ladakh from Kashmir and UT status for Ladakh. The other was that the Kargil Muslim leadership had even opposed the idea of establishing two autonomous hill development councils, one each for Leh district and Kargil district. The third important fact was the bitter inter-communal relations, including the socio-economic boycott of Muslims in the Zanskar area for years. The Buddhists’ grouse was that their girls were being abducted and forcibly converted and married. Yet another factor in the religio-political situation in the Kargil district was the Buddhists’ demand seeking district status for the Buddhist-majority Zanskar area.

That many Buddhists voted for the NC and the Congress candidates in two segments only suggested that they had not appreciated the Narendra Modi government’s 2019 historic reform scheme for reasons best known to them and no wonder then that it sprung a big surprise.

Congress-NC’s dangerous assertion

The NC-Congress alliance termed the LAHDC, Kargil, poll results as a “referendum” against the Narendra Modi government’s decision of abrogation of Article 370 and bifurcation of J&K.

“This is definitely a referendum. The people (read Muslims) of Kargil fought on this issue. Our first demand is the restoration of the democratic system in Ladakh. It is up to the government how they will do that – whether they will give a full-fledged statehood to Ladakh. If they cannot do that, then restore our position (with J&K),” said NC president, Kargil, Hanifa Jan. “What the Government of India did was totally wrong. It was a betrayal…They took the decision without consulting us. So, this result is a total referendum against those (2019) decisions,” he also said.

As for the Congress, its leader Issa Ali Shah said that the “people of Kargil have always been against the decision of abrogation of Article 370 and the results signified that.” “There is no role of the BJP in Kargil. People here are against the decision of August 2019. The common people do not want separation. We want to be together with J&K,” he also said[7].

Conclusion

The implications of what the divisive, backward-looking, reactionary, and radical NC-Congress alliance said and suggested are dangerous. Clearly, the need of the nation and exigency of the time is that the Narendra Modi government must segregate Jammu province from Kashmir, grant the segregated Jammu province the full state status, coupled with a Legislative Assembly, and declare Kashmir as a Chandigarh-type UT. The nation just can’t afford elections in Kashmir. For, elections would automatically mean the revival of jihadist forces and the negation of what the Modi government did in 2019 to defeat the forces of disintegration and integrate the region completely into Bharat.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

Reference:

[1] 77.6 pc turnout in peaceful LAHDC Kargil polls, fate of 85 candidates sealed in EVMs – Oct 05, 2023, Daily Excelsior

[2] NC heading towards clear win in LAHDC Kargil elections: Omar – Oct 03, 2023, Daily Excelsior

[3] Wake-up call for BJP Omar Abdullah on NC-Cong alliance’s victory in LAHDC-Kargil polls – Oct 08, 2023, The Week

[4] Direct impact of Rahul Gandhi-led Bharat Jodo Yatra: Congress on victory in Ladakh council polls – Oct 09, 2023, ToI

[5] BJP set to score big win in upcoming LAHDC- Kargil polls: Ashok Koul – Sep 30, 2023, Greater Kashmir

[6] BJP’s graph, vote %age increased in Kargil: Ravinder Raina – Oct 10, 2023, Daily Excelsior

[7] Ladakh poll result a ‘referendum’ of Article 370 scrapping: Congress-NC alliance – Oct 09, 2023, India Today

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