[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]I[/dropcap]f the Bhartiya Janata Party-led alliance loses the battle of Bihar, then Prime minister Narendra Modi’s vitriolic attack on Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) supremo Lalu Yadav would figure as one of the most important contributories to the outcome. Well-placed sources in the Intelligence Bureau told this correspondent that the feedback received from the ground suggests that the PM’s attack on Lalu and Nitish was polarizing their supporters and they were voting with a vengeance to defeat the BJP.
The report has also pointed out that the BJP-led alliance was going to perform poorly in the state and would get less than 100 seats while the “Grand alliance would gain around 145-150 seats. The IB findings are based on the voting trend in the first three phases and the fact that the BJP-led alliance is poised to lag behind decisively in the Muslim-Yadav domain falling within the fifth round. Even if the NDA takes lead in the fourth round where 55 seats are at stake, it is unlikely to make up for the losses suffered in the first three rounds and the bleak scenario it faces in the fifth round.
While the IB is not supposed to apprise the Government of political or electoral developments, it is well-known that at least one third of its work force is devoted to keep an eye on the Opposition and other related developments. This has been going on for decades, and the Modi government has continued with the tradition. So, while on record most ministers of government will dismiss as “rubbish” existence of any such report, but the facts remains that months before the Bihar elections the IB sleuths got into action and began to provide detailed inputs to the government.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]S[/dropcap]ources said that the IB has also provided the government its assessment of every phase of the polls and suggested that it was a close race. It’s different matter that the IB’s finding are mostly based on information gathered by journalist, social activists, and its ill-paid informers at the village and district levels. So, such reports generally lack the professionalism that could lend them degree of authenticity .
Sources said that in several reports from Bihar, the IB cautioned that the PM’s vitriolic attack on Lalu and Nitish was generating sympathy and anger among their voters. These reports pointed out that the Nitish enjoyed high degree of popularity among a cross section of both urban and rural voters, who believe that he genuinely tried to change the face of the state during the last ten years. In such a scenario, the PM;’s barb at him was generating sympathy for him among the voters.
The IB reports have also pointed out that though Lalu Prasad was a convicted politician, but he remains highly popular among Yadavs who feel that if the JD(U)-RJD-Congress combine captures power in the state, their “acceh din” will surely come.
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