Moody’s reduces GDP growth forecast for G-20 nations’ to 2.5% in 2022

Moody's cut the GDP growth forecast for G-20 nations to 2.1% from 2.9% for the year 2023

September 1, 2022

Moody’s forecasts 2.1% growth in 2022, 1.1% in 2023 for G-20 advanced economies

Moody’s Investors Service, the global credit rating agency on Wednesday reduced the 2022 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for G-20 countries to 2.5 percent from 3.1 percent made in May.

Moody’s also cut the GDP growth forecast for the G-20 nations to 2.1 percent from 2.9 percent for the year 2023. For G-20 advanced economies, Moody’s forecasts 2.1 percent growth in 2022, and 1.1 percent in 2023. For G-20 emerging market countries, Moody’s projects 3.3 percent growth in 2022 and 3.8 percent in 2023.

Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President at Moody’s said, “Global monetary and financial conditions will remain fairly restrictive through 2023.”

Bokil added, “Central banks will require decisive proof that high inflation no longer poses a threat to their policy objectives before letting up on their tight monetary stance. The challenging global economic environment of today will be resolved with a sharp and disinflationary slowdown in economic growth.”

According to Moody’s, global trade in durable goods and commodity prices are set to soften. A pullback in goods demand is underway. Supply-chain problems are easing and global auto production is picking up, it said.

Producer price inflation, which is a broad measure of supply-side inflation, appears to have peaked in several countries. Importantly, inflation expectations remain anchored over the medium term. Labour markets remain tight in advanced economies, said Moody’s.

The invasion of Ukraine remains central to the larger macroeconomic picture. While Moody’s believes it is unlikely the conflict will broaden beyond Ukraine’s borders, such an event would mark a significant escalation.

Further, the risk of further energy shocks remains high. As for monetary policy, it will be tricky for central banks to navigate to an equilibrium where inflation falls but economic activity does not slip into a deep recession. China’s low tolerance for COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in its property sector pose risks to its growth outlook.

[With Inputs from IANS]

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