I will not in the least be surprised if the Pakistani army hangs Kulbhushan Jadhav (KJ) if it has not done so already.
The KJ episode has got to be viewed in the background of a bitter turf war going between the military and civilian administration.he men in uniform had always taken a dim view of any effort by the civilian government to improve ties with India. In fact, the erstwhile Pak army chief Gen Raheel Sharif even plotted the ouster of Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif a la Gen Pervez Musharraf, but a timely tip off from India saved the day for Nawaz Sharif. The present Pak army chief Gen Bajwa is no different from his predecessor. In fact, he is a hawk who frowns at any effort to normalise ties between the two neighbors of the Indian subcontinent.
Gen Bajwa is convinced that Sharif is trying to strike a deal with New Delhi behind his back.
India’s strategy has been to encourage democratically-elected governments in Islamabad under the assumption that a civilian govt will be more amenable to the settlement of the Kashmir issue through dialogue. The other major assumption is that a civilian regime will be averse to aiding and abetting terrorism in the Valley. The Kashmir issue is central to the Pak defence establishment and it views with extreme suspicion any effort to improve trade and cultural ties because it feels that India is trying to dilute the core issue of Kashmir. PM Mody sent alarm bells ringing in the Pak arny H.Q. at Rawalpindi when he made an unschedled halt at Lahore to greet PM Sharif on his birthday.
More recently Gen Bajwa was upset when Indian steel manufacturer Jindal met PM Sharif in private in Islamabad. Gen Bajwa is convinced that Sharif is trying to strike a deal with New Delhi behind his back. What a better way to sabotage this than by hanging Jadhav?
Modi must have a planned response ready in the event of the Pak army going ahead with the hanging of Jadhav. By executing Jadhav the Pak army will be able to kill two birds with one stone: humiliate India in front of the world and the other demonstrate that it is the army which is effectively in the driver’s seat.
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2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.