[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]I[/dropcap]n the wake of the Grand Alliance’s stunning victory in Bihar polls, questions are being raised about the findings of an exit poll which gave two thirds majority to the BJP-led NDA. The organization which put out the exit poll on at least four TV channels enjoys a great track record and its findings are treated sacrosanct in the political and media circles. Media grapevine is abuzz with speculation that this particular exit poll findings were put out to stop a freefall in the stock market on Friday and give time to certain investors to pull out their money.
Given its background, its finding created a massive amount of confusion in the political circles. Few people dared to predict a Grand Alliance victory even though most of the TV channels got the trend right, except NDTV which went way off the mark in predicting victory for the NDA. Venerable Prannoy Roy, the man who is considered the gurus of exit polls and opinion polls in India, seems to be losing his sheen. His fifth phase projection about a 10% swing in favour of the BJP in the Muslim-Yadav heartland of Seemanchal, Koshi and Mithilanchal was baffling. The result proved him thoroughly wrong.
[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]B[/dropcap]ut the forecast that spooked the supporters of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav and brought cheers to the BJP backers gave a runaway victory for the NDA, something which few were ready to digest. But the forecaster gave a detailed statement about its methodology and vouched for the accuracy of its prediction, making it difficult to brush it under the carpet.
It is not possible for us to confirm what is being debated in the media circles. But going by the fact this forecaster never got its figure so wrong in the past, it is surprising how it went to the extreme end of predicting a BJP landslide when exactly the opposite happened in reality!
The media talks about punters and some big businessmen having made huge investments in the share market anticipating a BJP victory on the feedback received by this forecaster who was also involved in providing feedback to a political party on various aspects of the poll. On November 8 evening when other exit polls were ready with their figures, this forecaster allegedly manipulated its numbers at the behest of a political party to ensure that the market does not fall on Friday. Had this forecaster not projected a big win for the BJP, the market would have surely seen the sort of dip it witnessed on Monday.
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