2024 Lok Sabha polls & South-Indian politics
If “2024 Lok Sabha polls and South-Indian politics”, this interesting subject is chosen for an in-depth analysis, two facts emerge. First, the 2024 results in these six states in south India are not to be a factor for the formation of the Union government. Second, the verdict in these six will be assorted and split.
Several new faces in six states have emerged since 2019.
The spiritual politics and cine tinsel world influences in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – like Pawan Kalyan in Andhra and Joseph Vijay in Tamil Nadu. Politics in Southern states are not confusing. But it is crystal clear. The 2024 verdict will be split verdict in each one of the six states. No clear sweep for Congress or the BJP. As per the state parties, eight major regional satraps dominate the south politics.
If this is to be the subject matter, then there is a peculiarity. Especially, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Out of six states in the South, the other four are detached from each other. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana though both are Telugu-speaking states, Telangana is too aggressive. Puducherry and Kerala are two too extreme.
Let us first take up Tamil Nadu.
2024 Lok Sabha in this state to spring a major surprise. Dravidian movement is fast fading away. And that could be visible in the 2024 results from Tamil Nadu. For the first time in Tamil Nadu politics, three new faces will determine the winner of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly polls. Who are the new three faces other than routine DMK versus ADMK? M K Stalin or Edapadi Palaniswamy, BJP state president K Annamalai, Seeman Leader Naam Tamizhar Katchi and the third is a mini superstar in the Cine world, Joseph Vijay. These three new faces woo first-time and second-time voters.
These three are bound to snatch away 25-30 percent of voters from the Dravidian parties. Say if not in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, but certainly in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly. In Tamil Nadu politics the vacuum of Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha both tall personalities are felt. Who will fill this slot? Will it be Narendra Modi or BJP a nationalist outlook? Or Mallikarjun Kharge backed by Rahul Gandhi? But certainly, after ADMK walked out of NDA in Tamil Nadu there is an olive branch being dangled by ADMK towards Congress. Such crucial decisions of change of parties in the alliances are not possible. But one has to wait for the results of five states to be out in December’s first week. However, the period from December to February 2024 is just three months, and alliances cannot be manipulated or altered.
What will Andhra Pradesh throw out? This state is very interesting. Jagan Reddy still holds the key. But his political decision to arrest the arch-rival Nara Chandrababu Naidu and the timing was so perfect that Jagan Reddy YSRCP emerged as a powerful party. Short of apologizing to Narendra Modi, the Telugu Desam leader Naidu almost surrendered to BJP and PM Modi. The future of Andhra Pradesh politics is divided into two personalities. One is Narendra Modi and the other is Chandrababu Naidu. Of course, Jagan Reddy is at the center stage. Congress is not a force at all, though it bifurcated the state a decade ago. Congress does have a hold in Telangana, but that space the BJP has been trying to redeem. Frequent visits of BJP top leaders to Telangana to shatter the strong man K Chandrasekhar Rao of Bharatiya Rashtriya Samiti.
Now let us turn to Kerala.
CPM is a dominant force. How would Chief Minister Vijayan handle Congress which is the arch-rival? CPM and Left front want to decimate Congress in Kerala. Rahul Gandhi is an MP from Wayanad in Kerala. 100-year-old CPM stalwart Achudanandan stated that Rahul Gandhi is an “Amul baby“- toy CPM will defeat Rahul Gandhi in 2024. Insiders do share that staunch Congress leaders are defecting towards CPM. Will there be a space for BJP or Narendra Modi in Kerala in 2024, the answer is too doubtful.
Finally, Karnataka is a crucial state for Congress. Will the Chief Minister hold the key to the 2024 Lok Sabha results from Karnataka? The answer is emphatic NO. There are bitter enemies for Chief Minister Siddharamaiah. Four factions in the state Congress are keen to topple Siddharamaiah before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The authority of Kharge and the three Gandhis are under political test in Karnataka. JDS has tactfully aligned with the BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha. But there are efforts by JDS to topple Congress. Whichever side you may look at 28 seats of Lok Sabha from the state of Karnataka is a major cake for any formation in New Delhi. BJP is bound to gain more in Lok sabha due to voter’s dejection of Congress.
In short, to sum it up, either Rahul Gandhi or for that matter Narendra Modi will influence the fragmented politics of Southern India. Yes of course, in the next decade for four major states in south Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh – the only national party that can claim to have a foothold is certainly the Bharatiya Janata Party.
First-time voters who were born and lived in the Narendra Modi era from 2002 – have seen the digital revolution. 2024 is to be decided by digital children’s vote bank, especially from the women folk.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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- Why in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls six South Indian states do not matter? - November 16, 2023
