The Gulf War, US decline, and the rise of a new world order
The war of choice in the Persian Gulf is not just historic but will also usher in generational changes with long-term global implications. This is the first major war after the Second World War that did not involve American allies and partners. The limits of an unchallenged superpower stand exposed, and the king doesn’t know that he’s naked.
Israel’s war
Israel is a small speck among the vast Islamic countries extending from the Iberian Peninsula to the Attari border. Most of these countries have theological hatred towards jews as mandated by their holy book. Most of the hatred is illogical, disconnected from their geopolitics and from any actions of omission or commission by Israel. The Islamic agenda of annihilating the jews is deeply ingrained in the psyche and policies of these countries. Every single conflict is an existential crisis for Israel, and every single crisis is an opportunity for the ummah to annihilate the Jewish nation. The thinking and actions of Israel stem from this reality. While they have invested in cutting-edge technologies, their size and economy don’t guarantee them success over these murderous nations. Israel is thus compelled to drag the USA into its wars. The war against Saddam Hussein’s non-existent Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) by the George Bush administration and the present Gulf War in the Trump regime are both wars of choice and not wars of necessity.
Saddam Hussein was more inclusive and secular amongst all the rulers of the muslim world during his time. Yet, when it came to Israel, he used to fund every Palestinian suicide bomber detonating himself in Israel. Israel had to eliminate him to stop these suicide attacks in their country. Convincing George Bush to fight this Israeli war-making it look like America’s war is a historical lesson in the art of diplomacy. Lo and behold, suicide attacks have stopped after Saddam Hussein was eliminated at the cost of more than seven thousand American servicemen dead and billions of dollars of American taxpayers’ money blown up in Iraq.
The Ayatollah regime of Iran was supported by the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) during the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Iran, being a Shia country, took the help of a Sunni PLO, and both of them jointly shared a common cause against a Jewish Israel. Iran’s gratitude to the PLO, coupled with its extreme, radicalised Islamic ideologies, was a concoction that Israel had to suffer for close to half a century. Iran knew its strengths and weaknesses and evolved strategies to fight asymmetrical and theological wars with a far superior technologically advanced Israel. As part of this strategy, Iran developed several proxies in the region, both Sunni and Shia, indoctrinated, trained, and singularly focused on the Jews. These include Hamas in the Palestinian Territories, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq, and many others. These proxies waged relentless wars with Israel for many decades. After every encounter with Israel, each of these organisations took massive pounding and yet recouped, recovered, reorganised, and rearmed themselves to again start another episode of attacks on Israel. The theological, financial, logistical, material, and political support was provided by Iran. Having faced repeated wars with these proxies, the last straw that broke the Israeli patience was the brutal and barbaric October 7th attack of 2024. While the tactical target was to neutralize Hamas and get back their hostages, Israel decided that they had enough of Iran’s regime and had to strategically do something about it. Israeli diplomacy went into overdrive during the Biden administration to convince them to start operations against Iran. Biden and his administration would have none of this. The US always needed an evil threat in Iran, albeit weakened, to justify its own presence in the Gulf region and to force the oil producers to sell oil only in dollars. Sanctions and diplomatic isolation were the tools of choice for multiple US administrations to ensure that Iran did not grow beyond American ability to control it.
Was it the fear of Epstein files secrets or something else which will be revealed in time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to make Trump break away from the longstanding American policy on Iran and get into a kinetic conflict to change the regime in Iran. The same Trump administration had not allowed Israel to eliminate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the brief 12 day war of Israel-Iran war of June 2025. What convinced Trump to reverse the course in eight months is a mystery only time can unveil. But the diplomatic brilliance of Netanyahu dragged even an anti-war president like Donald Trump into a war of choice wholly for the benefit of Israel.
The king is naked
Before going into any war of consequence, proper planning, including multiple options, off-ramp options, worst-case scenario assessments, defined end goals, SWOT analysis, and, most importantly, cost-benefit analysis, is factored into it. The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the access to the world’s largest petroleum reserves of Venezuela emboldened President Trump to play high-risk games to reinstate American supremacy. This proclivity of risk-taking by Trump was exploited by Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the US got into a war without any planning, without any end goals, without any off-ramp options, nor any alternate plans if their losses and costs go up.
“Excursion” has gone far too long for Trump’s comfort, interest, and attention span. He was lured into this trap by Netanyahu assuring him that “Decapitating” the leadership and “Obliterating” the military assets of Iran would give instant results. George Bush had stood on the deck of an American aircraft carrier announcing the end of major operations in Iraq too prematurely, and forcing the American involvement in Iraq for many more years after that. History is repeating itself now under Trump, “repeatedly claiming that the war has been won even while the Strait of Hormuz is shut”. The short excursion of President Trump has resulted in the death of more than a dozen American servicemen, loss of more than a dozen of their aircraft, loss of more than a dozen expensive Reaper drones, and, most importantly, having to abandon all their bases in the Gulf, which have taken several hits from Iran. “Obliterated Air Defences” have for the first time in the history of combat successfully hit the most advanced stealth fighter, F-35. Even as 90 percent of their missile launches have been shot down, a barrage of missiles crashed into the Dimona nuclear facility in the Negev desert of Israel. Even as the US extinguished 8 to 9 years of patriot missiles within the first 2-3 weeks of the war, “the world’s mightiest army” doesn’t have enough anti-missile batteries to protect itself and its allies in the Gulf. For every single day that the Strait of Hormuz is shut, the king is naked, irrespective of what he claims otherwise.
The shifting sands of history
Even as the US Army establishment and economy are getting stuck in the quicksand of another endless war of choice, all other major powers are watching from the sidelines. Iran’s closest friends, China and Russia, are only providing technical and covert support, but not overt, kinetic, and political support. America’s closest allies, NATO, Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and others have all remained silent and refused to join a war to which they were not invited nor informed. Trump dismantled globalization, alliances, and international rules-based systems, brick by brick, and now has lost all justification when no one is joining him. If the Ukraine war was not America’s war, as per Trump, why should war with Iran be Europe’s war? The logic works both ways.
Americans have realised that their king is naked and now want him to go. Once the boots on the ground start (Does the US have a choice?), more body bags come home, what will happen to the King?
Having seen the limits of the US’s ability to protect international transit routes, businesses and allies, after a significant erosion of trust in America’s abilities, the world will change significantly after the war. Changes that were happening in slow motion before the war are galloping now, thanks to the historical miscalculation of Trump.
Security
Countries that were wholly dependent on American security will look for options to de-risk. The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact, the potential UAE-Bharat defence pact, the Philippines-Indonesia-UAE, and others looking for Brahmos and other non-American weapons are all signs of declining trust in the USA. NATO is going to have a serious introspection as Trump indicated he would ditch NATO in their hour of need. Newer alliances, friendships, groupings, and forums would emerge to de-risk from the USA.
Economy
Trump’s tariff war and destruction of the global order have shaken up the global economic canvas. Several new Free Trade Agreements, changes in supply chain logistics, and breaking away from existing economic models are all going to create a new deglobalised and alternative economic system. The present war in West Asia was also partly to arrest the de-dollarization and to restore the primacy of the US Dollar as the reserve currency. By creating panic and short-term demand for dollars, the US might have won the tactical battle, but it is losing the strategic war. The post-war scenario will convince even the fence sitters to jump ship and to de-risk from Dollars. What would otherwise have taken 5-6 decades will now happen in less than a decade, thanks to Trump. While there is no credible alternative to the dollar as of date, alternatives like the BRICS currency or gold, rare earth minerals, etc., would steadily reduce the dependency on dollars till a credible global alternative emerges.
Energy security
For more than half a century, the world economy has been driven by fossil fuels, and the alternatives could not replace them completely; the fossil fuel lobbies never allowed any technologies that could challenge their importance. The new world order has significantly focused on moving away from excessive dependence on fossil fuels and the blackmail of those few countries that control the production. The world cannot afford to go on with these endless wars and the weaponization of energy. Large consuming countries like China and Bharat have a great opportunity and a duty to work on derisking from the weaponisation of fossil fuel-producing countries. Nuclear, Solar, Wind, Bio, Hydro, Electric, Hydrogen, and many more mass-producible and usable forms of energy will emerge as a result of this disruption.
Conclusion
Traditionally and by nature, Bharat is a status quo country, comfortable in existing systems and ways of things. As the dollar and the American hegemony are significantly eroded and challenged, as the Euro is in shambles, and as China is undergoing severe internal pains, Bharat has a once-in-a-millennium opportunity to fill that gap that is being vacated by the USA. However, to fill that vacant space, a status quo mindset will not help. Following the western economic models and respecting the international rules of engagement more loyally than the countries that founded these rules will not help Bharat to reach its true potential. Bharat should stop copying the West of their economic, political, social, judicial, and moral systems. Bharat should chart out its own systems based on the wisdom and experience of its civilisation. If Bharat misses this opportunity, it may fall by the wayside for someone else to take the position for a long time. It is time for Bharat to unshackle its chains, set its own rules, and blaze the path of leadership, failing which it will end up being a footnote in the progress of humanity. Bharat has the right and duty to tell the king that he is naked.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
For all the latest updates, download PGurus App.
He has visited 30+ sites associated with the Mahabharata and Vedic period, especially Harappan sites in India. Of special interest is traveling along the course of the extinct River Saraswati. Understanding and rediscovering the forgotten Hindu past of Kashmir has been an abiding interest and he has extensively visited kashmir including militancy affected areas.
Giridhar Mamidi is a trained Chartered Accountant with an additional degree in Law. In his long career, he has worked as CFO in Punj Lloyd Saudi Arabia, Unibeton Ready-mix UAE, as group head at ERP Al Faraa group and in DLF Offices and IT Parks Delhi. Prior to that, he has worked as Finance Head in Google India and ADP India.
- The king doesn’t know he’s naked - March 31, 2026
- Bharat should replace GDP with TALLI as a measure of nation’s prosperity - June 30, 2025
- Operation Sindoor crossed many red lines - June 2, 2025
