Arithmetic eclipses chemistry in UP

When your supporters refuse to stand behind you, your strength goes down.

some of the traditional supporters may be voting for anti-BJP parties.
Arithmetic eclipses chemistry in UP

Some of the traditional supporters may be voting for anti- BJP parties. Which means that even chemistry may be going against the ruling party.

In the run-up to the 2014 general poll, Narendra Modi was asked by an interviewer how he would cross the magic figure of 272, as the numbers were not adding up. His answer was simple: this is not an election of arithmetic but of chemistry. He was right: the exceptionally bad two successive governments under the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance had created such a political situation that people began yearning for something better, something new. Modi fitted the bill. The BJP ‘s (Bharatiya Janata Party) dismal performance in the recent by-polls in UP and Bihar, however, has underlined that chemistry is dead, and arithmetic is back in the reckoning.

In fact, being an exact science, arithmetic has always played a role in Indian politics; in exceptional circumstances, however, chemistry eclipses arithmetic. That is, Modi was able to convince a large section of the electorate that he was the right choice; the convincing was so thorough that all the calculations of analysts and experts went awry; the BJP won decisively.

Earlier, it had happened in 1977, when Indira Gandhi and her son Sanjay Gandhi’s tyranny, along with the excesses of the Emergency, cost the grand old party dearly; for the first time after Independence, it lost power. It happened again in 1989 when an ingenuous Rajiv Gandhi lost to the disingenuousness of a crafty V.P. Singh.

Modi regime is essentially socialist in ideology, mindset, and disposition.

But Modi and his man Friday Amit Shah seem to have lost sight of the fact that chemistry is not a regular occurrence; in the last 13 general elections, it played the critical role thrice only. It presupposes a mood: it was anger (with authoritarianism) in 1977, disappointment (with Rajiv’s cluelessness) in 1989, and hope (emanating from Modi’s promises) in 2014.

And without chemistry, arithmetic asserts itself, as it did in UP in particular, with the unexpected tie-up between the arch-rivals SP and BSP. In Bihar, there were no changes: while the Rashtriya Janata Dal retained the Araria Lok Sabha constituency as well as the Jehanabad Assembly seat, the BJP managed to keep the Bhabhua Assembly seat.

It is UP, the largest and most important state, which is sending ominous signals to the saffron party. Less than a year ago, it gave thumbs up to whatever Modi said, did, and stood for. UP’s people even forgave, rather rewarded, him for the disastrous demonetization of high-currency notes he had unilaterally carried out in November 2016. Millions of jobs were lost, the entire ecosystems were hurt or destroyed, and the economy suffered just because the Modi-Shah duo was desperate to win a state election. The duo succeeded in convincing the populace that everything was for the good of the man in the street and, equally importantly, to penalize the corrupt and the rich. The mass feeling is best described by the German word ‘schadenfreude,’ described by as ‘satisfaction or pleasure felt at someone else’s misfortune.’ Not the noblest of feelings indeed, but then there is little noble in politics, certainly in Modi-Shah’s politics.

But the bottom line was that they won handsomely, winning over three-fourths of Assembly seats.

Unfortunately, the ruling dispensation has not been as capable in policy formulation as it is adept in winning elections. It can promise but it can’t deliver; and this is primarily because the Modi regime is essentially socialist in ideology, mindset, and disposition. I have written copiously about its orientation; whether it is the issue of the ownership of public sector banks, labour reforms, or opening up the farm sector, the government is usually in agreement with big state enthusiasts.

When a party’s core constituency shows apathy to polls, it should get worried.

And because the big state needs big money all the time, the government under Modi is always in search of it. The long spell of low crude prices filled the exchequer at the expense of vehicle owners, but the hunger for more never gets quelled. Income-taxpayers have got little relief in the last four years; traders, shopkeepers, and businessmen are tormented by GST. And the government, unresponsive to the concerns of the taxpayer, is just telling them that their money is being used for nation-building. Of course, part of nation-building is also keeping the Vijay Mallyas, the Nirav Modis, and the Mehul Choksis in good humour, but that’s another story.

The upshot is that the salaried class, traders, and shopkeepers—indeed the entire middle class—are suffering because of the unimaginative policies, the callous approach of the government, and the overbearing attitude of taxmen. Come to think of it: though urban areas are usually BJP strongholds, in the Assembly segment of Allahabad North the voter turnout was just 21.65 percent and in Allahabad West it was 31 percent (bother in Phulpur). Similarly, Gorakhpur City saw 33 percent voting.

When a party’s core constituency shows apathy to polls, it should get worried. The BJP, though, is unbothered. In my discussion with party supporters when I point out the middle class’ disillusionment with Modi, they say, “Where else would they [middle-class people] go?”

What the BJP doesn’t realize is that they may not go anywhere—that is, they may just skip voting. Many of them did in UP; a few months ago, a similar pattern was noticeable in Ajmer and Alwar, the two Lok Sabha constituencies in Rajasthan where the BJP was trounced. When your supporters refuse to stand behind you, your strength goes down. This is common sense and simple arithmetic.

Worse, some of the traditional supporters may be voting for anti-BJP parties. Which means that even chemistry may be going against the ruling party.

1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

Ravi Shanker Kapoor
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  1. Breaking news is that Indian Journalists are being paid to write anti BJP, anti Modi, anti Hindu articles by Cambridge Analytica, approx $ 5,000 each,

    Cambridge Analytica was hired by Nehru Gandhi Congress to do so.

    That will explain the author’s motives

  2. you are right, the middle class is disappointed with Modi and BJP. They believed in him and his promises and now feel cheated. They may not vote the oppositon but may use NOTA or prefer to sit home on election days. It is worth to mention that in Gujrat election BJP lost as many as 40 seats because of NOTA. I wish the RSS, BJP, Modi and Saha do a serious ATMA MANTHAN.

  3. Considering the money needed for fighting elections, corruption is inevitable. Any claim of high moral position is bound to backfire. It did in by-elections. BJP needs to move towards a live and let live philosophy if it wishes to win more consistently.

  4. Surely good read but sad to see the comments down. I don’t see the writer under play modi but some examples given are a bit stretched. I am a modi voter, surely he has not done much on a ton of important things which he easily could with his 18*365 days work schedule. In absence of a better option I ll happily vote Modi in 2019 & hope he can fulfil many responsible thoughts, ideas & requests of his staunch support base & save them from being complecant on voting day

  5. What baffles me is Subramaniam Swamy had said in public forums that Rahul Gandhi was arrested at the airport in the USA for possession of drugs and a large amount of cash. Vajpayee got him released after speaking to George Bush at Sonia”s request. Swamy has stated at forums that RaGa is a cocaine addict. Now if this is not true, why has Raga not sued Swamy for defamation of character as this is serious allegations. So it must be true! Can you imagine RaGa becoming the prime minister of India.

  6. Gatbandhan of Jihadis- Nehru Gandhi Congress- Yadavs- Maywatis- Marxists-Bannerjis had only one vision and goal- to keep population of Bharat uneducated, ignorant , poor and as votebanks,

    so that they could loot.

    Mr. Modi has changed that.

    There will be bumps on the road, but the process is irreversble, notwitshanding some Adarsh Patrakars longing for the good old days

  7. Utter BS.

    People voted for Mr, Modi and BJP for hope.

    Mr. Modi has delivered.

    1. Reforms- They are irreversible.

    2. Taxes

    Digitalzation, data mining, GST wil enforce complance.

    For too long have people been dodging taxes, They will not be able to escape the tax net.

    For some reason author thinks that those evading taxes should continue to have a free run

    3) Demonetization- Black money brought to heel. Will it resurface ? Of course it can , and will.

    It is resurfacing.

    The move from a cash based economyi s however irreversible.

    4. Education.

    Availability of education to all is waht wil our nation great, not keeping them uneducated, ignorant and poor.

    That reform cannt be stopped.

  8. उपचुनाव में भाजपा के कार्यकर्ता सरकारी मशीनरी से नाराज़ हैं due to wrong information of anti BHU Mafia and encroachment Abhiyan इसलिए वोटर और देने के लिए नहीं निकला और भाजपा का नुकसान हुआ

  9. If YOGI can bring glory, Modi & Shah should accept and reward him much like Modi was preferred to Advani in 2014.

  10. The comments posted reflect the inner feelings of the commentators. A by election result does not reflect trends for the coming general elections.Past cases, over decades, bear this out. How many of these commentators have actually physically surveyed the electorate? BJP has suffered due to three factors. Firstly complacency.Secondly party ground level workers are dissatsfied as Yogi has refused to allow them to interfere in the administration,specially police. No party worker or elected rep is allowed to boss over ground level govt workers.This is a great departure from past practices when party men, specially SP workers, ran amok and almost destroyed governance. Associated with this is the strict examination regime Yogi has set up. It is now very difficult, if not impossible, to cheat in exams. This has lead to a backlash. Most rural people do not understand the benefits of this as their children hardly study and are used to using unfair means. Cheating was stopped by Kalyan Singh and Mayawati. The SP regimes in between destroyed what Kalyan and Mayawati achieved. Then there is also the caste factor. Probably Mayawati has forgiven the SP the unspeakable humiliation she suffered at the hands of the older SP stalwarts now that its younger generation has taken over. Anyway there is more than a year left for the General election. A year is too long in politics.

  11. Excellent article sir.Hit on the nail. Chor Modis and Shahs miserably failed this country .These ppl are at height of arrogance to replace British as Most Arrogant ass holes ever !!!

  12. in Gorakhpur and Phulpur both your arguments reasons failed (Arithmetic and Chemistry) and perception won.Due to infighting against YOGI and a gang of ministers led by KP Maurya and Manoj Sinha propped up by Amit Shah to reduce YOGI stature so that he will not be challenge to Modi in 2019 or 2024 and YOGI will not revolt or may be removed to his Math in Gorakhpur But Yogi foiled their plan.YOGI jee wanted to nominate other 2 leaders from both seats but High command wanted to teach YOGI lesson so the eventually lost both seats only for 9 months.It is now 9 months election due and SP will think that wave of MODI vanished in UP.MODI also erred by falling prey to some dream sequence spreda before his eyes that all is not well with YOGI.But what YOGI did in last 6 months MODI ought appreciate na dcommends him.He worked to bring BJP from 64 seats to 99 seats in Gujarat.Hr worked to finish CPM in Tripura and bring BJP in power.Now he wis working as HINDU saint in Karnataka to remove congress hegemony in Karnataka a hindu majority state.YOGI also went to Kerlala where BJP is zero.So the arithmetic and chemistry wont work in UP but peple perception work.Now people want a peaceful atmosphre all over UP where they can walk roam drive in night without any fear of highway robbery Rape and Murder by MUSLIMS dons and mafia gangs.THEY are either in Jail or killed cognito or incognito.


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