“Earth Almost Entirely in Red”: Scientists Warn “Super-Duper” El Niño Is Intensifying, Could Last Into 2027

Viral maps show Earth "almost entirely in the red" as a very strong El Niño releases heat from the Pacific

October 8, 2026

🌡️ "Earth almost entirely in red": what the intensifying El Niño means for global weather

Pacific Heat Release: What a Very Strong El Niño Means for Global Weather

A strengthening El Niño is continuing to intensify, with new forecasts suggesting the climate phenomenon could shape global weather well into next year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and climate scientists.

The WMO expects the event to keep strengthening and peak around December. It said there is a near-100 per cent chance El Niño will persist through February 2027, adding that this was the first time one of its El Niño/La Niña updates had been so unequivocal, reflecting strong agreement across its network of forecasting centres. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño is “firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” noting that it does not create new heat but releases heat that has accumulated beneath the ocean surface.

What the data show

The Niño 3.4 index, a key measure of Pacific sea surface temperatures, has risen from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C in August. The central and eastern tropical Pacific is expected to reach around 3.7°C above normal during October to December, according to one report citing the WMO. The WMO said it could become one of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950, and that it will compound the effects of human-caused climate change, potentially making existing temperature and weather extremes more severe.

The WMO’s multi-model forecasts for September to November indicated an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, along with a classic atmospheric rainfall response to the Pacific warming. Combined with warm oceans, experts said, the event could bring heat extremes, floods and droughts in different regions for months to come.

The “red map” and the “super-duper” label

The phrase in the headlines comes from US meteorologist Ryan Maue, who posted climate maps on X on October 6 saying the Earth was “almost entirely in the red,” and who agreed with the WMO that El Niño would last through February 2027. Climate commentator Leon Simons called it a “super-duper El Niño,” while climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said the event “continues its climb into uncharted waters.”

“Super El Niño” is an informal term, not an official scientific category. Earlier this year, Euronews noted the label is not used by NOAA, which defines a “strong” El Niño as one with a peak Oceanic Niño Index of 1.5°C or higher, and that some scientists had cautioned against hype around the term. The WMO itself uses “very strong” to describe the current event.

Impact varies by region

The WMO has stressed that a very strong El Niño does not mean the same impacts everywhere, and that effects on rainfall and temperature differ by region. Sea surface temperatures are expected to begin easing slowly in early 2027, though El Niño conditions are forecast to persist into March.

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