Weak monsoon outlook raises concerns for agriculture, reservoirs and food inflation
India is likely to witness a below-average southwest monsoon in 2026, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) sharply revising its rainfall forecast downward amid growing concerns over developing El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
According to the latest forecast issued by the IMD, the country is expected to receive only 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, placing the outlook firmly in the “below normal” category.
The revised projection marks a further downgrade from the IMD’s earlier April estimate of 92% of LPA rainfall.
Officials from the Ministry of Earth Sciences said the weaker monsoon outlook is primarily linked to the anticipated emergence of El Nino conditions in the Equatorial Pacific — a climate pattern historically associated with deficient rainfall over India.
Dr M Ravichandran stated that the average monsoon rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season is now expected to remain significantly below normal.
The IMD also warned that several key regions across the country are likely to receive deficient rainfall.
While Northwest India is expected to witness near-normal rainfall, Central India, South Peninsular India, Northeast India and the crucial monsoon core zone are all projected to experience below-normal precipitation.
The monsoon core zone — which includes several rain-fed agricultural belts heavily dependent on seasonal rains — is expected to receive less than 94% of the LPA, raising concerns about crop productivity and water stress.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said June itself is likely to record below-normal rainfall across much of the country, with temperatures expected to remain above normal in several regions.
Meteorologists say the possible emergence of a strong or “super” El Nino event later in the season could further weaken rainfall activity between July and September.
El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, disrupting atmospheric circulation patterns and weakening the Indian monsoon system.
A deficient monsoon could have wide-ranging economic consequences for India, where agriculture remains heavily dependent on rainfall.
Experts warn that weaker rains may affect sowing and yields of major rain-fed crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds while also impacting reservoir levels, drinking water availability and hydroelectric power generation.
Lower agricultural output could additionally trigger food inflation and place pressure on rural incomes.
The forecast has revived memories of previous drought-like monsoon years that severely strained India’s farming sector and water resources.
Despite the concerns, the IMD noted that conditions remain favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala next week, offering some initial relief.
Officials said the evolving ENSO situation will continue to be closely monitored and updated forecasts will be issued in the coming weeks.
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