In 2024, how should the BJP approach the Lok Sabha elections in TN
The Lok Sabha (LS) elections from Tamil Nadu (TN) state are less than 3 weeks away.
Opinion polls conducted by various popular pollsters and psephologists of varying levels of credibility, present differing projections of vote shares and seat shares for different political alignments in TN.
Analysts conducting micro-level constituency-wise analyses also offer insights into which candidates appear to be leading in each constituency.
However, there seems to be a general consensus that the DMK alliance is likely to secure 30-40 seats, the BJP alliance 0-8 seats (including Pondicherry), and the ADMK alliance 0-8 seats (primarily due to its ‘Two Leaves’ symbol).
But, is there a way for the NDA led by BJP to generate momentum in the next 2-3 weeks with a strategic narrative and secure 33% + of the vote share in TN, thereby maximizing its seat allocation to 10+ seats?
While this is a formidable task, I believe there is at least one such strategy with significant potential to achieve this goal, provided concerted efforts are made now with a sharp focus.
You may present 10 reasons to vote for BJP, and yet I might recall none; you may provide 3 reasons for better memorability, and I may remember one that resonates with me; but, if you offer just one compelling reason, most voters are likely to remember it. In the end, it’s about memorability and persuasiveness that matter.
In hotly contested elections, amidst the multitude of arguments for and against each party, voters would often lack clarity. Consequently, they may resort to voting the way they have always done, impulsively.
The crux of my proposed strategy is this: Can we distill the entire narrative of the 2024 TN LS election into a single question, with each voter’s response determining their choice at the polling booth, and at least 35% of voters (if not more) favoring BJP and NDA?
What could be that pivotal question to be raised by the BJP that could reshape the narrative?
“You have consistently voted for candidates from the DMK or ADMK alliances in the past 10 years during the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 and 2019. What tangible benefits have they brought to you through the Lok Sabha in the last 10 years? Just think.
Please remember, that we are not discussing the actions and failures of DMK/ ADMK at the state level and in the TN Assembly; that discussion will happen in 2026.
Let’s even go back to the previous Lok Sabha elections in 2004 and 2009. What have the successful DMK and ADMK candidates done for your constituency or state through the Lok Sabha that has done you any good?
All opinion polls unequivocally indicate that the NDA led by BJP will secure 300-400 seats and Modi will be PM again. Regardless of whether you vote for DMK or ADMK, your MPs will merely sit in opposition and, at best, engage in empty rhetoric or walk out.
As always, DMK and ADMK MPs won’t deliver any new initiatives from the Centre or aid in implementing Central government schemes in your constituency or across TN.
However, if you elect BJP and NDA candidates, they can articulate your concerns in the Lok Sabha, execute existing Central government schemes in your constituency and throughout TN, and lobby for new initiatives benefiting your constituency and the state, successfully.
In my personal capacity and in the name of Modi ji, I give you this guarantee, on behalf of an NDA candidate in your constituency.
“Do you want to use your vote for your constituency’s and state’s good or waste it?”
While certain aspects of this strategy have been previously articulated by Annamalai and BJP in their communication so far, which was the right thing to do, this specific strategy focusing only on this must be implemented in the last leg of the elections.
With limited traction for other factions within ADMK led by OPS, TTV Dinakaran, and Sasikala, and lacking a compelling narrative from BJP, a considerable percentage of undecided voters appear to be drifting towards ADMK. This should be stopped.
I had explained in my previous articles [1], [2], [3], and [4] that there are die-hard supporters of every main party, viz, DMK (about 20%), ADMK led by EPS (15%), BJP (10%) and NTK (Naam Thamilar Katchi under the leadership of Seeman, 5%). All these add up to about 50%. These specific numbers are not important; you can substitute your own numbers.
There are another 15% potential voters for DMK, 10% for ADMK, 5% for BJP, and 5% for Seeman, who are not die-hard supporters and may listen to strong reasons from any side. They are also tactical voters who may want to use their votes to defeat DMK, ADMK, BJP, or Seeman.
The rest of the 15% of voters haven’t made up their minds yet, and are still thinking.
So, on paper, the BJP has the opportunity to influence the views of about 50% of voters.
If BJP can win the trust of over 30% of these voters, totaling about 43%+ vote share for NDA, it has a good chance of winning 20+ seats, and also coming on top in vote share. While this may seem unrealistic, the proposed strategy at least offers a glimmer of hope to achieve it.
If BJP can win the trust of over 20% of these voters, adding up to about 33%+ vote share for NDA, it has a good chance of winning 10-15 seats, coming second in vote share. This is feasible.
If it can win only 10% of these votes, resulting in about 23%+ vote share for NDA, assuming just 15% of the rest of the votes go to ADMK, taking ADMK’s tally to about 33% votes, BJP can win at best 0-5 seats and will be a distant third.
Of course, we are able to dream about such a scenario unthinkable so far, only because of the phenomenal work done by Annamalai. I’m only saying that the last mile strategy may have to be to focus on just one but different question, to convert the yet unconverted.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
Reference:
[1] Can BJP win TN 2024 elections, if it fights alone? – Mar 31, 2023, PGurus.com
[2] How BJP can become an alternative to DMK in Tamil Nadu – Aug 18, 2022, PGurus.com
[3] Will Annamalai defeat DMK in the 2024 LS elections? – Jan 17, 2023, PGurus.com
[4] How TN BJP can come to No. 1 or No. 2 in 2024 LS polls – Jan 11, 2024, PGurus.com
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If my circle of acquaintances is any indication, most people in TN don’t know the difference between LS and Assembly polls. So, my prediction is that DMK will get 38-40 (including the one seat in Pondicherry). I’ll be glad if I am proved wrong but am not hopeful.