The big challenges for BJP in Tamil Nadu ahead of LS polls
Annamalai has propelled the Tamil Nadu (TN) BJP to unprecedented heights. The crucial question now is whether the BJP can secure one of the top two positions in TN in the 2024 elections.
The surge from a 2-5% to an estimated 15% vote share now, as indicated by various opinion polls, demonstrates Annamalai’s exceptional leadership in the competitive TN political landscape. The absence of an alliance with ADMK may, in fact, work to BJP’s advantage in the long run.
With the right approach, dedication, and hard work, BJP has the opportunity to become the No. 1 or No. 2 party in TN, a position it couldn’t have dreamt of ever before.
However, it’s essential to recognize that the estimated 15% vote share for BJP is fragile. In our first-past-the-post electoral system, voters tend to shift strategically when casting their ballots.
If voters perceive that their preferred party is in the No. 3 position or beyond and has no chance of winning (No. 1) or becoming the challenger (No. 2), a significant percentage of such voters may switch their votes to the party or alliance with a better chance of defeating their least favored party, even if it means supporting a less preferred option.
This strategic shift in voting could cost the BJP a substantial portion of its 15% vote share, reducing it to 5-10%. This shift would hinder the BJP’s ability to establish itself as a potential No. 1 or No. 2 in future elections.
Currently, BJP aims to position itself as the alternative to DMK, rightly so, but it ranks behind ADMK in vote share and perception, as clearly revealed in many unbiased opinion polls.
To avoid being relegated to third place in voters’ minds, the BJP should find ways to present itself as the alternative to both DMK and ADMK, grouping them together as the failed parties, while positioning itself as the alternative, relegating ADMK (or DMK) to the third position.
In a landscape where corruption has become normalized, the BJP must communicate better perceptional reasons as below, for voters to support it:
- The 2024 LS elections are for the Lok Sabha, where DMK is not competing for the PM position, and its ally, Congress, is losing nationally. Voting for BJP under Modi’s leadership alone will benefit TN.
- DMK’s credibility is eroding due to corruption, mismanagement, and lack of leadership. BJP advocates defeating DMK in the 2024 elections.
- ADMK lacks strong leadership after MGR and Jaya, isn’t part of any national alliance, and is hence not relevant in the 2024 elections. Voting for ADMK in Lok Sabha elections would yield no benefit to TN.
- If TN elects BJP MPs, TN would gain additional Central ministers, bringing voice and projects to TN.
- After 50 years of having tried only DMK and ADMK, voters should opt for BJP for a change.
BJP needs to secure the support of both committed and potential voters. DMK’s 20% die-hard supporters, ADMK’s 15% die-hard supporters, and NTK’s 5% die-hard supporters may not shift their votes. BJP’s 5% dedicated supporters and the additional 10% supporters who are inclined to vote for it if it could become the No. 1 or No. 2 presents an opportunity.
Parties willing to ally with the BJP offer a combined 10% vote share.
The remaining 25-30% of voters are either undecided or tactical.
Retaining old NDA allies (particularly the late Captain Vijayakanth’s DMDK which has been gaining people’s sympathy as is evident from many opinion polls), is crucial. BJP can communicate the benefits of aligning with it to its former allies, as it is almost certain to come to power, and DMDK has a better relationship with BJP than with DMK and ADMK,
This means, only counting the committed voters, the DMK alliance is likely to get about 25% votes and ADMK about 15% votes.
There are about 25-30% voters not fully committed to any party, or tactical voters. Left to chance, 15% of them may vote for DMK, 10% for ADMK, and the other 5% may vote for any other options including BJP and Seeman.
The mildly committed voters of BJP and its allies may perceive ADMK as the likely No. 2 and shift their votes to ADMK, to defeat DMK. This is a big threat to the BJP.
This will mean DMK would get about 40-45% votes or more, ADMK 30% votes, BJP 10-15% votes and Seeman about 5-8% votes. These numbers are also reflected in the opinion polls.
In order to become the No. 2 or even the No. 1 party in TN, BJP should make its own and its allies’ mildly-committed voters to vote for NDA and get also a significant share of the 25-30% non-committed voters and tactical voters.
How can the BJP accomplish this?
Annamalai has done a terrific job so far, something unimaginable before he came to head TN BJP. He has been particularly focusing on the local issues in each constituency (during his yatra), its strengths and specialties, and the failure of DMK to fulfill its promises to the constituency.
With only about 4 months to go for the LS polls, TN BJP has a big challenge ahead. Opinion polls appear to suggest that BJP runs the risk of losing its potential voters to DMK and ADMK due to tactical voting by the uncommitted voters, as it is not yet perceived to be in the No. 1 or No. 2 position, despite the phenomenal effort by TN BJP under the leadership of Annamalai.
As things stand at present in TN, BJP could get about 10-15% votes, and 0-2 seats, as per the latest opinion polls aired by Times Now and India Today, and other local psephologists.
Since DMK and ADMK are etched in the minds of TN voters as the main contenders, this should be changed as quickly as possible.
If the BJP should become a force to reckon with in the future and jump above to the No. 1 or No. 2 position, it should make voters perceive that the contest is between DMK (plus allies) and BJP (plus allies), at least in the Lok Sabha polls.
In my view, the key to this strategy, in addition to whatever it is doing and my suggestions above, BJP should have a quick constituency-wise strategy based on qualitative market research, specifically FGI (Focus Group Interviews), conducted in the order of the prospective constituencies, from the highest to the lowest.
In the FGI, it should find out from the voters of each constituency, separately, what BJP and its NDA allies should do to make the voters vote for NDA in the forthcoming elections, in preference to ADMK (and even DMK). It can use the specific expectation of the voters in its communication constituency-wise, as part of the manifesto for the Constituency.
There is just about enough time to do the FGIs, if BJP starts the process immediately. After the FGIs are analyzed. BJP can also try to identify the simple colloquial Tamil word or phrase it should own in the TN voters’ minds, for larger strategizing statewide communication. If there are some concerns in the minds of the people of TN, they can also be identified exactly and addressed.
PM Modi’s communication should emphasize the importance of cooperation of the state’s representatives in development and the advantages of having BJP MPs.
And in the long term, beyond the 2024 and 2026 elections. BJP’s best strategy for coming to power in TN and remaining at the top for a long is to endear itself to SC, and ST communities who have not been given any meaningful political space in TN by any party, which is why VCK and NTK have gained their large scale support. This will add to the BJP’s support phenomenally. But this group will need longer-term action plans.
RSS has been funding and running Banwasi Sewa Ashram in Mirzapur, Chattisgarh for 4 decades and this has played an important role in preventing religious conversion of STs in that region, and in BJP’s win in state elections, including its latest win in Chattisgarh. BJP should try to replicate this model across the country, esp in TN.
For the TN BJP, the time to act is now.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
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