Is HD Kumaraswamy set to meet his father’s fate?

The longevity of the new alliance is already being speculated

Is HD Kumaraswamy set to meet his father’s fate?
Is HD Kumaraswamy set to meet his father’s fate?

How soon will the axe fall on HD Kumaraswamy — once he becomes the new Chief Minister of the Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress regime — is to be seen

In the evening of May 19, Congress was celebrating on the streets. It would appear that the party had achieved the rare feat (by its standards) of winning an election. But no, it was rejoicing over the resignation of Chief Minister of Karnataka and senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader BS Yeddyurappa ahead of the trust vote. It had paved the way for the Congress to return to power in the State despite being battered in the Assembly election. It didn’t matter to the leaders of the Congress that they were doing so by mocking the public mandate. They were happy that they would be pulling the strings once again, this time by propping up a Government led by a Chief Minister whose own party, the Janata Dal (Secular), has less than 40 seats in a House of 224.

The desire to somehow keep the BJP away from power eventually triumphed over fair play and respect for the people’s mandate

It is a situation the Congress loves. It had made Charan Singh the Prime Minister after engineering the downfall of the Janata Party regime, and then unceremoniously pulled him down. It had similarly plotted to the fall of the Chandra Shekhar Government in New Delhi. It had caused the demise of the IK Gujral dispensation after helping him to the post of the Prime Minister. Indeed, the Congress had also humiliated Deve Gowda, the Janata Dal (Secular) supremo today, in a similar fashion. How soon will the axe fall on HD Kumaraswamy — once he becomes the new Chief Minister of the Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress regime — is to be seen.

The strange fact is that Deve Gowda’s party, despite being aware of the Congress’s track record, has fallen for the bait. Within hours of the election result, which dealt a resounding defeat for the Congress and left the Janata Dal (Secular) holding on to its limited bastion in the State and placed it at a distant third, Deve Gowda succumbed to the charms of the Congress. It allowed itself to be persuaded by the Congress’s offer of chief ministership to HD Kumaraswamy, the party supremo’s son. The two parties came together and by virtue of the combined numbers, claimed to represent the collective will of the people of the State. That they were lying is something they were fully aware of. This was not the collective will of the people because both the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) had contested against each other.

The desire to somehow keep the BJP away from power eventually triumphed over fair play and respect for the people’s mandate. The Congress’s desperation was at least understandable: The electoral setback in Karnataka had come as a massive humiliation for the party, which had been losing one State after another since 2014. Thus it had to retain Karnataka by hook or by crook. But there was no compelling reason for the Janata Dal (Secular) to join hands with the loser. Since the BJP had fallen just eight seats short of the halfway mark, Deve Gowda’s party could have extended support to the BJP which had secured the mandate of the voters at least more comprehensively than the Congress had. There would have been no public outrage over the decision. But Kumaraswamy would not have been the Chief Minister — he would have got the deputy chief ministership position. Clearly then, what made the Janata Dal (Secular) go with the Congress was the lure of chief ministership.

Congress remains a loser in the eyes of the public and is still electorally suspect as far as various regional satraps are concerned.

The longevity of the new alliance is already being speculated. The coalition is unnatural and full of contradictions. Frictions are bound to occur sooner than later, and there is every possibility that the Congress will end up pulling the rug from under Kumaraswamy’s feet. The JD (S) must also factor in the coming Lok Sabha election. Will the people of Karnataka not take this manipulation into account? But then neither Deve Gowda’s party nor the Congress is presently concerned by such possibilities. They wanted to thwart the BJP, and they have managed it for now.

The narrative of the success of a ‘united opposition’ in taking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP, which will surely be peddled now, does not apply to the Karnataka development. Here, the parties united after the election result. Perhaps this is how the non-NDA parties view the future: Fight separately and even against one another, and then come together after the outcome is known, to deny power to the BJP. Whatever the case may be, the Congress is certainly not in a pole position even after the Karnataka coup. It remains a loser in the eyes of the public and is still electorally suspect as far as various regional satraps are concerned. But then, it has been reduced to such a state that the best it can hope for is to shine in reflected glory.


Note:
1. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

Rajesh Singh is a Delhi-based senior political commentator and public affairs analyst
Rajesh Singh
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17 COMMENTS

  1. Devagowdaji became PM with some 35 seats or so. Now he says his son is ready to take on the PM post post 2019. He may win maybe 5 or 7 seats when Parliament elections take place. See the avaricious father/son duo.

  2. It is a mediocre argument and the writer of the article has used very little of his grey matter and more of his heart.Look at it this way.Kumaraswamy knows at the outset that he can never become state chief minister because his JDS party has very little clout apart from erstwhile Mysore karnataka.So his best chance is now.In the case of congis,they are almost wiped out of Indian map and they are now clutching at straws.Whatever be the differences,both JDS and congis know that they need to be together.When they decided to form alliance,BJP should have bowed to this ,stand back instead of indulging in a natak which finally only ended in a slap on the face.There is more than 50% chance this alliance can survive next 5 years.A journalist should concentrate on writing what is happening and why rather than what should have happened.

  3. First let HDK pass the floor test! The Political Astro Anirudh Mishra strongly reiterates BJP will form the Govt. In Karnataka. He had been right so far with his predictions.

  4. Congress today is in position to win- so it chose the second option that BJP shouldn’t win. Congress has achieved the second best. From BJP’s view point- it didn’t loose Karnataka on 15th May, it lost it on 18th May. There was no need for BJP to lay claim. It should have allowed the Congress- JDS combine to take power and wait for the right opportunity to bring it down.

  5. It is only Pappu can glory in stating 76 is bigger than 106 !!!
    Khangress & JD(S) have put cowdung on karnataka voters.
    Surely the Karnataka voters are disappointed & will act to “wipe off” Khangress & JD(S) in upcoming general elections.
    What happened on Saturday i.e. 19-May-2018, is a saddest moment in Indian history.
    38 winning over 106 !!!
    It is a lesson learnt for all Hindus to come together & vote together & wipe out Khangress & JD(S)
    Opposition may talk to incite BJP, suggest hold the inner for a while & return it with fire during the general elections.

  6. Real reason for this mess is the laziness of Bangaloreans, who cheer at IPLs, for not voting in numbers. While Congress are masters in creating defections , BJP is not smart in this art , as they could not get hold of 6 MLAs inspite of being in Power in centre.It looks Naidu, KC Rao and Congo’s are going to have a gala time at swearing ceremony making Telugu people biggest fools .

  7. Rather unpleasant to see the congress jds duo in power. Some real lessons to learn is being glossed over by mindless emotions for bjp.
    1 minus the exhaustive campaign by shah-duo and the usual help from mani Shanker and likes the state bjp unit’s effort could not have secured any more than 75-80 seats. This goes to prove that they had not got the mind share of people as wel as they should have. Very similar to the local unit in Gujarat who despite inheriting a perfect machinery slept over for 4 years and woke up late. This needs correction and I can tell u a guaranteed repeat in Rajasthan and even in Haryana where local machinery is incapable and infighting plagues it.
    2 bjp has always prided in improving vote share in every state even if they have lost. Read Bengal locals etc. Congress had a much higher vote share though less seats. Is that not something to worry? While Yeddyurappa is passionate and tieless worker this truth must hit all lovers of bjp ruled state.
    3. Why is the NOTA so high. Shah must get it that while voters love Modi and bjp as an option the third rate candidates put in the fray by te party at all levels (largely defectors from other parties) shames and ridicules voters which results in NOTA. The original bjp line of party with a difference needs a comeback. The local perception and reality of corruption free governance is not helped by choice of candidates by bjp too.
    4. What is working is only amit shah’ atithmetic Of caste, religion etc. The maximising of this function seem to have been achieved as is seen in the seats won despite lower vote share. Counting more on this is going to cost in 2019.

    This govt may not last. A trust vote can be lost by HDK. If not the govt may fall by the time LS polls come in. But how is the bjp better prepared than now?? Actually they are not prepared at all.

  8. How a democracy works is beyond analysis.People did not wholeheartedly support BJP despite the remarkable work done corruption free administration billions of dollars earned and all enimies silenced but chose to elect currupt inefficient unproven and good for nothing alliance ?
    Strange

  9. Siddi will pull the rug out in 6 months. I will not be surprised to see that happen and a re election called in no time. Bangalore, Mangalore will be the loser ultimately, as neither of the 2 will be concerned about it.

  10. All Kannadigas suffer sleeping sickness. All of them are low iq and does not worry about jihadis, missionaries looting the state. BSY is 75 and bloodsuppy to his brain is less and that is why he was not in touch with Kumaraswamy. A young politician would have kept kumaraswamy in loop and BJP would have been in power. South India is in the grip of church that brainwas hindus to commit harakiri and jihadis are promoted by congress for votes. For looting for 2019 election, the JDS and congress will be like husband and wife. This was a chance lost by idiotic BJP leaders in Karnataka basically due to arrogance. Congress bribed the poor in cities and they voted for congress, so much for lpg cylinders and Modis schemes. Because of the Bank misery and other aadhar misery inflicted by poor implimentation, middle class never came out to vote in cities. BJP failed to put one corrupt in jail and sick Jaitly as finance minister damaged BJP by poor implimentaion of demonitization and GSTN. BJP should have put a healthy one as FM. Congress is specialist in killing medically and cannot ruleout more kidney replacement of bjp leaders

  11. My only worry was why did Eduyurappa succumb to pressures… And resigned early..
    Could have tried… His luck ..
    Who would have believed congress would lose even after a lot of false promises, fake voter ids,money distribution , divide and rule etc….
    But BJP made it into first place …
    Likewise EDI could have tried. Things might have worked otherwise too..

    • BJP could have pulled the rug easily. The BJP leaders seemed to have bigger game plan than Pappu can think off. Let us wait & see.
      Now BJP should plan to buy off all the Khangress hide out places.

  12. I guess congress doesn’t have any other go than to let Kumaraswamy rule. Though there may be clashes they will not let their one and only big state go off their hands.
    But this will let all the people of India to know that in the lok sabha if they let a single regional party gain victory it will prove harmful for the entire nation… because even an EPS (no harm intended) will be made prime minister for the country by congress….even if he has 30 seats. And our supreme court judges would very well nod their heads for this too….(because they are scared of congress… Because they are ones who bully and threaten judges whereas BJP never disrespects the judges and their posts and doesn’t threaten them……
    So as normal citizens who are afraid of goons and stand against soft people these judges will also act the same)
    God is a better judge… But right things have to wait.

    • Every Hindu & every Indian feels sympathy for the saturday i.e. 19-May-2018 event. I believe nature will always do the justice in most deserving way. Let us wait & see. The Khangress & JD(S) alliance is bound to fail miserably. Khangress will strip Kumaraswamy including his inners, to hide himself from public glare for decades to come.

  13. It remains to be seen as to how long this coalition will last. But I feel till the general elections in 2019, there may not be much hiccups as these two parties will not run each other’s shoulder. But will Cong be quiet for one year is a million dollar question.

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