Managing Mankind – Are we headed for another World War? Part 1 of 3

[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]T[/dropcap]here is a misconception in some circles that man is by nature combative and therefore war is inevitable.  Most civilians long for peace.  Most businesses thrive in peaceful conditions.  Just as planning is necessary to fight a war, planning is necessary for world peace; the whole notion that a world war is inevitable to man should be discarded, as wasteful.

A world war has to include the major powers which means the next world war will be nuclear with the possibility of making mankind extinct, or an endangered species.  Even if two minor countries indulge in a nuclear war, the damage would make large tracts of land uninhabitable, as Chernobyl did in 1986; about 1,200 square miles had to be partitioned off and 100,000 evacuated.  This is only one incident, but there were several others starting in the fifties.  There were also military nuclear incidents which Wikipedia.org lists.

The Russians believe, in 2015, that any one of these confrontations could lead to a nuclear war: the Spratly archipelago where 26,000 US troops in Japan and South Korea are ready to contest Chinese ownership of the northern part of the South China Sea.¹

[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]R[/dropcap]ussia also feels that the Sunni-Shia conflict could lead to a nuclear war.  Qatar’s Foreign Minister Khalid al Attiyah is quoted as saying Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey could join Jabhat al Nusra, Al Qaeda, the Taliban and IS. Confronting them would be Russia, Assad’s Syria and Iran, Hesbollah, and their supporters, – the Shia group led by Russia.  Russian Lt. General Yuri Netkachev felt that if diplomacy did not succeed, this war could last a long time.  Presumably, he thought of a conventional war.²    On the other hand, the entry of France and Britain on the side of the “moderate” rebels could lead to a division of Syria into two sectors, which Israel would welcome.

Russia also worries about Ossetia being an issue in a nuclear war.  In any case, Russia is aware that it could be the first target since Mark Milley, the Chief of Staff of the US Army declared, “Russia was the only country in the world that could destroy the United States.”³    To back this claim, two influential magazines. Time, and Forbes, declared that Putin was the most powerful man in the world for the third consecutive time.⁴

General Geradinov, Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, feels that the USA could destroy Russia in minutes, from Turkish bases.  Plan A would be to destroy command centres and Plan B would be to destroy the launchers.⁵

[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]T[/dropcap]hese feelings of an imminent nuclear war are not imaginary.  On two occasions, the world was on the brink of nuclear wars which were prevented by alert men in charge.  In 1962, during the Cuban crisis, Captain William Bassett received a false order to launch 32 Mace B cruise missiles equipped with Mark 28 bombs (70 times more powerful than those dropped in Japan) on Hanoi, Beijing, Pyongyang, and Vladivostok.  The fake order did not match the real one, so Bassett did not carry out the orders.  The Soviets tell of a similar story on their side.⁶

In another case, a US secret file revealed that the world nearly ended in 1983.  An analysis of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board revealed on February 15, 1990 that, “In 1983, we may have inadvertently placed our relations with the Soviet Union on a hair trigger,” with a nuclear training exercise, Able Archer 83.  The Soviets moved their missiles to their launch sites thinking that the exercise was directed at Warsaw Pact countries.  Europe was in danger of being under a nuclear cloud.⁷

Owing to the Ukrainian, Palestinian, Syrian and Iranian crises, Russia was not taking chances.  On November 6, 2015, the Russian Academy of the General Staff started 19-day courses for mobilization readiness.  The Ministry of Culture, Development of the Far East, Communications, Kalmykia Russia’s only District where Buddhism is practised by the majority, Crimea, Tuva and Murmansk were the first group of trainees.  There were also large scale exercises to test the readiness of the country for mobilization.⁸   Putin was preparing for a possible World War III.⁹  He, in addition, gave conscription orders for 150 K, while Iran and Hezbollah were preparing for a ground offensive.¹⁰

[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]W[/dropcap]hile the Russian camp is expecting a World War III, Germany’s Angela Merkel thinks that the migration problem in the Balkans could trigger a world war.  She wants Turkey to stop the flow of migrants, mainly from Syria, into Europe and is prepared to offer financial aid and a re-opening of the dormant issue of Turkey joining the European Union.

The consequences of a nuclear war is the major reason for planning for pax in terra.  If one studies the Second World War, one notices that much effort and expense was spent on a worthless exercise: the enemy, Germany, was given Marshall Aid to recover while an ally, Russia, became the next enemy.  By and large, more money is spent on war than on peace.  Warmongers usually urge their governments to go to war on the pretext that an asymmetrical war will be short: often, it is never short.  Moreover, after a war, nation-building has to be follow the peace process.  Warmongers benefit from wars through investing in industries involved in wars, contracts, and blatant stealing.

Since the world has become increasingly unstable, it has become necessary to constantly plan for peace and orderly government.  If wealthy nations can display and use sophisticated weapons and fighter planes, the response in asymmetrical warfare is seemingly cowardly acts like bombing civilian planes and other soft targets.  Frequent disruptions like these are intended to wear out a sophisticated opponent.

[dropcap color=”#008040″ boxed=”yes” boxed_radius=”8px” class=”” id=””]M[/dropcap]ankind has therefore to work assiduously to removing the barriers to a peaceful world.  Peace is attainable by timely adjustments to the running of the institutions that we have, national and international, and the best practices of different nations have to be harnessed for maximum efficiency.

Ideally, a well-run nation-state will focus its development on secular issues for the benefit of all its citizens. A statistical Department is absolutely necessary as analyses and decisions have to be made on a daily basis. We need to organize, analyse, and interpret large complex data to solve real world problems, which together amount to creating new Knowledge.  Most governments have statistical departments but they are often not exploited to the full.  National mega-data is needed for every government department to function well. Goals have to be set for each administrative unit; when these are not met the Centre has to step in to eliminate inefficiencies. Richer countries can hire out their computing capabilities to poorer countries.  China showed the world that drastic population control was needed to improve the standards of its impoverished masses; changes were made at an appropriate time. It is not surprising that China saw the need to have the largest computer, Tianhe-2, which runs on Linux at 33-86 petaflops (quadrillions of calculations per second.)


Bibliography

1. Lyuba Lulko, “What kind of war can USA and China start?” pravda.ru, November 2, 2015.
2. “Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey may start World War Three,” pravda.ru, 23.10.15.
3. “US general explains why only Russia can destroy the USA,” pravda.ru, November 3, 2015.
4. “Forbes ranks Putin the world’s most powerful man for third consecutive times, pravda.ru, 26.12. 2015.
5. Inna Novikova, “USA harbours plans to decapitate Russia within minutes,” pravda.ru, 26.12.2014.
6. “USA was seconds away from striking nuclear blow on USSR,” pravda.ru, 29.10.15.
7. Rob Waugh, “The world nearly ended in 1983, Secret US Government file reveals,” pravda.ru, November 12, 2015.
8. “Russian Defense Ministry prepares officials for World War III,” pravda.ru, November 6, 2015.
9. “Russian Defense Ministry prepares officials for World War III,” pravda.ru, 6.11.2015.
10. Will Stewart and Simon Tomlinson, “Putin decrees drafting 150,000 conscripts into the Russian military…bombers,” dailymail.co.uk,

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Henry D'Souza

Henry D'Souza is a prolific author who has written over 60 papers and 4 books, of which 2 books, 1 booklet and 28 papers were published. He is a distinguished sportsman, having represented Kenya in Field Hockey and also played tennis for the country.

Henry currently resides in Canada.

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