- Two former Indian Police Service (IPS) officers are steering Tamil Nadu politics against the MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) governance.
- All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) founded by M G Ramachandran and Jayalalitha, is about to break into four pieces.
- DMK is under political pressure after the resounding victory of Gujarat.
- Modi victory of 156 seats in the Assembly has rattled the southern parties.
- A strong Centre is seen as a negative by state parties such as the DMK, YSRCP, BSR, and TMC.
TN Politics is undergoing a dramatic change
Tamil Nadu politics has undergone a dramatic change. Never before in the history of Tamil Nadu which repeated alternatively either DMK or AIADMK, either Karunanidhi or Jayalalitha, has witnessed the clout of two police officers as the arch-rivals.
Should the DMK be scared of these two former IPS officers?
Amit Shah, Union Home Minister briefed the two former IPS officers before they were assigned for Tamil Nadu, in 2021, that a foundation is laid, a base is created, for an anti-DMK and Hindutva nationalism narrative.
Real-time political leaders in Opposition space like AIADMK, NTK, and PMK are all relegated, Tamil Nadu is now blamed for serial blasts, and religious conversions, with the National Investigation Agency (NIA) raids, are taking place daily in the state.
Drug menace
A few are accusing the drug trade is so rampant. The sorry state of affairs in Tamil Nadu politics is that there is no effective opposition to go on the offensive against the ruling DMK dispensation. The Tamil Nadu politics which was ridden with Dravidian ideology is now shrinking, whereas the BJP is trying to capture the space of Jayalalitha.
DMK’s 18-month report card – a lot of Fs
In the past 18 months, the DMK was engaged in an anti-Centre, anti-Narendra Modi narrative. The state finances are in a precarious situation. No major foreign direct investments have come into the state. Frequent clashes with the Centre to claim the GST taxes. Recently, the big industrialist group TATA’s Chairman Chandrasekharan Natarajan had a meeting with Chief Minister M K Stalin and assured the state of huge investments. Interestingly, a few DMK Ministers murmur why Stalin has kept his son Udhayanidhi in the meeting in 2023 while in 2022 when the same TATA Chief Chandrasekharan was meeting M K Stalin the son-in-law Sabareesan was participating in the high-level discussions, Opposition parties questioned this dynasts’ control over the DMK party and the government[1]. The ruling party DMK has ‘fixed alliance partners’. It has a progressive alliance with Congress Party, VCK, MDMK, and both the communists. Unfortunately, these opposition parties are not serving the causes of voters. Recently, the Rahul Gandhi Bharat Jodo Yatra began from Tamil Nadu. It did not create a political impact.
Rajni-Kamal Cinema domination
Rajnikant refused to float a political party. But Kamal Hassan was at the forefront. He fought against the DMK in the 2019 Assembly polls. But in 18 months the Kamal Hassan party MNM Makkal Needhi Mayyam did not make any progress. A new trend in the Tamil cine world is the emergence of Joseph Vijay. The tinsel world is projecting Vijay as a challenger to Superstar Rajnikant. And it appears that Vijay will not follow DMK’s dictum.
Who is the current Superstar? Rajni or Vijay?
A public debate is on about who is TN’s superstar today. Tamil superstar Vijay has emerged as the most popular Tamil male star in the latest survey conducted by media consulting firm Ormax Media. He’s followed by Ajith Kumar, Suriya, Dhanush, and Vikram. The twin pillars of Tamil cinema Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth feature in the list too. However, they hold the 8th and 10th positions in the top 10 list. Vijay’s films have consistently created new records at the Tamil Nadu box office. He’s one of the few superstars who can guarantee minimum success for all the stakeholders in the value chain. Vijay has political ambitions too, unlike Rajni but similar to Kamal Hassan.
Kamal joins BJY
Recently Kamal Hassan joining the Rahul Gandhi Bharat Jodo Yatra has created a controversy in the state. The reason is that Kamal is trying to form an alliance without the DMK as he is being promoted by Viduthalai Chiruttaikal Katchi (VCK) Leader ‘Thiruma’. Tamil Nadu elected 38 MPs for the DMK alliance out of 39. But what did the 38 DMK MPs do to get a major project for the state of Tamil Nadu? The answer is a big zero.
After Jaya, AIADMK 4 ho Gaya
The sad commentary on the AIADMK is that Tamil Nadu has no main opposition. Intense fighting amongst senior AIADMK leaders, on a caste basis, is enervating the party. In the last 18 months, four groups can be seen to emerge. All four are claiming the two leaves election symbol of AIADMK. All four groups are afraid of openly challenging DMK. These four groups are separated by their caste combinations, such as Thevars, Gounder, and sub castes. This is the reality of the AIADMK. The opposition space vacuum has now been taken over by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Who are the 2 IPS officers and why are they in TN?
Governor Ravindra Narain Ravi
These two former IPS officers are: Governor of Tamil Nadu Ravindra Narain Ravi, a Bihari and a former sleuth in the Intelligence Bureau in New Delhi, and K Annamalai, a former IPS officer. Governor Ravi is sitting on 25 bills passed by the Tamil Nadu Assembly. And interestingly the same R N Ravi is all set to address the session of the Tamil Nadu Assembly on January 9, Monday, in Tamizh. Ravi will read the script adapted by the M K Stalin Council of Ministers. R N Ravi is propagating Sanadhan Dharma and temple worship in the land of Dravidian culture which is opposed to the majority and Brahmins and is seeking a separate state of Tamil Nadu.
K Annamalai
The other IPS officer is K Annamalai, the President of the Tamil Nadu Bharatiya Janata Party. Annamalai is now spearheading anti-DMK propaganda. Annamalai is all set to undertake a padayatra in April, to cover all 234 Assembly and 39 Lok Sabha constituencies, to strengthen the BJP.
The Wrist Watch Controversy – people living in glass houses…
Annamalai is embroiled in a controversy over his wrist watch which is of Rafale make, estimated to cost about four lakhs. Annamalai bravely handled this charge to say that he is ready to upload the receipt on his website. He also went to the extent of saying that the wrist watch will be auctioned in public. The money fetched from the auction will be donated to the Chief Ministers’ natural calamity relief fund. But the clever Annamalai put a rider – Can Udhayanidhi, the son of Chief Minister M K Stalin be ready to do the same with his wrist watch, which is much costlier than his (Annamalai’s)?
Why these two illustrations were highlighted? The reason is simple. To explain that no implementation of major projects nor attraction of investments.
DMK failed to implement its manifesto
Annamalai, a 36-year-old former IPS officer, who resigned from service in 2019 to contest the Tamil Nadu State Assembly elections is spearheading the fight against DMK, reminding the people every day that the DMK has failed to implement its manifesto.
What is the rating of DMK and its rule in Tamil Nadu?
M K Stalin won a landslide victory in 2021 to capture the Tamil Nadu Assembly. People’s verdict was so clear that a slight edge for M K Stalin at the time of polls turned into a massive victory. DMK party made tall claims in their manifesto, knowing fully well that they would not be able to fulfill them. Promises such as No reduction of diesel price, No abolition of the NEET exam, and No Rs.1000 cash for every woman voter remain just on paper. Needless to say, the voters are disgruntled. The administration is crumbling due to internal strife in DMK. Family politics with the elevation of Udhayanidhi as Minister is the new twist in the saga of internal DMK strife. Crime is at its peak. Even DMK MPs were put in jail by courts. Last week a senior DMK leader Masthead was murdered. BJP is blaming corruption at the core.
What is the scenario for 2023 and 2024?
The Political scenario is fragile. Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) which dominates the Vanniyars in 6-8 districts in Tamil Nadu is now planning to leave the AIADMK alliance and switch over to the DMK alliance. The DMK will of course welcome them with a big hug, but it comes at a price. The DMK will lose Dalit votes with the possible exit of VCK (Viduthalai Chiruttaikal Katchi). Obviously, VCK will have to cross over to AIADMK. But to which group? Edapati Palanisamy group or O Pannerselvam group? DMK is also going to be soft on Centre. The virulent attack on Centre has slowed down.
Is M K Stalin adopting the styles of Jagan Reddy and Mamata Banerjee? Chief Minister MK Stalin’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November 2022 is said to be a turning point. Stalin also openly admitted that his health is fragile, and his party leader’s daily press statements were worrisome and those utterances were not giving him proper sleep. Such open statements make the DMK cadre think that Udhayanidhi is all set to take control of the DMK organization and slowly Udhayanidhi will be elevated as Deputy Chief Minister. Whichever side one may look at or argue M K Stalin has positioned his son Udhaynidhi on centre stage for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
And that is Tamil Nadu politics for you.
Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
Reference:
[1] Tata Sons chairman calls on CM – Jan 01, 2023, The Hindu
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Demography, demography and demography. Count the Christians, Cryptochristians and the Mohammedans. DMK will win – as surely as night follows day. It is no rocket science.