UPDATE at 9:30 PM IST . Fast moving events in AIADMK after TTV victory
A political churning process began in Tamil Nadu immediately after Sunday’s declaration of result of the RK Nagar By-Poll held on December 21. The surprise victory registered by TTV Dinkaran in the poll has created confusion and chaos in the already confounded political landscape of Tamil Nadu. “It has become a no-mans land. The stage is set for horse trading and political shadow boxing,” said N Kalyanasundaram, a political commentator, and veteran scribe.
Substantiating the observations made by Kalyanasundaram, the process of horse trading and auctioning of MLAs began in right earnest on Sunday evening. Balasubramanian Senguttuvan, the member of parliament representing the Vellore Lok Sabha constituency who had jumped the fence and joined the Edappadi Palanisway faction of the AIADMK from the Sasikala camp is all set to get back to the Chinnamma camp. Immediately after the result was announced, Senguttuvan rang up TTV Dinakaran and told him that his loyalty was with Chinnamma V K Sasikala.
In addition to Senguttuvan, more than a dozen MLAs are in touch with Dinakaran. The outflow from the Edappadi Palanisway-O Panneerselvam faction may begin anytime from now, a source close to Dinakaran told Team PGurus. A former minister who is a widely respected AIADMK leader may announce his decision to join the Dinakaran camp on Monday. Look out for the movements of S Semmalai as he is thoroughly disenchanted with the Palaniswamy government’s track record of the past ten months.
Political Tamil Nadu would say Hail Mary to the AIADMK government led by Edappadi Palaniswamy during the Midnight Mass of Sunday to usher in the Christmas festivities of 2017. TTV Dinakaran, who contested as an independent candidate in the R K Nagar by-poll held on December 21 scored a surprise win by humbling all his 58 opponents. Dinakaran polled 89.103 votes out of the 1,77,074 votes cast in the December 21 election. He was declared elected by a margin of 40,707 votes. The DMK which had polled 57,673 votes sans any allies other than the Congress in the 2016 assembly election could poll only 24,651 votes in this by-poll which substantiates the doubts of many political commentators that there was large scale en-block transfer of votes from the DMK camp to Dinakaran.
The result of the RK Nagar by-poll has given rise to certain questions which the DMK leadership may find difficult to answer.
The BJP finished a poor sixth behind NOTA and Naam Tamilar, a fringe outfit led by evangelists and proselytizers. Karu Nagarajan, the BJP candidate could get only 1368 votes. The BJP leaders in Tamil Nabu, as usual, took recourse in blaming the money and muscle power of the Dinakaran camp. But senior BJP leader Dr. Subramanian Swamy issued a wake-up call to the national leadership through his twitter message. “TN BJP record: A national ruling party gets a quarter of NOTA’s vote. Time for accountability,” said Dr. Swamy in his message.
TN BJP record: A national ruling party gets a quarter of NOTA’s vote. Time for accountability
— Subramanian Swamy (@Swamy39) December 24, 2017
The result of the RK Nagar by-poll has given rise to certain questions which the DMK leadership may find difficult to answer. The party chose Maruthu Ganesh, a political lightweight to contest the RK Nagar by-poll instead of Shimla Muthuchozhan, who gave Jayalalithaa a scare in the 2016 assembly election. The DMK leadership has not uttered a word to the question why Shimla was overlooked for the R K Nagar by-poll.
Thol Thirumavalavan, the Viduthalai Chiruthai Katchi (VCK) leader blamed Stalin for the poor performance of the DMK candidate in the by-election. Senior AIADMK leaders told PGurus that there was a game plan conceived by Stalin for the crucial by-poll. Stalin had planned to create chaos in the AIADMK by making Dinakaran win at R K Nagar. He had told during the campaign that the Tamil Nadu government would fall in three months and there would be an election to the assembly. “The DMK would win the election and form a government,” he had declared on the last day of the campaign.
But political developments after the RK Nagar by-election point to another scenario emerging in Tamil Nadu. The AIADMK could see a churning with many of the MLAs and MPs preferring to align with Dinakaran which may see the ouster of the OPS-EPS government. “There was nothing other than the tacit support extended by the DMK for the win of Dinakaran. This is similar to what happened in the Delhi assembly election of 2015 when the Congress transferred its votes to the AAP to embarrass the BJP and Prime Minister Modi,” said M Gopalakrishnan, a political commentator based in Chennai.
A comment made by senior BJP leader Dr. Subramanian Swamy has hit the DMK camp like an avalanche. “Now that the RK Nagar election is over, the two factions of the AIADMK should resolve their differences and work together so that they could continue in office till 2021,” said Dr. Swamy. This could dampen the spirit of Stalin who was dreaming of an early swearing-in as chief minister of Tamil Nadu.
The initial euphoria after the 2G Spectrum scam verdict behind them, the DMK is faced with a lot of issues over the last two days. Rajathi Ammal, the mother of Kanimozhi, who was acquitted in the 2G Spectrum case along with A Raja, has demanded that her daughter should be elevated in the party hierarchy. In another development, the Maran brothers, Dayanidhi and Kalanidhi, the grandnephews of Karunanidhi were absent during the festivities held to celebrate the acquittal of Kanimozhi and Raja.
Thambi Durai the Lok Sabha deputy speaker, who is an expert in identifying which side of the bread is buttered reacted immediately after the by-poll result. “This is a result against the 2G Spectrum Scam verdict,” said Thampi Durai at Chennai. Sellur Raju, a minister in the Edappadi Palanisway government, said all differences of opinion should be resolved through discussions and the party should work unitedly.
Readers should not get surprised if they see reports about ministers Raju, Vijaya Bhaskar(health minister), Udaya Kumar, Ma Foi Pandyarajan, O S Manian and others queuing up in front of the palatial house of Dinakaran at Adyar in Chennai.